Oil Refining Market - Growth, Trends And Forecast (2020 - 2025)
The global refining capacity is expected to register a CAGR of around 1.25% during 2020-2025, with majority of refinery coming in Asia -Pacific and the Middle East. With current global refining capacity of around 100 million barrel per day (mbd), Asia Pacific dominates the market with around 35% of global refining capacity. The growth in refining capacity is mainly driven by the demand of petro-products in a region, and runs parallelly with the growth of human and vehicle population. It is expected to have around 8.1 billion human population and more than 100 million vehicles on roads by 2025. However, the refining market is restrained by factors such as lack of funds, delay in commissioning projects, acquiring lands, and rising electric vehicle population in the developed and developing nations.
- With increasing demand for refined products, especially in the Asia-Pacific, is expected to drive the oil refining market during the forecast period. Though, demand for refined products exists in other parts of the world, but due to the increasing vehicle population in Asia-Pacific, it has the highest demand.
- The global energy demand is anticipated to grow by triple in the next two decades. This growth in demand can be attributed to the growing world population and an improvement in living standards in developing countries. Even though the new and renewable energy sources are gaining popularity around the world, refined fuel is expected to remain as a major energy source globally and is expected to create opportunity in the near future.
- Asia-Pacific is expected to remain the major player in oil refining market. During 2018, the region covers around 34% of the global refining capacity and is expected to remain the major player during the forecast period with upcoming major refinery projects in China, and India.
Key Market Trends
Expansion in Downstream Infrastructure
- The demand for oil as fuel in the transportation sector is likely to maintain its momentum in the short term. The recovery in oil consumption growth, driven by lower oil prices, supported the momentum.
- As of 2018, there were above 470 planned and announced petrochemical plants, out of which China is expected to have 240 plants with a total capacity of around 100 MTPA by 2026. The capital expenditure for the projects in China accounted for about USD 52 billion.
- In the United States, there are above 95 planned and announced projects, which are expected to have a total capacity of up to 63 MTPA by 2026. The CAPEX for these projects stands at around USD 53 billion. Major capacity additions in the country are likely to be initiated by IGP Methanol LLC and NW Innovation Works.
Asia-Pacific to Dominate the Market
- Asia-Pacific is the region, with highest refining capacity. During 2018, the region has a refining capacity of around 34 million barrels per day. China and India are the key player in the region that share nearly 20% of the global refining capacity, in 2018.
- China is expected to account for the major growth in crude oil refining between 2019 and 2025 in Asia-Pacific (APAC). The country is expected to account for 26.8%, an increase of 1.77% from 2018, of the total refining expansion capacity in APAC by 2025.
- Also, India’s refining capacity has witnessed a CAGR of 3.36% between 2009-10 and 2018-19. As of August 2018, India Oil Corp., India’s largest refining company, aimed to increase its refining capacity from 80.7 million metric ton per annum to 150 million metric ton per annum by 2030. Projects worth INR 320 billion are in various stages of execution.
- South-east Asia is witnessing the commissioning of a number of refinery projects including the expansion of existing ones and developing new ones to reduce the dependency on imports, which is expected to create an opportunity for the market to during the upcoming years.
The global refining market is moderately fragmented with key players such as Exxon Mobil Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Sinopec Corp., BP plc, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Valero Energy Corporation, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Chevron Corporation, Rosneft PAO, and Total SA.
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- 1 INTRODUCTION
- 1.1 Scope of Study
- 1.2 Market Definition
- 1.3 Study Assumptions
- 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
- 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 4 MARKET OVERVIEW
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Oil Refining Market in USD billion, till 2025
- 4.3 Refining Throughput, in barrels per day, till 2018
- 4.4 Recent Trends and Developments
- 4.5 Government Policies and Regulations
- 4.6 Market Dynamics
- 4.6.1 Drivers
- 4.6.2 Restraints
- 4.7 Supply Chain Analysis
- 4.8 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
- 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
- 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
- 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
- 4.8.4 Threat of Substitute Products and Services
- 4.8.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
- 5 MARKET SEGMENTATION
- 5.1 Geography
- 5.1.1 North America
- 5.1.2 Asia-Pacific
- 5.1.3 Europe
- 5.1.4 South America
- 5.1.5 Middle-East and Africa
- 6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
- 6.1 Mergers & Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
- 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
- 6.3 Company Profiles
- 6.3.1 Exxon Mobil Corporation
- 6.3.2 Royal Dutch Shell Plc
- 6.3.3 Sinopec Corp.
- 6.3.4 BP plc
- 6.3.5 Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
- 6.3.6 Valero Energy Corporation
- 6.3.7 Petroleos de Venezuela SA
- 6.3.8 China National Petroleum Corporation
- 6.3.9 Chevron Corporation
- 6.3.10 Rosneft PAO
- 6.3.11 Total SA
- 7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS