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Plan B For Mexico: Scenarios to Monitor

Plan B For Mexico: Scenarios to Monitor

Overview

Mexico confronts increasing uncertainty over the pace of its economic performance as the potentially dangerous ramifications of the new Trump administration’s protectionist measures compound interest rate hikes, inflation, and currency volatility.

While most companies have seen limited direct impact on their businesses beyond the effect of peso depreciation, most are continuing to develop contingency plans to mitigate severely disruptive political and trade-related risks, while evaluating the potential fallout on Mexico’s domestic politics and business environment over the next two years.

What you will learn

  • What are the top 2017-18 scenarios to prepare for
  • Forecasts for Base Case, Upside, and Downside scenarios
  • Pragmatic actions companies should take right now to protect their business


Executive Summary
Mexico is Driving Growing Unease
  Business Environment Grows More Complex
  Mexico's Outlook is Clouded by Risk
External and Domestic Disruptors
  Mexico 2017-2018 Scenarios
  NAFTA is No Longer a Given for Mexico
  Trump's Protectionist Options
  Protectionism vs. NAFTA Modernization
  NAFTA Scenarios for Mexico 2017-
  Political Risk is Rising in Mexico
  The PRI is Unlikely to Remain in Power
  Populist Victory is Most Likely
  Political Scenarios for Mexico 2017-
Scenarios: Forecasts and Actions to Take
  Mexico 2017-2018 Scenarios18-
  Base Case: Populist Uncertainty20-
  Upside Base Case: Status Quo22-
  Upside Case: Back in Business24-
  Downside Case: Trade War26-
Post 2018 Outlook28-
Implications for Multinationals: Contingency & Scenario Planning
  The Business Case for Contingency Planning
  Contingency Planning Methodology
  Contingency Planning Process
  Scenario Planning Processes
  Market Monitoring Processes
About Frontier Strategy Group

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