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Vegetables - US - June 2015

Vegetables - US - June 2015

The roughly $50 billion vegetable market has grown 2-5% annually since 2010. The market has been bolstered by fresh segments (fresh-cut salad and fresh vegetables), and hampered by the smaller frozen and shelf-stable vegetables segments. Mintel expects much of the same through 2020 as consumers further latch on to the fresh food trend while dismissing all things processed. The organic food movement is also significantly benefitting this market, and innovation in this area, especially when coupled with convenient and portable prepared salads and cut vegetables, will move the market forward.

This report looks at the following issues:

Frozen and canned “non-fresh” segments are losing relevance
Stigmas with vegetable types aren’t being addressed by companies
Marketing and product positioning isn’t addressing health needs/interests


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of vegetables, by segment, 2010-15
Figure 2: Select negative characteristics by vegetable type, March 2015
Figure 3: Attitudes toward vegetables (safety and nutrition), March 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Select favorable characteristics by vegetable type, March 2015
Figure 5: Purchase and consumption behavior, March 2015
Figure 6: Vegetable purchases, Boomers versus total, March 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Recent years moving vegetables market forward
Fresh segments nab nearly all sales while driving growth
Organics fuel natural channel sales
Market size and forecast
Vegetables surpasses the $50 billion mark
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of vegetables, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of vegetables, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Fresh segments approaching 90% of market while driving growth
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of vegetables, by segment, 2015
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of vegetables, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Market perspective
Natural markets seeing surge in vegetable sales
Figure 11: Natural supermarket sales of packaged vegetables, by segment, rolling 52 weeks March 2013-March 2015
Market factors
Aging US population benefitting the vegetables market
Figure 12: Population share percentage, by generation, 2010, 2015, and 2020
Fresh vegetable prices swing wildly since 2011
Figure 13: Changes in food price indexes, fruits and vegetables, 2011-15*
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Packaged salad brands dominate in MULO
Beans getting quite a bit of attention
Carrot producers feeling squeezed
Frozen brands may be missing mark on innovation front
Manufacturer sales of vegetables
Fresh-cut salad brands lead the pack
Figure 14: MULO Sales of vegetables, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Salad “meals” bolstering market
Bolthouse maximizing sales with complementary offerings
Store brands maintain significant presence
Figure 15: Private label versus name brand launches, vegetables, 2013-15*
Canned beans’ diverse use brings a bright spot to the shelf-stable sector
What’s struggling?
Fresh leaders feeling competitive strain
Figure 16: “A True Organic story,” 2015
Major frozen vegetable brands missing mark with consumers
What’s next?
Organics to niche further
Convenience at the heart of growth opportunity
Kid-friendly innovation expanding in and out of this market
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Age and income impact vegetable purchases
Buyers seek out variety with retailers and vegetable products
Convenience trend is central to capitalize on for market growth
Vegetable purchases by type
Affluence and maturity drive fresh vegetable purchases
Figure 17: Vegetable purchases, March 2015
Frozen and canned usage
Convenient options in opposing usage trajectory
Figure 18: Household purchases – Frozen and canned/jarred vegetables, October 2010-December 2014
Purchase and consumption behavior
Variety is the name of the game
Figure 19: Purchase and consumption behavior, March 2015
Favorable characteristics
Convenience matters
Figure 20: Correspondence analysis – favorable characteristics by vegetable type, March 2015
Negative characteristics
Spoiling and processing damaging vegetables’ image most
Figure 21: Correspondence analysis – Negative characteristics by vegetable type, March 2015
Nutritional info gathering
Label is key but Millennials seek out other sources
Figure 22: Nutritional info gathering, March 2015
Attitudes toward vegetables
Food safety and nutritional/health info are top of mind
Figure 23: Attitudes toward vegetables (safety and nutrition), March 2015
What matters to millennials
Convenience, information, and health are key drivers
Figure 24: Attitudes toward vegetables (safety and nutrition), by generation, March 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Fan chart forecast methodology
Consumer survey data
Correspondence map methodology
Abbreviations and terms
Appendix – Market
Market sales and forecast
Figure 25: Total US sales and forecast of vegetables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Retail channel sales of packaged vegetables
Figure 26: Total US retail sales of packaged vegetables, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 27: Total US retail sales of packaged vegetables, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Macroeconomic factors
Figure 28: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2011-March 2015*
Figure 29: Disposable personal income, January 2011-February 2015*
Figure 30: Consumer confidence, January 2011-March 2015*
Appendix – Key players
Figure 31: MULO sales of fresh vegetables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 32: MULO sales of shelf-stable vegetables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 33: MULO sales of frozen vegetables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 34: MULO sales of fresh-cut salad, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Appendix – Consumer
Figure 35: Household purchases – canned/jarred vegetables (excl. tomatoes), October 2010-December 2014
Figure 36: Household purchases – frozen vegetables (excl. potatoes), October 2010-December 2014
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

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