Type 2 Diabetes - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

Type 2 Diabetes - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

Summary

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, or T2D for short, refers to a defect in insulin secretion and sensitivity, whereby the β-cells in the pancreas fail to secrete sufficient amounts of insulin and cells fail to uptake adequate amounts of insulin due to loss of sensitivity, commonly referred to as insulin resistance. The dysfunction of pancreatic β-cells is thought to be caused by a defect in their signaling, resulting in raised blood sugar (hypoglycemia), which over time leads to multiple comorbidities requiring continuous medical vigilance. Many of the current therapies for T2D are unable to alter the disease’s natural course, with glycemic control deteriorating over time, resulting in complex treatment regimensNew therapies entering the market will be the main drivers of growth, with recently launched GLP-1RA Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) likely to obtain a large share of the non-insulin T2D drug market and biosimilar and oral insulins likely to obtain large market share from their costly branded originators. Other major drivers for the T2D market are the increasing prevalence of obesity and the increasing prevalence of cardiovascular and kidney disease . Based on epidemiological analysis by GlobalData, the number of diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D will grow by 28.76% over the forecast period, at an AGR of 2.3%, from 164,826,095 cases in 2018 to 216,029,212 cases by 2029 across the nine major pharmaceutical markets covered in this report, the US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), Japan, India and China. GlobalData projects that the marketplace for T2D within the 9MM will grow from $48bn in 2019 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% to $91.9B by 2029. In particular, GlobalData expects US market will contribute the most to the antidiabetic market’s growth, contributing sales in $28B sales in 2019 (58% of the global antidiabetic market) and $57B in 2029 (62% of the global antidiabetic market). In terms of the current treatment landscape, the consensus among interviewed physicians was that they have a number of efficacious treatment options at their disposal though there are still patients that are unable to achieve optimal glycemic control, address insulin resistance and reverse or slow the decline in β-cell function, and therefore notable unmet needs remain. KOLs interviewed by GlobalData highlighted the lack of treatment options for patients with T2D and complex comorbidities, such as cardiorenal disease, remains to be an extremely important unmet need. Another major issue mentioned is the cost of insulin treatment, with a strong need for controls on insulin drug pricing and a fair price for biosimilar insulins. In addition, drug classes across the T2D marketplace, often have poor side-effect profiles and there is an urgent need to broaden the drugs available to T2D patients to allow for safer more tailor-made therapies. Despite a number of drugs currently in development, GlobalData’s research suggests that the future level of attainment of these unmet needs will be modest, and a relatively high level of opportunity exists for drug developers to enter the T2D market.

Key Highlights

  • The proportion of people at risk of developing T2D is expected to increase over the 10-year forecast period due to changes increased life expectancy coupled with rapid socioeconomic change, increased prevalence of obesity and the increased prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease
  • The potential launch of 6 late-stage pipeline agents will increase the number of patients who can be offered pharmacological treatment options. In addition, three of these drugs in late-stage development are expected to have a high annual cost of therapy (ACOT), a factor that will contribute to notable profitability.
  • Cardiorenal disease is being increasingly recognized in clinical practice and there has been a renewed interest among the medical community to understand the pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning its pathogenesis.
  • Despite the plethora of therapies currently available to T2D patients, there is still room for improvement within the treatment space. The most recognizable is the need for novel treatment options for patients unable to achieve optimal glycemic control
KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

Despite the existence of numerous well-established treatment options in the T2D space, a few-yet significant-unmet needs remain.
  • Which unmet needs are the most pressing in the 9MM?
  • Where should pharmaceutical companies focus drug development efforts in order to become a significant player in the space?
The T2D market has been overcrowded by drug developers launching ‘Me-Too’ therapies for many years, though more recently, clinical development activity has resulted in more innovative treatments
  • What are the most promising late-stage candidates and how much they expected to generate over the forecast period?
  • What do KOLs say about their clinical and commercial positioning?
T2D remains a highly prevalent condition, and there are many new and emerging players entering the space, as well as more established companies developing novel therapies
  • Which have been historically the companies leading the way?
  • What new companies are emerging in the space?
Scope
  • Overview of T2D: including epidemiology, disease etiology and management.
  • Topline T2D drugs market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and anticipated sales for major late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Key topics covered include assessment of current and pipeline therapies, unmet needs, current and future players and market outlook for the US, 5EU, Japan, India and China over the 10-year forecast period.
  • Pipeline analysis: Emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global T2D therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges.
  • Reasons to Buy

    The report will enable you to -
    • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
    • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global angina pectoris therapeutics market.
    • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global angina pectoris market in the future.
    • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
    • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
    • Track drug sales in the global angina pectoris therapeutics market from 2019-2029.
    • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.


    1 Table of Contents
    1.1 List of Tables
    1.2 List of Figures
    2 Type 2 Diabetes (T2D): Executive Summary
    2.1 Continued, Significant Growth in the T2D Market, With Drug Sales Expected to Almost Double Across the 9MM by the End of the Forecast Period
    2.2 T2D Developers Battle for Share in an Increasingly Crowded Market
    2.3 Decrease in Sales Among Branded T2D Drugs Across the 9MM
    2.4 Glucagon-Like Peptide -1 Receptor Agonist Class Faces Intense Internal Competition, Largely Revolving Around Drugs’ Ability to Improve Patient Compliance/Ease of Administration and Reduced Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events
    2.5 Label Expansions for SGLT-2 Inhibitors
    2.6 What Do Physicians Think?
    3 Introduction
    3.1 Catalyst
    3.2 Related Reports
    4 Disease Overview
    4.1 Etiology
    4.2 Pathophysiology
    4.3 Symptoms
    4.4 Prognosis and Quality of Life
    5 Epidemiology
    5.1 Disease Background
    5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
    5.3 Global and Historical Trends
    5.4 Forecast Methodology
    5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Type 2 Diabetes (2018-2028)
    5.6 Discussion
    6 Disease Management
    6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
    6.2 US
    6.3 5EU
    6.4 Japan
    6.5 China
    6.6 India
    7 Competitive Assessment
    7.1 Overview
    8 Unmet Needs and Opportunities
    8.1 Overview
    8.2 Disease-Modifying Treatments Providing Sustained Glycemic Control
    8.3 Drugs with Non-glycemic Benefits
    8.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles
    8.5 Increased Patient Compliance
    8.6 Drugs for the Emergent T2D Pediatric Population
    8.7 Controls on Insulin Drug Pricing and the Need for Fairly Priced Biologics
    9 Pipeline Assessment
    9.1 Overview
    9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
    10 Current and Future Players
    10.1 Overview
    10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
    10.3 Company Profiles
    11 Market Outlook
    11.1 Global Markets
    11.2 US
    11.3 5EU
    11.4 Japan
    11.5 China
    11.6 India
    12 Appendix
    List of Tables
    Table 1: T2D: Key Metrics in the Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets
    Table 2: Primary Pathophysiologic Conditions Associated with T2D
    Table 3: Symptoms of T2D presents an overview of the most frequently observed symptoms for T2D.
    Table 4: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for T2D
    Table 5: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Diagnosing T2D
    Table 6: Country Profile, T2D Management, US
    Table 7: Country Profile, T2D Management, France
    Table 8: Country Profile, T2D Management, Germany
    Table 9: Absence of Typical T2D Symptoms, Italy
    Table 10: Individuals with Increased Risk of T2D, Italy
    Table 11: Country Profile, T2D Management, Italy
    Table 12: Country Profile, T2D Management, Spain
    Table 13: Country Profile, T2D Management, UK
    Table 14: Country Profile, T2D Management, Japan
    Table 15: Country Profile, T2D Management, China
    Table 16: Country Profile, T2D Management, India
    Table 17: Leading Branded Treatments for T2D, 2020
    Table 18: Eli Lilly’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 19: Novo Nordisk’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 20: Sanofi’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 21: AstraZeneca’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 22: Merck’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 23: BI’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 24: GSK’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 25: Takeda’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 26: Roche’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 27: Pfizer’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 28: J&J’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 29: Novartis’ T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 30: Theracos’ T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 31: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 32: Hua Medicine Shanghai T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 33: Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 34: Jiagnsu Hengrui Medicine Ltd T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 35: Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 36: Torrent Pharmaceuticals T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 37: Biocon Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 38: Oramed Pharmaceuticals T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 39: Chipscreen Biosciences Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 40: CSPC Zhongnuo Pharmaceutical (Shijiazhuang) Co Ltd, T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020
    Table 41: T2D Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2020
    Table 42: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in the US, 2019-2029
    Table 43: T2D Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2020
    Table 44: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in the 5EU, 2019-2029
    Table 45: T2D Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2020
    Table 46: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in Japan, 2019-2029
    List of Figures
    Figure 1: Global Sales By Region (Type 2 Diabetes) 2019 and 2029
    Figure 2: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in T2D, 2019-2029
    Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage (Phase III) Pipeline Agents in T2D, 2019-2029
    Figure 4: T2D Pathophysiology
    Figure 5: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of T2D (%), Men, All Ages, 2018
    Figure 6: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of T2D (%), Women, All Ages, 2018
    Figure 7: 9MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of CKD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 9: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of CVD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 10: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Obesity Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 11: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Hypertension Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 12: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 13: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Atherosclerosis Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D
    Figure 14: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 15: 9MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, N, 2018
    Figure 16: 9MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of CVD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 20: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Hypertension Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 21: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 22: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Atherosclerosis Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018
    Figure 23: ADA Treatment Algorithm for Antihyperglycemic Therapy in T2D
    Figure 24: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in T2D
    Figure 25: Pipeline Agents in Development for T2D
    Figure 26: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents That GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for T2D in the 9MM During the Forecast Period
    Figure 27: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in T2D, 2019-2029
    Figure 28: Global Sales for T2D by Country/Region, 2019 and 2029
    Figure 29: Sales for T2D in the US by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029
    Figure 30: Sales for T2D in the 5EU by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029
    Figure 31: Sales for T2D inJapan by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

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