Turkey Baby Food

Turkey Baby Food

Summary

“Turkey Baby Food” is an analytical report by GlobalData which provides extensive and highly detailed current and future market trends in the Turkish market.

The Turkish baby food market performed strongly up to 2015/16, stimulated by a buoyant economy and strong marketing activity. Volume has dropped in the last two or three years as a result of a less positive economy, but price rises, particularly in baby milks, have been high, due to high inflation coupled with currency depreciation. The sector has become more polarised, with the main manufacturers now offering a low-priced range, alongside their main premium ranges.

Baby milks continue to account for the vast bulk of sales. Wet meals have been the most dynamic of category, albeit from an extremely small base. Hero, as well as a number of Turkish manufacturers involved in liquid milks, baby cereals, and finger foods, produce baby food locally. Imports of milks and cereals rose up to 2017, but imports of milks appear to be down heavily in 2018. Imports of meals are low and mainly sourced from eastern European countries. Danone — via its Aptamil, Milupa, and Bebelac brands —dominates the sector, claiming two-thirds of value. Its nearest rivals are Hipp and Hero. A fairly large number of manufacturers are present in milks, but competition in other categories is limited. The number of babies is forecast to fall, acting as a brake on higher growth, although the economy is expected to gradually improve on its performance in the recent past, which should encourage sales.

What else does this report offer?

  • Consumption data based upon a unique combination of industry research, fieldwork, market sizing work and our in-house expertise to offer extensive data about the trends and dynamics affecting the industry.
  • Detailed profile of the companies operating and new companies considering entry in the industry along with their key focus product sectors.
  • Market profile of the various product sectors with the key features & developments, segmentation, per capita trends and the various manufacturers & brands.
  • Overview of baby food retailing with a mention of the major retailers in the country along with the distribution channel.
  • Future projections considering various trends which are likely to affect the industry.
Scope
  • Sales have shown strong growth, rising by XX% in value from 2012 to 2018, but consumption has fallen back since 2016.
  • First stage milks continue to constitute the largest segment, accounting for XX% of volume in 2018. Although they look set to lose this position to growing-up milks in the near future.
  • Baby cereals are considerably more expensive than standard cereals, which has limited the category's growth potential, as many consumers continue to feed their babies standard cereals, rather than opting for baby-specific ones.
  • The Meals category Growth has been more rapid than for cereals; value sales are up by XX% since 2012, and in 2014 sales in volume overtook sales of baby cereals.
  • The Baby Drinks category is the smallest in the baby food sector, accounting for only around XX% of value sales.
  • Supermarkets and other food outlets are now estimated to hold around XX% of all baby food sales, with pharmacies accounting for approximately XX% of value sales
  • Potential sales will be affected by the gradual decline in the number of babies aged 0-3, which will drop from XX million in 2018 to XX million in 2024, but a more influential factor will be the performance of the economy. Virtually no GDP growth in 2019 will lead to a decline in volume sales, and although higher rates are expected from 2020 onwards, the high growth rates of the 2010-2015 period are unlikely to recur
Reasons to buy
  • Evaluate important changes in consumer behavior and identify profitable markets and areas for product innovation.
  • Analyse current and forecast behavior trends in each category to identify the best opportunities to exploit.
  • Detailed understanding of consumption by individual product categories in order to align your sales and marketing efforts with the latest trends in the market.
  • Investigates which categories are performing the best and how this is changing market dynamics.


  • Introduction
    • Executive Summary
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Definitions: Terminology
  • Background
    • Births - Live Birth Rates: Over the past decade the annual number of births has remained fairly stable, fluctuating between 1.2 and 1.3 million
      • Table Birth & Population Trends, 2008-2018
    • Births - Birth Rates by Region: In 2018, nearly 18% of total births occurred in Istanbul
      • Table Births by Region, 2016 & 2018
    • The Consumer: Western lifestyles are having a greater influence on consumers' spending habits as Turkey becomes wealthier
      • Table Poverty Levels, 2002-2015
    • The Consumer: Average household income rose by 48% between 2014 and 2017, to TL21,577 (US$5,832)
      • Table Household Income Distribution, 2014-2017
    • The Consumer: In the cities, a rapidly growing middle class is emerging, and baby foods are targeted mainly at urban consumers
    • Socio-demographic Trends - Births by Age of Mother: The majority of births (54.1% in 2018) occur to mothers in their 20s
      • Table Births by Age of Mother, 2012-2018
    • Socio-demographic Trends - Number of Women of Child Bearing Age: The number of women of childbearing age rose to 21.3 million in 2018
      • Table Number of Women of Childbearing Age by Age Group, 2011 & 2018
    • Working Women - Female Employment: Around a third of all women are in employment, but approaching 50% of women aged 20 to 49 are in work
      • Table Number of Working Women in Turkey, 2012-2018
      • Table Working Women in Turkey, by Age Group, 2016-2018
    • Working Women - Female Employment: In 2017, 28% of women in "employment" were unpaid family workers
      • Table Female Labour Force Participation by Employment Status, 2012-2017
    • Breastfeeding Trends: Working women in Turkey are entitled to 16 weeks' paid maternity leave
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: Almost all babies in Turkey have been breastfed at some stage, but rates fall off sharply
      • Table Exclusive Breastfeeding Rates by Age Group, 1998-2013
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: The practice of supplementing breast milk early on in a baby's life is widespread
      • Table Breastfeeding Habits by Age of Baby, 2013
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: Use of infant formula during the first two years of a baby's life has increased between 2003 and 2013
      • Table Babies Receiving Infant Formula, by Age of Baby, 2003, 2008, &2013
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: Food made from grains, including cereals, tends to be introduced from the age of six or seven months
      • Table Food Consumed by Breastfed Babies, by Age of Baby & Type of Food, 2013
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Attitudes: Around 70% of women strongly agree that breast milk is ideal for babies
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Duration: Although not exclusively breastfed for long, most babies receive some breast milk for well over a year
      • Table Median Breastfeeding Duration, 2013
  • Overview
    • Sector Overview: Sales have shown strong growth, rising by 176% in value from 2012 to 2018, but consumption has fallen back since 2016
    • Sector Overview: The milks and wet meals categories have been the most dynamic, but sales are up in all categories
      • Table Sector Size, 2018, &Growth Rates, 2012-2018
    • Manufacturer Shares: The market remains firmly in the grip of Danone, which accounts for two-thirds of retail sales
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume %, 2013-2018
    • Manufacturer Shares: Danone leads in all categories except drinks/finger food, where local companies have so far maintained a strong presence
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares by Sector, %, 2018
  • Category Analysis
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Baby Milks Category Trends: Retail sales rose by over 50% in 2018, due to price rises, while volume sales declined
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Growth, % 2012-2018
    • Baby Milks Category Trends: Despite lower volume growth in 2018, the value of retail sales has continued to grow strongly due to very high average price rises
    • Baby Milks Per Capita Trends: In 2018, per capita consumption of baby milks by babies aged 0-3 stood at 2.7kg, a much lower level than in Western Europe
    • Baby Milks : The proportion of mothers with babies aged up to three months old who use infant formula has increased
      • Table Penetration of Infant Formula by Age of Baby, 2008 & 2013
    • Baby Milks : Consumption of growing-up milks was 26% higher in 2018 than in 2012, compared with a level of around 18% for milks for younger babies
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Growing-up milks have gradually accounted for a larger proportion of consumption and now claim 28.4% of volume sales
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Although powdered formula dominates, there is a significant market for liquid formulae
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: There has been a clear swing towards smaller pack sizes over the past two years, as consumers have struggled with higher milk prices
      • Table Baby Milks: Facings by Pack Type, 2019
      • Table Baby Milks: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: The per kg price of most milks has risen by at least 50% since the end of 2017, with several brands more than doubling in price
      • Table Baby Milks: Price Increases, 2017-2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Special dietary and organic milks usually retail at over US$36 per kg, and other milks from US$19 upwards
      • Table Baby Milks Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Milks Manufacturers : Danone is the clear market leader with two-thirds of category sales
      • Table Baby Milks: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume, %, 2013-2018
    • Baby Milks Manufacturer Shares & Brands: The remainder of the market is quite fragmented
    • Baby Milks Manufacturer Shares & Brands: Other players include a number of local manufacturers
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Category Trends: In value terms, sales have risen slightly less strongly than other categories, but they have still almost doubled since 2012
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Category Growth, % 2012-2018
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Per Capita Trends: In 2018, per capita consumption by babies aged 0-3 amounted to only 150g
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Segmentation: 250g packs account for two-thirds of facings
      • Table Baby Cereals: Facings by Pack Type, 2019
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Segmentation: Prices range from US$5.16 per kg for the domestic Ari brand to US$18.97 per kg for Hipp's organic cereals
      • Table Baby Cereals: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Manufacturer Shares: Danone, Hero, and Hipp together hold over 90% of retail sales, making penetration by other companies difficult
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume, %, 2013-2018
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Brands: Danone leads with over 60% of value sales, while Hero and Hipp struggle to gain ground
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Baby Meals Category Trends: Sales remain very low, and the category seems resistant to innovation
      • Table Baby Meals: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Meals: Category Growth, % 2012-2018
    • Baby Meals Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption levels are extremely low by international standards, despite increasing by 40% since 2012
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: Pouches have so far failed to make an impact
      • Table Baby Meals: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: Prices range from US$3.38 per kg to over US$9 per kg
      • Table Baby Meals: Price Positioning, 2019
    • Baby Meals Manufacturers Shares: This category is dominated by Danone, with Hero and Hipp its only serious rivals
      • Table Baby Meals: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume, %, 2013-2018
    • Baby Meals Manufacturers & Brands: Hero and Hipp have been unable to dislodge Danone, despite innovations such as pouches
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Category Trends: Consumption has fallen by 7% since 2016 as the economy has weakened
      • Table Baby Drinks & Finger Foods: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Drinks & Finger Foods: Category Growth, % 2012-2018
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Category Trends: Demand for all products in this sector remains low as they can be easily substituted
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Per Capita Trends: Intake levels rose slowly up to 2016 but have subsequently declined
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Segmentation: Most marketing activity in this category has been focused on finger foods
      • Table Finger Foods: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Segmentation: Prices for drinks vary substantially as a result of the varied offering
      • Table Baby Drinks: Price Positioning, 2019
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Segmentation: Most finger foods consist of biscuits which retail at very low prices
      • Table Baby Finger Foods: Price Positioning, 2019
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Manufacturers Shares: The market is split between multinational and local players
      • Table Baby Drinks & Finger Foods: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume, %, 2013-2018
    • Baby Drinks & Finger Foods Manufacturers & Brands: Eti and Ülker control the majority of finger foods sales while Danone dominates the drinks segment
      • Table Finger Foods: Facings by Manufacturer, 2017 & 2019
      • Table Baby Drinks: Facings by Manufacturer, 2017 & 2019
  • Production & Trade
    • Production: Hero produces baby food for the domestic market as well as for export
    • Imports: Imports of milks & cereals appear to have fallen sharply in 2018
    • Exports: Exports of milks and cereals are relatively low, but exports of other types of baby food, particularly sweet meals, were increasing until recently
  • Company Profiles
    • Company Profiles: Numil Gida (Danone)
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Hero Gida Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Hipp Dýº Ticaret Ltd
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Nestlé
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Abbott Laboratories AS
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Other Manufacturers
  • Distribution
    • Baby Food Retailing: Supermarkets, hypermarkets, and other food outlets are now estimated to hold over 60% of all baby food sales
      • Table Baby Food: Sales by Outlet Type and Food Type, Value, 2018
    • Baby Food Retailing: Pharmacies/drugstores have lost ground, but retain a share of over 35%
      • Table Baby Food: Sales by Outlet Type, Value, 2011-2018
  • Economic Background
    • Economic Background: In 2018, the Turkish Lira lost more than a third of its value against the US dollar, contributing to high levels of inflation
      • Table Key Macro-Economic Indicators, 2012-2019
    • Key Macroeconomic Forecasts: Real GDP growth is expected to remain be between 2.2% and 2.8% per annum each year from 2020 to 2024
      • Table Key Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2018-2024
  • Prospects & Forecasts
    • Birth and Population Projections: The number of births is expected to fall, albeit only gently, over the next decade
      • Table Birth & Population Projections, 2012-2024
    • Forecast Overview: Growth of 188% in value and 16% in volume is forecast for the total baby food sector between 2018 and 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Category Growth, 2018-2024
    • Future Trends: Retail sales are expected to almost triple by 2024 to TL3.8 billion, equivalent to a 25% increase at constant 2018 prices
  • Appendix
    • Appendix - The Baby Population: The baby population is predicted to decline from 3.9 million in 2018 to 3.6 million by 2024
      • Table Baby Population, Number of Babies '000, 2008-2024
    • Appendix - Birth and Population Projections: There is expected to be an increase of 2% in the number of women of childbearing age from 2018 to 2023
      • Table Number of Women of Childbearing Age by Age Group, 2011, 2018 & 2023
    • Appendix - Sector Value: At current prices, the overall baby food market rose by 176% to reach TL1,325 million in 2018
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Current Prices, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Sector Value: Growth in constant price terms amounted to 57% between 2012 and 2018
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Constant Prices, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Sector Value: In 2018, the market stood at US$276.1 million, just above the 2012 level
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, US$ '000, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Sector Volume: Market volumes have risen by 18% since 2012 to 12,257 tons in 2018
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume, Tons, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: In per capita terms, growth has been dynamic since 2012, rising by 172%
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: In constant price terms, per capita expenditure rose 55% from 2012 to 2018, with all categories experiencing growth
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: In 2018, per capita expenditure stood at US$71.6, of which US$68.5 went on baby milks
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US Dollars, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Per Capita Consumption: Between 2012 and 2018, intake levels saw a rise of 17%
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Milks: Consumption of milks has seen good rates of growth, but fell back in 2017 and 2018
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Trends, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Milks: The first-stage segment has been affected to some extent by increasing rates of breastfeeding
      • Table Baby Milks: Segmentation by Type, % of Value, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Milks: Danone has a range of products across the full price spectrum, while Abbott and Hero have a low price positioning
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix - Milks: Danone has a range of different liquid formulae, with its growing-up milks priced at almost half that of starter formula
      • Table Baby Milks - Liquid: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix - Cereals & Dry Meals: Despite a drop in 2017-2018, consumption remains 4.5% up over the 2012-2018 period, with prices also rising in real terms
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Category Trends, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Wet meals: The underdeveloped wet meals category has shown the strongest growth, with consumption up by 42% despite recent falls
      • Table Baby Wet Meals: Category Trends, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Drinks & Finger Foods: This category has shown the lowest level of growth and remains a peripheral part of the baby food sector overall
      • Table Baby Drinks & Finger Foods: Category Trends, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Imports: Imports of milks & cereals appear to have fallen sharply in 2018
      • Table Imports of Baby Food by Category, Tons, 2012-2018
      • Table Imports of Baby Food by Category, US$ `000, 2012-2018
    • Appendix - Imports: The majority of milks & cereals are supplied from Poland, Ireland and Germany
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Imports by Country of Origin, 2015-2017
    • Appendix - Imports: Other baby food is mostly sourced from European countries including Hungary and Germany
      • Table Imports of Other Baby Food by Country of Origin, 2014-2017
    • Appendix - Exports: Exports are low overall, but sweet meals are relatively significant
      • Table Exports of Baby Food by Sector, Tons, 2011-2017
      • Table Exports of Baby Food by Sector, US$ `000, 2011-2017
    • Appendix - Exports: Turkey exports milks & cereals to countries in the Middle East region
      • Table Exports of Milks & Cereals by Country of Destination, 2014-2017
    • Appendix - Exports: Other baby food exports are also mostly destined for countries in the Middle East, but Germany is the main recipient of vegetable meals
      • Table Exports of Other Baby Food by Country of Origin, 2014-2017
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: At current prices, the baby food market is forecast to rise to TL3.8 billion by 2024, fueled by volume growth and high levels of inflation
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Current Prices, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: In constant price terms, discounting the effects of inflation, growth will amount to just 25%
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Constant Prices, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: Overall retail sales value will increase by nearly 190% by 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, US$ '000, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Volume Forecasts: From 2018 to 2024, consumption is forecast to rise by 16% thanks to an increase in the number of births and growing affluence
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume Forecasts, Tons, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: By 2024, per capita expenditure is forecast to reach TL1,051, with expenditure on milks alone standing at TL1,006
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: In constant price terms, per capita expenditure will rise by 32% by 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: By 2024, per capita expenditure will more than treble from the 2018 level
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US$, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: Average intake levels are forecast to rise by 23% to 3.9kg by 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2018-2024
    • Appendix - Storechecks: In storechecks carried out in early 2019, 44% of facings consisted of wet meals and 30% of milks
      • Table Facings Allocation by Product Type
    • Summary Methodology

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