Cigarettes in Jordan, 2017 is an analytical report by GlobalData that provides extensive and highly detailed current and future market trends in the Jordanian market. The report offers Market size and structure of the overall and per capita consumption based upon a unique combination of industry research, fieldwork, market sizing analysis, and our in-house expertise.
Contraband has been a major problem for the authorities and is widely acknowledged to have been depressing legitimate sales volumes. As of 2012, 37% of total sales were accounted for by non-duty paid sales, but this fell to 28.4% in 2013, after manufacturer price cuts, although tax driven price increases in February 2014 resulted in another upturn in smuggling to over 34% of consumption, although this level fell back again in 2015. Based on duty paid volumes, per capita consumption averaged 892 pieces/year in 2015 but had reached 1,525 pieces/year at its peak in 2008. Including estimated contraband, the true level would currently be around 1,169 pieces/year.
The longer-term prospects for the Jordanian cigarette market are for recovery after 2017, with the economy expected to continue to grow albeit at only a moderate rate.
Although the timing and extent of future tax and price rises is uncertain, if these occur, they will encourage another upturn in smuggling and a down turn in duty paid demand.
Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 3.3% in 2017 and then 3.8% % in 2018, with future growth of around 4% projected.
Inflation which was almost static in 2015 is expected to rise at just over 2.5% in 2017 and stay around this level.
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