The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Kenya to 2021

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market Size and Growth

General Market Dynamics

Chapter 1: COUNTRY PROFILE

Country Profile

Map and Major Cities

Population

Gross Domestic Product

Living Standards

Chapter 2: RISK AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Risk

How Easy is it to do Business?

Chapter 3: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET SIZE

Introduction

Grocery Market Size

Grocery Retail Spend Per Capita

Chapter 4: GROCERY RETAIL CHANNELS AND DISTRIBUTION

Channel Definitions

Traditional Channel Definitions

Modern Channel Definitions

Size of the Outlet Universe

Grocery Retail Sales by Channel

Modern vs. Traditional Trade

Chapter 5: LEADING GROCERY RETAILERS

Grocery Retail Competitive Landscape

Domestic Grocery Retailers

International Grocery Retailers

Chapter 6: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS

Grocery Market Attractiveness

Chapter 7: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET FORECASTS

Grocery Sales Forecast

Grocery Retail Sales Per Capita Forecast

HOW TO CONTACT US

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Country Profile - Kenya, 2017

Figure 2: Map and Major Cities - Kenya

Figure 3: Population - Kenya (thousands of inhabitants), 2016-2021f

Figure 4: GDP - Kenya (current, $M), 2016-2021f)

Figure 5: Trendtype Living Standards Score - Kenya, 2015-2016

Figure 6: Trendtype Living Standards Score Heat Map - East Africa, 2015-2016

Figure 7: Country Risk Index - Kenya, Q2 2017

Figure 8: Country Risk Heat Map - East Africa, Q2 2017

Figure 9: Business Environment Index - Kenya, 2017

Figure 10: Ease of Doing Business - Africa, 2017

Figure 11: Logistics Performance Index - Africa, 2017

Figure 12: Competitiveness Index- Africa, 2017

Figure 13: Grocery Retail Market Development Model

Figure 14: Grocery Retail Sales - Kenya (current, $M), 2012-2016

Figure 15: Grocery Retail Sales - Kenya (current, ‎KSh) 2012-2016

Figure 16: Grocery Retail Sales per capita - Kenya (current, $M), 2012-2016

Figure 17: Grocery Retail Sales per capita Heat Map - East Africa, 2016

Figure 18: Traditional Channels Definitions

Figure 19: Modern Channels Definitions

Figure 20: Grocery Outlet Universe by Channel - Kenya (no. of outlets), 2017f

Figure 21: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Kenya (% sales by value), 2017f

Figure 22: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Kenya (current, $m), 2017f

Figure 23: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Kenya and East Africa (% sales by value), 2017f

Figure 24: Modern vs. Traditional Trade - Kenya and East Africa (% sales by value), 2017f

Figure 25: Assessment of Retailer Network Strength and Format Diversification in Kenya

Figure 26: Grocery Retail Investment Outlook for Kenya

Figure 27: Market Opportunity vs. Market Maturity - East Africa, 2017f

Figure 28: Market Opportunity vs. Market Stability - East Africa, 2017f

Figure 29: Market Opportunity vs. Competitive Landscape - East Africa, 2017f

Figure 30: Grocery Retail Sales Forecast - Kenya (current, $m), 2017-2021f

Figure 31: Grocery Retail Sales per capita Forecast - Kenya (current, $m), 2017-2021f

Table of Tables

Table 1: Major Cities and Populations - Kenya

Table 2: Grocery Retail Sales per capita - Kenya (current, ‎KSh) 2012-2016

Table 3: Domestic grocery retailers in Kenya

Table 4: International grocery retailers in Kenya

The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Kenya to 2021

This report provides in depth data on the grocery retail market in Kenya. It features historic data and five year forecasts for market value and per capita spend in the grocery market. Our data also includes the number of outlets in the store universe by channel and channel values for open market vendors, small stores and kiosks, medium stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets and forecourt retailers.

It also analyses the competitive landscape in Kenya with data on the leading domestic and international store networks. Trendtype's proprietary data supports a detailed analysis of the risks and market opportunity in Kenya and assesses its market attractiveness for retailers.

- Assess the key drivers of grocery retail market growth in Kenya
- Quantify the size of the grocery retail market with forecasts through to 2021
- Understand the size and structure of the store universe in Kenya
- Quantify sales by channel and the size of the modern and traditional channels
- Identify the leading domestic and international supermarket chains and the competitive landscape
- Analyse the market opportunity, attractiveness, risk factors and future outlook for Kenya

- What are the key drivers of the grocery retail market in Kenya?
- What is the market size and value of the grocery retail market?
- What is size and structure of the store universe?
- What is the value of each grocery retail channel?
- Who are the leading domestic and international supermarket chains?
- What are the winning strategies for success in Kenya?
- How attractive is Kenya as a grocery retail market compared to other countries in Africa and East Africa?
- How will grocery retail spend overall and per capita grow through to 2021?

- Kenya is the second largest grocery retail market in East Africa, after Ethiopia.
- Perhaps surprisingly for a market many consider well developed, per capita spending levels are ranked only 22nd in Africa.
- Living standards are, however, among the highest in East Africa and above those in direct neighbours.
- Between 2012 and 2016, the grocery retail market in Kenya gained more than $3bn in value, although there are concerns around the pace of economic growth in 2017.
- Kenya's modern trade is well developed for the region, but its outstanding feature is the large number of domestic and regional supermarket players.