Malaria: Epidemiology Forecast to 2027

Malaria: Epidemiology Forecast to 2027

Summary

Malaria is a vector-borne disease caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Malaria is transmitted through the bite of the female Anopheles mosquito. Upon infecting a new human host, parasites first travel to liver cells and eventually infect erythrocytes (red blood cells). Once erythrocytes have been infected, patients may exhibit symptoms such as fever, headache, and chills. However, some patients exhibit no symptoms. If left untreated, malaria can progress to a severe form that results in cerebral malaria, anemia, respiratory distress, kidney failure, and possibly death.

GlobalData epidemiologists provide a 10-year epidemiological forecast for confirmed incident cases and confirmed deaths from malaria segmented by sex and age in these markets. This report also forecasts confirmed cases segmented by Plasmodium species, P. falciparum cases with K13 propeller mutations, and seroprevalence of Plasmodium infection in pregnant women.

In 2017, there were 33,158,385 confirmed incident cases of malaria in the 6MM. The DRC had the most cases with 15,915,007, while Indonesia had the fewest with 194,913. The number of confirmed cases in the 6MM is expected to grow to 39,960,547 by 2027, for an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 2.05%. In 2017, there were 49,490 confirmed deaths from malaria in the 6MM. The DRC had the most confirmed deaths with 38,938, while Indonesia had the fewest with 182. The number of confirmed deaths from malaria in the 6MM is expected to grow to 59,810 in 2027, for an AGR of 2.09%.

Scope

  • The Malaria Epidemiology Forecast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of Malaria in the six major markets (6MM: the Democratic Republic of the Congo [DRC], Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, India, and Indonesia).
  • This report also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for confirmed incident cases and confirmed deaths from malaria segmented by sex and age in these markets. This report also forecasts confirmed cases segmented by Plasmodium species, P. falciparum cases with K13 propeller mutations, and seroprevalence of Plasmodium infection in pregnant women.
  • The malaria allergy epidemiology forecast report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The Epidemiology Forecast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent, and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.
Reasons to buy

The Malaria Epidemiology Forecast report will allow you to -
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global malaria market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global malaria market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for malaria therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
  • Understand magnitude of malaria population by mutations.


1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 3
1.2 List of Figures 3
2 Malaria: Executive Summary 4
2.1 Related Reports 6
2.2 Upcoming Reports 7
3 Epidemiology 8
3.1 Disease Background 8
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.3 Global and Historical Trends 10
3.3.1 DRC 12
3.3.2 Ghana 13
3.3.3 Kenya 13
3.3.4 Nigeria 13
3.3.5 India 14
3.3.6 Indonesia 14
3.4 Forecast Methodology 15
3.4.1 Sources 15
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 19
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Malaria (20172027) 25
3.5.1 Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria 25
3.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria 26
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria 26
3.5.4 Confirmed Deaths from Malaria 27
3.5.5 Confirmed Incident Cases by Plasmodium Species 28
3.5.6 P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations 29
3.5.7 Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women 30
3.6 Discussion 31
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 31
3.6.2 Limitations of Analysis 32
3.6.3 Strengths of Analysis 33
4 Appendix 34
4.1 Bibliography 34
4.2 About the Authors 40
4.2.1 Epidemiologist 40
4.2.2 Reviewers 40
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 41
4.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy 42
4.3 About GlobalData 43
4.4 Contact Us 43
4.5 Disclaimer 43
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Malaria 9
Table 2: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years, 2017-2027 25
Table 3: 6M, Confirmed Deaths from Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2017-2027 28
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 6MM, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2017 and 2027 5
Figure 2: 6MM, Confirmed Deaths from Malaria, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2017 and 2027 6
Figure 3: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Men, 2007-2027 11
Figure 4: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Women, 2007-2027 12
Figure 5: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Confirmed Incident Cases and Deaths 16
Figure 6: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Cases by Plasmodium Species and K13 Mutations 17
Figure 7: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Pregnant Women 18
Figure 8: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women 19
Figure 9: 6M, Age-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, 2017 26
Figure 10: 6M, Sex-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, All Ages, 2017 27
Figure 11: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria by Plasmodium Species, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017 29
Figure 12: 6M, P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017 30
Figure 13: 6M, Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women, 2017-2027 31

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