PESTLE Insights: Macroeconomic Outlook Report - Iran

PESTLE Insights: Macroeconomic Outlook Report - Iran

Summary

Mining, manufacturing and utilities contributed 32.0% to Iran’s gross value added (GVA) in 2018, followed by financial intermediation, real estate and business activities (16.6%), and wholesale, retail and hotels (13.4%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 25.5%, 26.3% and 24.3%, respectively, in 2019.

Overall, the Tehran Stock Exchange index exhibited an increasing trend over the last year. As of November 20, 2019, TEPIX Index stood at 304,997, compared to 176,458.7 on November 20, 2018.

Four major provinces generated around 49.1% of Iran’s GDP and comprised 37.0% of the country’s population, as of 2016

Reimposition of sanctions on Iran from November 2018 onwards has significantly impacted foreign investment inflows into the country

Scope

  • As per the Global Competitiveness Index for 2019, Iran’s infrastructure ranked 80th out of 141 nations
  • China is financing billions of dollars worth of Chinese-led projects in Iran, making deep inroads into the economy
Reasons to buy
  • Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies the potentials of the country as an investment destination by analyzing the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental (PESTLE) structure.
  • PESTLE Insights provides 360 degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand the market dynamics, business potentials and direction of operations
  • Along with providing the country’s snapshot, the report captures the risk factors pertaining to the macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic and social structure effectiveness, technology & infrastructure and natural and geographic aspects that might impact business.
  • This report also highlights key clusters/cities which contribute significantly to the country GDP and population along with major companies’ presence in these areas.


Did You Know? 4
Country Highlights 5
Country Snapshot 7
PESTLE Insights 22
Political Landscape 23
Economic Landscape 24
Social Landscape 31
Technological Landscape 34
Legal Landscape 37
Environmental Landscape 38
Outlook 39
List of Figures
Exhibit 1: Iran’s Performance in terms of its Country Risk Analysis in Comparison to the Middle East and North Africa and the World 11
Exhibit 2: Performance Overview (Score: 1-100) 11
Exhibit 3: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 12
Exhibit 4: TEPIX Index (November 2018 - November 2019) 14
Exhibit 5: Key Sectors’ Contribution to the Economy (2014-2021f) 15
Exhibit 6: FDI Flows Inward and Outward (2014-2018) 17
Exhibit 7: FDI Stock Inward and Outward (2014-2018) 17
Exhibit 8: Tax Holidays by Sector (2018) 19
Exhibit 9: Key Infrastructure Indicators 21
Exhibit 10: Real GDP and Household Consumption Growth Rate (2014-2021f) 25
Exhibit 11: Real GDP Growth Rate Comparison (2018) 25
Exhibit 12: Export, Import and Trade Balance (2014-2021f) 26
Exhibit 13: Current Account Balance (2014-2021f) 26
Exhibit 14: Top Three Commodity Exports, % of Total Exports (2013-2017) 27
Exhibit 15: Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of Their Distillation, % Share of the World’s Total (2017) 27
Exhibit 16: Interest Rates (January 2014 - November 2019) 29
Exhibit 17: Exchange Rate and Inflation (2014-2021f) 29
Exhibit 18: Public Finance (2014-2021f) 30
Exhibit 19: General Government Debt (2014-2021f) 30
Exhibit 20: Employment/Unemployment (2014-2021f) 32
Exhibit 21: Labor Force Participation Rate (2013-2018) 32
Exhibit 22: Male and Female Labor Force Participation (2014-2021f) 32
Exhibit 23: Rural/Urban Share of Total Population (2000, 2010, 2020) 33
Exhibit 24: Age-group Share of Total Population (2000, 2010, 2020) 33
Exhibit 25: Gender Split (2000, 2010, 2020) 33
Exhibit 26: Internet Users % of Total Population, Mobile and Broadband Penetration Rate (2018) 35
Exhibit 27: Number of Patents Granted Per Million Persons (2018) 36
Exhibit 28: High-technology Exports (% of Total Exports) (2018 or Latest Data Available) 36
Exhibit 29: Doing Business in Iran 2020 37
Exhibit 30: Corruption Perceptions Index (Rankings) (2018) 37
Exhibit 31: CO2 Emissions (2011-2017) 38

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