Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
A slowdown in GDP growth to just 1.8% in Q4 2014 partly reflected an unusually strong rise a year earlier but was also due to worsening external conditions that will persist through 2015. So although 2014’s full-year growth of 4.8% maintained the cyclical upswing from a low point in 2013, expansion is now forecast to slow to just 2.2% in 2015 before picking up to 4.3% in 2016, with a return to the medium-term trend of 5-5.5% delayed until 2017. The reduction in our forecast has been driven by a setback in rebuilding relations with Russia and weaker demand in CIS countries, both of which are dampening prospects for exports and investment. At the same time, sharp falls in the GEL exchange rate since November will lift inflation back to over 4%. In addition, tight IMF fiscal targets require further budget restriction this year and the need to contain inflation pressures makes early interest rate cuts unlikely.
- : The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year