Iraq: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issue.
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overvie.
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the countr.
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic deman.
- Private consumptio.
- Fixed investmen.
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP.
- Government consumptio.
- Exports of goods and service.
- Imports of goods and service.
- Consumer price.
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP.
- Government budget (% of GDP.
- Short-term interest rates (%.
- Long-term interest rates (%.
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar.
- Exchange rate (vs. euro.
- Economic Overvie.
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecast.
- Charts and Table.
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growt.
- Monthly industrial outpu.
- Business and consumer confidenc.
- Unemployment rat.
- Retail sale.
- Prices and earning.
- Consumption and investmen.
- Government balance and deb.
- GDP and industrial productio.
- Monetary policy and bond yield.
- Background Information on the countr.
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current positio.
Although the advance of the Islamic State (IS) jihadist movement appears to have been halted for now, helped by airstrikes by the US and its allies (targeting both IS forces and the assets it has seized, thereby limiting its revenues), Iraq remains divided and at risk of more political turmoil in 2015. Coupled with the plunge in oil prices in H2 2014, which will hit Iraq hard, this means that the economic outlook remains bleak. As a result, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2015 a little further to 2%, from 2.4% previously. And we now estimate that the economy grew by just 0.5% in 2014 (down from the earlier forecast of over 5%). This is slightly higher than the IMF’s latest estimate of a 0.5% fall, with a rise in oil output last year providing some support, although it is as yet very unclear how the loss of territory and resources to IS will affect the national accounts. For 2016-18, we expect growth of around 3% a year, but much will depend upon the how the political situation evolves.