Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028
Vaccine hesitancy throughout North America and Europe will prevent vaccination rates in these regions from significantly increasing over the next 10 years, and therefore represents a major barrier to growth in the pediatric combination vaccines market. The market for key pediatric combination vaccines in the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, India, and Canada) will decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9% from 2018 to 2028, with a primary contributor to this contraction being the impact vaccine hesitancy has on childhood vaccination rates.
Well-organized immunization schedules for infants, children, and adolescents are the cornerstone of public health campaigns in most developed and developing countries. In particular, vaccines are the most effective method of protecting the general population and select groups of people against infectious diseases. In the US alone, childhood vaccines are estimated to prevent 14 million infections, avoid 33,000 premature deaths annually, and save $43bn in direct and indirect costs for each fully vaccinated US birth cohort.
Across the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM; US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, India), routine childhood vaccination schedules include a series of vaccines that afford protection against approximately infectious diseases. The gradual introduction of combination vaccines which can protect against a greater number of these diseases has dramatically reduced the number of injections required, without sacrificing protective efficacy.
The pediatric combination market in the 9MM was estimated to be worth over $7.6bn in 2018; however, due to a reduction in the population receiving childhood vaccines and a lack of novel products entering the market, the market will be valued at just under $7.0bn by 2028. There are two key contributors to the decreasing number of children receiving routine vaccinations over the next decade; a slowing birth rate in most countries, and vaccine hesitancy.
Although vaccine hesitancy has now been acknowledged as a major threat to public health by both national and international bodies, it is further indicated that initiatives developed to tackle the issue will only have a marginal impact. Therefore, only a very gradual improvement in childhood vaccination rates is anticipated over the next 10 years. Since vaccination rates are only expected to grow slowly it will not make up for the declining childhood populations in the 9MM.
As the first 6-in-1 childhood vaccine available in the US, Vaxelis is expected to garner significant patient share following its launch in 2020. Because of the benefits it can boast, such as reducing shot-burden for infants and increasing the likelihood of adhering to vaccination schedules, it is anticipated to account for almost a third of all DTaP vaccinations in the US by 2028. Sales of Vaxelis will achieve annual sales of $841M in the US by 2028. This is despite it only being viable for the first three doses of the primary DTaP vaccine series.
Vaxelis will drive market growth in the US, but this will be overshadowed by substantial contraction in the India pediatric combination vaccine market due to the launch of domestically developed and manufactured vaccines. The launch of domestically manufactured vaccines in India will be the cause of 9MM market contraction, because these vaccines will be available a substantial discount compared to rival foreign manufacturers.
The report Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028 analyzes pediatric combination vaccine therapeutic market landscape in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, India, Canada) from 2018-2028.
Key Questions Answered by the report:
Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.Download eBook