Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

After a few strong months, the commodities complex pulled back decisively in September and early October, as risk aversion grew, equity markets fell and the US$ strengthened. Also bearish was that China's appetite for commodities seems to have passed a peak. Oil prices fell as rising Covid-19 cases in places like Europe (as well as stubbornly high US infection rates) have increased fears that travel will remain restricted for longer. A final bearish development was that Chinese imports of crude oil softened in September and orders for October look weak. On the supply side it is clear from the latest US survey data that the average producer will not survive with WTI prices below US$50pb. The OPEC+ group is acting cooperatively, but there is probably still a long way to go before the oil market sees any significant tightness. Gold prices were knocked back by US$ strength in September. Inflation fears remain elevated, but the US Treasuries implied inflation forecast suggests that markets are still betting on a benign outlook for now. The recent correction has taken gold below the previous record high, which supports our bearish medium-term view on the market.


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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