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Cookies - US - September 2015

Cookies - US - September 2015

"Cookie sales are on a general upward slope, with healthier cookies braced to experience the strongest growth through 2020 as the segment leverages its strong appeal among the category’s biggest demographic: young families. Standard cookies will remain the largest segment, as consumers embrace them as affordable indulgences for themselves and their families."

Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report covers the following areas:

Cookie sales rise as consumers look to healthier and premium options
Public problems for private label
Parents factor health into premium purchases


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 2: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
Figure 3: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
Figure 5: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
Figure 6: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Cookie sales to surpass $9 billion
Healthy growth for healthy cookies
Private label declines
Market size and forecast
Healthy cookie sales to rise, standard cookies remain the category leader
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Standard cookies dominate, premium performance depends on economy
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Healthy sales remain
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Premium benefiting from slowly improving economy
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Sales of private label cookies in decline
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, in $ millions, 2015, % change versus 2013 sales in parentheses
Market perspective
Consumer snacking behavior trends healthier
Figure 14: Consumer opinions of snacking and sweets, winter 2011-15
Snack bars could encroach upon healthy cookies
Figure 15: Most often eaten, by age, November 2014
Market factors
Obesity concerns may lead to healthier choices
Figure 16: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are obese, by gender and age, and obesity grade, 2009-12
Kids and cookies
Figure 17: US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Hispanic Millennials over index on packaged cookies
Figure 18: Median household income for households headed by Hispanics, by age of householder, 2013
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Mondelēz dominates the cookie category
Cookies could improve health profiles
Potential for organic cookies
Manufacturer sales of cookies
Mondelēz sales improve, as Kellogg’s slip
Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Oreos lead standard cookies, the category’s largest segment
Figure 20: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Standard brands go premium
Figure 21: MULO sales of Pepperidge Farm Milano cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
Figure 22: Mondelēz International, “Oreo Thins Commercial,” TV Ad, August 2015
Health adds to indulgent cookies
Figure 23: MULO sales of Udi’s Gluten-free cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
Figure 24: Cookie launches, by claim, 2012-15
What’s struggling?
Premium growth impacts standard cookie sales
Figure 25: MULO sales of Keebler cookies, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
Figure 26: New cookie introductions, branded versus private label, 2010-15
What’s next?
Organic options could grow the stagnant private label segment
Figure 27: Walmart’s Wild Oats Organic Cookies
Citing health, consumers avoiding artificial
Figure 28: Annie’s Homegrown Bernie’s Farm Animal Cookies
Figure 29: MULO sales of Mondelēz International’s Belvita, 52 weeks ending June 14, 2015
Figure 30: Kellogg’s Nutri-Grain Apple Cinnamon Breakfast Biscuits
Figure 31: Lance Quick Starts Cinnamon Roll Breakfast Biscuit Sandwiches
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Healthy cookies resonate with parents
Millennials regard cookies as affordable indulgences
Artificial-free ingredients resonate with Hispanic Millennial cookie consumers
Cookie Purchase
Households with children lead cookie purchasers
Figure 32: Purchase of cookies, June 2015
Purchase for children
Parents factor health into premium purchases
Figure 33: Cookie purchase for household, by presence of children in household, June 2015
Millennials spending on cookies
Standard cookies garner most Millennial dollars
Figure 34: Cookie purchase for household, by generation, June 2015
Figure 35: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
Healthy cookies and Millennials
Healthier cookies resonate with Millennial parents, especially dads
Figure 36: Cookies purchased for household, by gender, June 2015
Figure 37: Consumption of cookies, by generation, by parents, June 2015
Healthy demands of packaged cookies
Millennials particularly interested in healthy cookies
Figure 38: Health attributes of importance when purchasing, by generation, June 2015
Figure 39: Demands for cookies, by generation, June 2015
Interest in organic cookies
Organic claims resonate with Millennials
Figure 40: Opinions of cookies, any agree, by demographics, June 2015
Household income and consumption
Premium brands resonate more with higher-income households
Figure 41: Cookie consumption – More than twice a week, by type, by household income, June 2015
Figure 42: Cookie packages eaten, winter 2015
Hispanic Millennials likely to choose packaged cookies
Healthy, premium cookies resonate with Hispanic Millennials
Figure 43: Cookie consumption, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
Figure 44: Demands for cookies, by Hispanics, by generation (Millennials and non-Millennials), June 2015
Consumer segmentation
Figure 45: Cookie clusters, June 2015
Group one: Healthy cookie consumers
Figure 46: Health attributes, by target group, June 2015
Group two: Cookie indulgers
Figure 47: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
Group three: Brand buyers
Figure 48: Opinions, any agree, by target group, June 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of healthful cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 58: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 59: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 60: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 61: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 62: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Key players
Figure 63: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 64: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015 (continued)
Figure 65: MULO sales of healthy cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Consumer
Figure 66: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
Figure 67: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
Figure 68: Cookie brands consumed, by demographics, July 2014-March 2015
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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