Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

Summary

Vaccine hesitancy throughout North America and Europe will prevent vaccination rates in these regions from significantly increasing over the next 10 years, and therefore represents a major barrier to growth in the pediatric combination vaccines market. The market for key pediatric combination vaccines in the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, India, and Canada) will decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9% from 2018 to 2028, with a primary contributor to this contraction being the impact vaccine hesitancy has on childhood vaccination rates.

Well-organized immunization schedules for infants, children, and adolescents are the cornerstone of public health campaigns in most developed and developing countries. In particular, vaccines are the most effective method of protecting the general population and select groups of people against infectious diseases. In the US alone, childhood vaccines are estimated to prevent 14 million infections, avoid 33,000 premature deaths annually, and save $43bn in direct and indirect costs for each fully vaccinated US birth cohort.

Across the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM; US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, India), routine childhood vaccination schedules include a series of vaccines that afford protection against approximately infectious diseases. The gradual introduction of combination vaccines which can protect against a greater number of these diseases has dramatically reduced the number of injections required, without sacrificing protective efficacy.

The pediatric combination market in the 9MM was estimated to be worth over $7.6bn in 2018; however, due to a reduction in the population receiving childhood vaccines and a lack of novel products entering the market, the market will be valued at just under $7.0bn by 2028. There are two key contributors to the decreasing number of children receiving routine vaccinations over the next decade; a slowing birth rate in most countries, and vaccine hesitancy.

Although vaccine hesitancy has now been acknowledged as a major threat to public health by both national and international bodies, it is further indicated that initiatives developed to tackle the issue will only have a marginal impact. Therefore, only a very gradual improvement in childhood vaccination rates is anticipated over the next 10 years. Since vaccination rates are only expected to grow slowly it will not make up for the declining childhood populations in the 9MM.

As the first 6-in-1 childhood vaccine available in the US, Vaxelis is expected to garner significant patient share following its launch in 2020. Because of the benefits it can boast, such as reducing shot-burden for infants and increasing the likelihood of adhering to vaccination schedules, it is anticipated to account for almost a third of all DTaP vaccinations in the US by 2028. Sales of Vaxelis will achieve annual sales of $841M in the US by 2028. This is despite it only being viable for the first three doses of the primary DTaP vaccine series.

Vaxelis will drive market growth in the US, but this will be overshadowed by substantial contraction in the India pediatric combination vaccine market due to the launch of domestically developed and manufactured vaccines. The launch of domestically manufactured vaccines in India will be the cause of 9MM market contraction, because these vaccines will be available a substantial discount compared to rival foreign manufacturers.

The report Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028 analyzes pediatric combination vaccine therapeutic market landscape in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, India, Canada) from 2018-2028.

Key Questions Answered by the report:

  • What routine pediatric vaccines are in clinical development?
  • How do the clinical and commercial attributes of pediatric vaccines in development compare with one another, and against existing vaccines?
  • What are the remaining unmet needs in routine pediatric vaccinations?
  • What drivers and barriers will affect routine pediatric vaccine sales in the 9MM over the forecast period?
Scope
  • Overview of vaccines used in routine immunization of infants and children for DTaP, Tdap, IPV, HBV, Hib, HAV, MMR, varicella, rotavirus, and Japanese encephalitis.
  • Topline pediatric vaccine market revenue from 2018-2028. Annual cost of therapy (ACOT) and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
  • Key topics covered include currently available vaccines, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting pediatric vaccine sales in the 9MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of pipeline products.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pediatric vaccines market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global pediatric vaccines market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the pediatric combination vaccines market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships."


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Executive Summary
2.1 Domestically Produced Vaccines in India will drive 9MM Market Contraction
2.2 Ability to Bundle Pediatric Vaccines is Key to Commercial Success
2.3 Vaccine Hesitancy Is a Major Threat to Public Health
2.4 Domestic Suppliers to Dominate Future Market in India and Japan
2.5 What Do Physicians Think?
3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
3.3 Upcoming Related Reports
4 Overview of Vaccine Preventable Diseases
4.1 Summary
4.2 Diseases
4.2.1 Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections
4.2.2 Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections
4.2.3 RNA Viral Infections
4.2.4 DNA Viral Infections
4.3 Pathogens
5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Averted by Childhood Vaccinations
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.3.1 North America
5.3.2 Europe
5.3.3 Asia
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.4.3 Pediatric Vaccination Rates in the Total Population
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pediatric Vaccines (2018-2028)
5.5.1 US Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.2 France Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.3 Germany Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.4 Italy Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.5 Spain Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.6 UK Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.7 Japan Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.8 Canada Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.5.9 India Vaccinated Pediatric Population
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis
6 Immunization Recommendations and Schedules
6.1 Overview
6.2 US
6.3 5EU
6.3.1 France
6.3.2 Germany
6.3.3 Italy
6.3.4 Spain
6.3.5 UK
6.4 Japan
6.5 India
6.6 Canada
7 Competitive Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 DTaP
7.3 MMR and Varicella
7.4 Rotavirus
7.5 Japanese Encephalitis
8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
8.1 Overview
8.2 Combatting Vaccine Hesitancy
8.3 Consistent Immunization Across Demographics
8.3.1 Age Groups
8.3.2 Rural Versus Urban
8.3.3 Regional Differences
8.4 Vaccines with Improved Safety, Duration of Protection, and Coverage
8.5 Expansion of Immunization Programs
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
10 Current and Future Players
10.1 Overview
10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
10.3 Company Profiles
10.3.1 GlaxoSmithKline
10.3.2 Merck & Co.
10.3.3 Sanofi Pasteur
10.3.4 Serum Institute of India
11 Market Outlook
11.1 Global Markets
11.1.1 Forecast
11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
11.2 US
11.2.1 Forecast
11.2.2 Key Events
11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.3 5EU
11.3.1 Forecast
11.3.2 Key Events
11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.4 Japan
11.4.1 Forecast
11.4.2 Key Events
11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.5 India
11.5.1 Forecast
11.5.2 Key Events
11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.6 Canada
11.6.1 Forecast
11.6.2 Drivers and Barriers
12 Appendix
12.1 Bibliography
12.2 Abbreviations
12.3 Methodology
12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
12.3.2 Number of Vaccinations Administered
12.3.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
12.3.4 Launch Dates
12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions
12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions
12.3.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
12.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
12.4.1 KOLs
12.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
12.6 About the Authors
12.6.1 Analyst
12.6.2 Therapy Area Director
12.6.3 Epidemiologist
12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
12.7 About GlobalData
12.8 Contact Us
12.9 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Key Metrics in the 9MM
Table 2: Diseases Preventable Through Routine Pediatric Immunizations
Table 3: Summary of the Key Characteristics of the Pathogens Responsible for Each Vaccine-Preventable Disease
Table 4: Global Impact of Major Childhood Vaccines in Reducing Morbidity and Mortality
Table 5: Pediatric Vaccination Rate Trends in North America (%)
Table 6: Pediatric Vaccination Rate Trends in Europe (%)
Table 7: Pediatric Vaccination Rate Trends in Asia (%)
Table 8: Public Health Organizations Governing National Immunization Schedules Across the 9MM
Table 9: Leading Routine DTaP Combination Pediatric Vaccines, 2019
Table 10: Leading Routine MMR Combination Pediatric Vaccines, 2019
Table 11: Leading Routine Rotavirus Combination Pediatric Vaccines, 2018
Table 12: GlaxoSmithKline’s Routine Pediatric Vaccines Portfolio Assessment, 2018
Table 13: Merck’s Routine Pediatric Vaccines Portfolio Assessment, 2018
Table 14: Sanofi’s Routine Pediatric Vaccines Portfolio Assessment, 2018
Table 15: Serum’s Routine Pediatric Vaccines Portfolio Assessment, 2018
Table 16: Pediatric Combination Vaccine Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018-2028
Table 17: Key Events Impacting Sales of Pediatric Combination Vaccines in the US, 2018-2028
Table 18: Pediatric Combination Vaccines Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018-2028
Table 19: Key Events Impacting Sales of Pediatric Combination Vaccines in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 20: Pediatric Combination Vaccines Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 21: Key Events Impacting Sales of Pediatric Combination Vaccines in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 22: Pediatric Combination Vaccine Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 23: Key Events Impacting Sales of Pediatric Combination Vaccines in India, 2018-2028
Table 24: Pediatric Combination Vaccines Market - Drivers and Barriers in the India, 2018-2028
Table 25: Pediatric Combination Vaccines Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Canada, 2018-2028
Table 26: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Pediatric Combination Vaccines
Table 27: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country
List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Pediatric Combination Vaccines in 2018 and 2028
Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Pediatric Combination Vaccines During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Recently Approved and Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be launched During the Forecast Period
Figure 4: 9MM, Sources Used and Not Used for the Vaccinated Pediatric Population
Figure 5: US, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 6: France, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 7: Germany, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 8: Italy, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 9: Spain, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 10: UK, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 11: Japan, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 12: Canada, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 13: India, Vaccinated Pediatric Population, Boys and Girls, 2018 and 2028
Figure 14: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in the US, 2018
Figure 15: Measles Vaccination Rates in the 5EU, 2006-2016.
Figure 16: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in France, 2018
Figure 17: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in Germany, 2018
Figure 18: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in Italy, 2018
Figure 19: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in Spain, 2018
Figure 20: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in the UK, 2018
Figure 21: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in Japan, 2017
Figure 22: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in India
Figure 23: Schedule for Pediatric Vaccines in Canada
Figure 24: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Routine Pediatric Vaccines
Figure 25: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Routine Pediatric Vaccines, by Developer Location
Figure 26: Competitive Assessment of the Recently Approved and Late-Stage Pipeline Agents Expected to Launch During the Forecast Period
Figure 27: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Pediatric Vaccines During the Forecast Period
Figure 28: Global (9MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Pediatric Combination Vaccines in 2018 and 2028
Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Pediatric Combination Vaccine Type in the US in 2018 and 2028
Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Pediatric Combination Vaccine Type in the 5EU in 2018 and 2028
Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Pediatric Combination Vaccine Type in the Japan in 2018 and 2028
Figure 32: Sales Forecast by Pediatric Combination Vaccine Type in India in 2018 and 2028
Figure 33: Sales Forecast by Pediatric Combination Vaccine Type in Canada in 2018 and 2028

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