Namibia Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017
An improving economic outlook will bolster Namibia's consumer outlook throughout 2017, with private consumption remaining a key component in growth. Furthermore, elevated inflation levels over the past year are moderating, providing a boost to spending power. Real private consumption growth will remain promising over 2017 and beyond, representing stronger income gains. However, high unemployment poses a significant downside risk to our outlook.
Namibia's consumer outlook will experience stronger growth in 2017 on the back of strengthening real GDP growth. Namibia's economic environment has remained fairly stable since 2010, maintaining a 5.7% y-o-y annual average growth rate between 2010 and 2015. However, the country has seen negative growth over the end of 2016 and into early 2017, which will have a detrimental impact. Over 2017 as a whole, BMI forecasts real GDP growth to pick up to 3.0%, up from 0.2% in 2016. However, much of the return to growth will be based on increased uranium production. Economic growth over 2017 will also be significantly below our 2010-2015 annual average. However, through to the end of our forecast period (2021), we forecast that the country will hold sustainable GDP growth, presenting steady returns for consumer-facing industries.
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