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Urban Populations: Exploring the challenges and opportunities of aging, declining, and rapidly-growing populations

Urban Populations: Exploring the challenges and opportunities of aging, declining, and rapidly-growing populations

Summary

World’s aging society is an unavoidable occurrence that governments and businesses need to address. Healthcare and technology will prove to be the most important sectors for supporting the aging population. People within this age cohort will generally have high disposable incomes and are likely to be willing to spend a large proportion of their income on maintaining their autonomy. For this reason, healthcare and technological innovations which maintain health and mobility are likely to be in high demand and represent a valuable growth opportunity.

By 2025, there will be 41 megacities globally; 34 of these cities are not currently considered to be in the developed world. These megacities will prove to be vast and diverse markets and therefore each city should be treated as its own discrete opportunity. Understanding these markets will prove hugely beneficial as the developing world continues to experience fast growth and rising incomes.

Many countries have realized that the aging population is a challenge which needs to be tackled. China’s recent Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) highlighted the issue and stated the country is lacking a comprehensive and continuous service system to meet the elderly’s health needs. In Shanghai, the over 65 population will exceed 2.7 Million by 2025; urban areas where a large share of the population are elderly will demand such services to care for this age cohort.0
A combination of factors have caused the world’s population to age; advancements in medical care have increased life expectancy, while fertility rates have generally lowered due to economic and social influences. An increasingly aging population creates a large economic burden for cities around the world due to a rising dependency ratio, greater reliance on health care services and lower overall expenditure.

At the same time, some cities are experiencing declining populations for reasons such as persistently low fertility rates and migration outflows due to an economic downturn. Declining urban populations pose a significant challenge, as the workforce shrinks economic growth may decline and fewer well-educated workers within the city reduces the quantity of high quality human capital required to increase productivity.

The report Urban Populations: Exploring the challenges and opportunities of aging, declining, and rapidly-growing populations, is analytical report discusses the current trends related to urban populations, including the changing dynamics of said populations as well as the challenges and opportunities which have arisen as a result.

Companies mentioned in this report: Fitbit, International WELL Building Institute, Transport for London (TfL), Tibco.

Scope

  • Technological integration into everyday life could prove hugely beneficial for aging demographics and society as a whole. Advancements which improve the health and mobility of an aging society will decrease dependence on public health services. Meanwhile, incentivizing companies to hire older workers can also keep this age cohort more active and maintain consumption expenditure levels within the local economy.
  • A declining workforce implies an economic contraction as output falls. However, innovations mean that such cities could experience a fast recovery: in one particular city, low property rents and labor costs have created a thriving technology-focused start-up scene.
  • ‘Big data’ and the smart city movement will prove crucial if the world’s metropolises are to achieve maximum efficiency and sustainability. Demand for ‘green’ buildings that promote sustainability and well-being is set to rise significantly as the awareness of pollution levels grows.
Reasons to buy
  • Cities are large and varied markets with a plethora of opportunities for businesses. However, a number of trends are changing the face of the urban demographic; a prime example is the world’s aging society, an issue which needs to be addressed by governments and businesses around the world.
  • Through the use of data and analytics 'Urban Populations' provides insight into the current trends effecting cities and their citizens. By analyzing the changes in the urban landscape and clearly indicating the challenges and opportunities that have arisen as a result, this report provides a high level of clarity in order to aid business decisions.


Executive summary
Section 1: Aging populations
Section 1, Public finances and the economy
Section 1, Age friendly communities
Section 1, Case study: Tokyo, Japan
Section 2: Declining populations
Section 2, Economic and social factors
Section 2, Declining populations opportunities
Section 2, Case study: Athens, Greece
Section 3: Overpopulation
Section 3, Megacities
Section 3, Urbanization and population growth
Section 3, Sustainability of cities
Section 3, Case study: London, United Kingdom
Section 4: Key findings and recommendations
Section 4, Decode the future
Appendix
Reference list
Acronyms and definitions
About the author
Contact information
List of Tabless
Exhibit 1: Fukuyama: Household expenditure (% of GDP) and percentage of population over the age of 65
Exhibit 2: Osaka: Age demographic as a percentage of total population
Exhibit 3: Japan: Population (million)
Exhibit 4: Lisbon and Athens: Population growth
Exhibit 5: Average price of a square meter of property 2016 (£)
Exhibit 6: Athens: 65 and over as a percentage of total population and unemployment rate
Exhibit 7: Annual mean, PM10 μg/m3
Exhibit 8: Gross square meters (million) of LEED certified space as of December 2016
List of Figures
Exhibit 1: Fukuyama: Household expenditure (% of GDP) and percentage of population over the age of 65 7
Exhibit 2: Osaka: Age demographic as a percentage of total population 8
Exhibit 3: Japan: Population (million) 9
Exhibit 4: Lisbon and Athens: Population growth 11
Exhibit 5: Average price of a square meter of property 2016 (£) 12
Exhibit 6: Athens: 65 and over as a percentage of total population and unemployment rate 13
Exhibit 7: Annual mean, PM10 μg/m3 16
Exhibit 8: Gross square meters (million) of LEED certified space as of December 2016 18

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