2016 Central Europe Outlook

Executive Summary

Section 1: 2016 Central Europe Outlook & Main Drivers

  FSG View on Central Europe

  Central Europe Differs Radically from CIS

  Is Central European Growth Sustainable

  Driver 1: Eurozone Growth

  Driver 2: Consumer Demand

  Driver 3: Low Inflation Environment

  Driver 4: Low Interest Rates

  Driver 5: Public Spending

  Driver 6: Political Shifts

  Recommendations for Action

Section 2: Country Outlooks

  Poland Outlook

  Hungary Outlook

  Romania Outlook

Section 3: Scenarios & Disruptors of Performance in 2016

  Central Europe in 2016: Scenarios Overview

  Central Europe in 2016: Disruptor Summary

  Disruptor #1: Eurozone Recession

  Disruptor #2: Schengen Disintegration

  Disruptor #3: China Financial Crisis

About Frontier Strategy Group

2016 Central Europe Outlook

Overview

Central European markets (including countries in both Central and Southeastern Europe) are enjoying improving growth, assisted by stable export demand from the EU and rising domestic purchasing power.

The region’s relative insulation from the global trends affecting emerging markets this year makes it unique, and the likelihood of any major disruptive risks to its growth is low.

Multinational companies will increasingly look for profitable opportunities in Central Europe, causing competition to rise. All of these trends will likely continue well beyond 2016, meaning firms can set in place strategic plans this year that will be relevant for the region for the longer term.

What you will learn

• What are the main drivers shaping the outlook for Central Europe
• How will the country-level outlooks for Poland, Hungary and Romania evolve
• Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region