Commodity Price Forecasts

Commodity Price Forecasts

​​​The past month has seen a sharp fall in prices across the whole commodities complex apart from gold. Markets moved down swiftly as the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China saw demand plummet in some areas. Travel restrictions in the country were widespread and economic activity stalled in areas around Wuhan. Oil prices led the way down, which is not surprising given the market's heavily reliance on the travel/transport sector. While the sharp sell-off in commodities was understandable, some markets appear to have been unfairly marked down. Some oil demand has been lost this year and will not be recovered. For example, restricted travel around the Chinese New Year holiday will cut fuel consumption (including jet fuel, gasoline and diesel) and will not be made up in the months ahead even if government stimulus measures are effective. But other areas of demand for aluminium and copper, for example, should not be badly impacted for the year, as consumers can purchase goods such as cars, air conditioning units and white goods at some other time. Generally speaking, fears about a demand crunch look overdone given the recent backdrop of renewed stimulus in China and other countries.  In oil markets, prices are down sharply but we think there is a strong chance of a rebound once the virus situation is brought under control in China. Moreover, OPEC+ will adjust supply if necessary, at its next meeting in March. Libya is now added to the list of countries – notably Iran and Venezuela – where production is sharply lower, which will make rebalancing the market that much easier. The demand situation should also improve markedly in the months ahead in China as travel returns to normal. ​


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Commodity Price Forecasts.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. Commodity Price Forecasts
Overview of recent developments in the oil and industrial metals markets.
Forecast tables showing the latest data for the following:
Oil: UK Brent oil, nominal prices; UK Brent oil, real 2005 prices; oil market overview table with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data.
Non-oil commodity prices: nominal prices, real 2005 prices.
Non-oil commodity price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars: food, beverages, agriculture, metals, and fertilizer.
Base metal price indices and y-o-y growth rates: tables and charts of data with five years of historical data (by quarter) and two years of forecast data. The tables include the following in US dollars and Euro: aluminum, copper, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, and lead.
Recent developments tables and charts showing the latest data for the following:
Energy: UK Brent oil, daily data; UK Brent oil, monthly data; world oil prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for WT1, UK Brent, Dubai, Urals; oil product prices: eight years of historical data (with monthly data for the previous year) for diesel, gasoline, gas oil, residual fuel oil, jet kero, and benzene; commodity market price table in US dollars: nine years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for coal, UK Brent, and natural gas.
Base metals: commodity market prices for base metals, daily data; commodities price index for base metals, monthly data; commodity market prices for base metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data on past two years) for: aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, iron ore, and lead; commodity market prices, steel (hot rolled coil), ten years of historical US dollars and Euro pricing data (with monthly data for past two years) for: Europe, Asia, and North America.
Precious metals: commodity market prices for precious metals, ten years of historical data (with monthly data for past two years) for: palladium, platinum, gold, and silver.
The Economist commodity price index, aggregates: ten years of historical data in US dollars (with monthly data for past two years) for: all items, food, industrial, non-food, and metals.

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