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Fish and Shellfish - US - July 2015

Fish and Shellfish - US - July 2015

“Although fish and shellfish consumption per capita lags far behind meat and poultry (see Market Drivers), brands may be able to leverage consumers’ expanding palates by targeting fish eaters with campaigns that encourage them to try different species that offer unique or exotic flavors, as nearly six in 10 buyers say they eat fish for the taste. These types of buyers may be interested in unique or exotic species that provide a new twist on fish/shellfish flavor. If they opt for one of these species rather than selecting a meat or poultry item, their fish/shellfish purchase frequency may increase.”

– Amy Kraushaar, US Category Manager, Food and Drink and Foodservice

This report answers the following questions:

How can fish/shellfish brands compete with meat/poultry brands?
Can farm-raised fish increase their appeal?
What do Millennials want from fish and shellfish brands?


SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
Slow growth forecast
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2010-20
Key players
Figure 2: MULO sales of fish and shellfish, by rolling 52 weeks 2015
The consumer
High overall penetration but relatively low purchase frequency
Figure 3: Fish and shellfish purchases (any purchase), April 2015
Buyers select wild-caught, premium quality most
Figure 4: Types of fish and shellfish purchased, April 2015
Taste, health drive consumption
Figure 5: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, April 2015
A third of buyers want to see more wild-caught
Figure 6: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can fish/shellfish brands compete with meat/poultry brands?
Insight: Expanding palates and purchase frequency of fish eaters
Can farm-raised fish increase their appeal?
Insight: Sustainability, affordability, lack of toxins are positives for farm fish
What do Millennials want from fish and shellfish brands?
Insight: Flavor, premium quality, sustainability, fresh appeal to Millennials
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of fish and shellfish
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Fan chart forecast
Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2010-20
Fan chart methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Meat consumption rates do not favor fish/shellfish
Figure 10: Per capita and projected per capita consumption of poultry and livestock, 2006-24
Millennials most apt to purchase fish/shellfish
Millennials represent most populous generation, grow 2.6% in 2015-20
Figure 11: Population by generation, 2010-20
Hispanics, Asians most likely to buy
Hispanic and Asian populations grow fastest in 2010-20
Figure 12: Share of total US population by race/Hispanic origin, 2010-20
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Fresh fish dominates among segments
Sales of fish and shellfish, by segment
Figure 13: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2010-20
Sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2010-20
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, at current prices, 2009-19
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets make up 26.5%, but other channels grow sales more
Sales of fish and shellfish, by channel
Figure 17: Total US retail sales of fish and shellfish, by channel, 2013 and 2015
Supermarket sales small but steady
Mass merchandisers offer value, commit to sustainability
Figure 18: Retail channel sales of fish and shellfish, 2010-15
Natural channel sales of fish and shellfish
Figure 19: Natural channel sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending April 21, 2013 and April 19, 2015
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated fish and shellfish, by share of sales, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Apr 21, 2013 and Apr 19, 2015
Figure 21: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated fish and shellfish, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 4/21/13 and 4/19/15
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
MULO sales dominated by shelf-stable manufacturers
MULO sales of fish and shellfish
Figure 22: MULO sales of fish and shellfish, by rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
MULO sales of frozen fish and shellfish
Figure 23: Gorton’s Smart and Crunchy television ad, 2015
Figure 24: MULO sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2014 and 2015
MULO sales of shelf-stable fish and shellfish
Figure 25: StarKist Tuna Creations television ad, 2015
Figure 26: MULO sales of shelf-stable fish and shellfish, 2014 and 2015
MULO sales of fresh fish and shellfish
Figure 27: MULO sales of fresh fish and shellfish, 2014 and 2015
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Environmentally friendly claims increase, reflecting demand
Figure 28: Top 10 fish and shellfish product claims, by percentage of total claims, 2010-14
Sustainable brands likely to attract a growing number of buyers
All-natural, preservative-free gains popularity
Premium products appeal to consumer taste for quality
FISH AND SHELLFISH PURCHASES
Key points
High penetration, but half or less buy once a month or more
Figure 29: Fish and shellfish purchases, April 2015
Men more likely than women to buy
Figure 30: Fish and shellfish purchases, by gender, April 2015
Health reasons very likely to motivate purchases of all fish/shellfish types
Figure 31: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by reasons for eating fish and shellfish, April 2015
Figure 32: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by reasons for eating fish and shellfish, April 2015
Figure 33: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by reasons for eating fish and shellfish, April 2015
Packaging, flavor, catch method are important
Figure 34: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
Figure 35: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
Figure 36: Fish and shellfish purchases (once a month or more), by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
FISH AND SHELLFISH HOME CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
Key points
Most eat fresh, frozen, shelf-stable fish 2-3 times per month
Figure 37: Fish and shellfish home consumption frequency, April 2015
TYPES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH PURCHASED
Key points
Wild-caught, premium quality purchased most
Figure 38: Types of fish and shellfish purchased, April 2015
Figure 39: Types of fish purchased, by Millennials versus Non-Millennials, April 2015
FISH AND SHELLFISH PURCHASE LOCATIONS
Key points
Majority buy at supermarkets
Figure 40: Where fish and shellfish is purchased, April 2015
Millennials most likely to use stores other than supermarkets
Figure 41: Where fish and shellfish is purchased, by Millennials versus Non-Millennials, April 2015
Traditional channels may need to better promote wild-caught, premium
Figure 42: Types of fish and shellfish purchased, by where fish and shellfish is purchased, April 2015
Figure 43: Types of fish and shellfish purchased, by where fish and shellfish is purchased, April 2015
REASONS FOR EATING FISH AND SHELLFISH
Key points
Flavor, health drive sales
Figure 44: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, April 2015
Millennials, family households cite freshness, premium quality as reasons to buy
Figure 45: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, April 2015
Figure 46: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, by presence of children, April 2015
Buyers equate wild-caught, sustainable products with flavor
Figure 47: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
Figure 48: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
Figure 49: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish, by product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
REASONS FOR NOT EATING CERTAIN TYPES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH
Key points
More than three in 10 do not eat because they don’t like the taste
Figure 50: Reasons for not eating certain types of fish and shellfish, April 2015
ATTRIBUTES BUYERS WOULD LIKE MORE OF
Key points
Wild-caught tops list of attributes buyers would like to see
Figure 51: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, April 2015
Millennials more interested in American farmed and sustainable products
Figure 52: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, by generations, April 2015
Figure 53: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, by generations, April 2015
Figure 54: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, by generations, April 2015
Households with kids want more family-size, convenience, flavor variety
Figure 55: Product attributes buyers would like to see more of, by presence of children, April 2015
CHAID ANALYSIS
Methodology
Affluent, urban men with kids are ideal target for fresh fish
Figure 56: Frequent (twice or more a month) home consumption – CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
55+ buyers who eat fish/shellfish at least twice a month choosing it over poultry, beef
Figure 57: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish– CHAID – Tree output, April 2015
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
CHAID Data
Figure 58: Frequent (twice or more a month) home consumption – CHAID – Table output, April 2015
Figure 59: Reasons for eating fish and shellfish – CHAID – Table output, April 2015
Experian Simmons
Figure 60: Household usage of meat, fish, and poultry, last six months, February 2009/March 2010-January 2013/March 2014
Figure 61: Household consumption of frozen prepared seafood and fish, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 62: Kinds of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 63: Brands of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 64: Brands of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 65: Household consumption of canned or pouched tuna, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 66: Kinds of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 67: Styles of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 68: Styles of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 69: Forms of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 70: Brands of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 71: Brands of frozen prepared seafood and fish consumed in household, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 72: Teen consumption of canned tuna, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 73: Number of times teens eat canned tuna in last 30 days, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 74: Kids consumption of canned tuna, November 2-13-December 2-14
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
US METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER RESEARCH
Primary Data Analysis
Secondary Data Analysis
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Social Media Research
TRADE RESEARCH
STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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