Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

​Last year was a strong period for commodity prices, but 2021 has started more cautiously despite a backdrop of buoyant financial markets and hopes about strong support from central bank and government stimulus measures. While oil prices have jumped, other major markets such as gold and iron ore have seen prices drop as the US$ strengthened.  Oil prices have surged as the threat from the Covid19 virus appears to be diminishing, raising hopes for a strong rebound in transport and travel. While we are forecasting strong growth for oil demand this year, some sectors such as international travel will take years to get back to normal. On the supply side, OPEC+ oil producers have continued to act together, with very high compliance compared to agreed cuts so far. The market also received a boost in January when Saudi Arabia agreed to unilaterally reduce output in February and March by 1Mb/day to keep the market tight. However, this could be counterproductive if it is just offset by higher output from Russia and the US. We believe that prices have overshot fair value and look for a pullback as the year develops.           ​


​The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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