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Russia 2020: Outlook & Scenarios

Russia 2020: Outlook & Scenarios

Overview

In the anticipated absence of structural reforms that would raise economic prospects, Russia’s economy will grow on the back of gradually rising commodity prices supported by general macroeconomic stability.

Tighter political control will remain the top priority for the Russian government, with all other considerations—including economic considerations—subservient. Thus, highly conservative economic policies focused on stability will shape the market while growth will be modest during this period because reforms are highly unlikely.

Businesses can capture additional opportunities in the next three years, but should be prepared to win through superior execution rather than by benefiting from a significant recovery in the market.

What you will learn

  • What are the 4 key trends businesses need to prepare for
  • How to defend against emerging macroeconomic and geopolitical risks
  • Understand how to take action now with proven strategies


Executive Summary
Understanding Russia's Trajectory
  Russia Remains a Top EMEA Opportunity
  Russia Should Remain in Global Portfolios
  Political Environment Will Tighten Further
  Foreign Relations Will Aid Political Stability
  Economic Stability Will Be Maintained9-
  Operating Environment Will Likely Worsen12-
  Consumer Demand Outlook Will Remain Weak
  Opportunities Remain Amid Weak Growth
  Only the Government Can Break the Cycle
Russia 2020: Scenarios Overview17-
  Base-Case Scenario: Stable Stagnation
  Upside Scenario: Cautious Recovery
  Downside Scenario: Energy Collapse
Key Events Could Disrupt Russia's Outlook22-
  Disruptor 1: China Loses Control
  Disruptor 2: Oil Price Rebound
  Disruptor 3: Oil Prices Drop
  Disruptor 4: Palace Coup
Business Strategies in Russia Need to Evolve28-
About Frontier Strategy Group

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