Major Depressive Disorder - US Drug Forecast and Market Assessment to 2025

Major Depressive Disorder - US Drug Forecast and Market Assessment to 2025


Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most common psychiatric diseases worldwide. It is characterized by single or recurrent major depressive episodes (MDEs), where patients can typically experience periods of depressed mood, loss of energy, abnormal cognition, anxiety and suicidal ideation. Similar to other neuropsychiatric disorders, MDD has a multifaceted and varied etiology, and remains poorly understood. The MDD market is crowded and competitive, with more than 30 products available for the treatment of patients, the majority of which are now available as inexpensive generics. The MDD market is therefore in a dynamic phase where patent expiries for historically top-selling products such as Eli Lilly’s Cymbalta and Otsuka/BMS’ Abilify have occurred, and recent launches of Lundbeck/Takeda’s Trintellix and Otsuka/Lundbeck’s Rexulti will be a significant driver of growth in the 7MM. Growth in the MDD market is also expected to be driven by the potential introduction of six promising late-stage pipeline products into the market during the forecast period, all of which are directed towards treatment-resistant patients, a significant unmet need.

GlobalData estimates that the MDD market will undergo a period of steady growth from 2015 to 2025, mainly attributed to the growth in atypical antipsychotics and the expected launch of five pipeline products.GlobalData anticipates that five products in the late-stage pipeline will enter the MDD market in the US during the forecast period: Alkermes’ ALKS-5461, Allergan/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Vraylar, Axsome Therapeutics’ AXS-05, Janssen’s esketamine, and Allergan’s rapastinel.


  • Overview of MDD including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
  • Detailed information on the key drugs in the US including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
  • Sales forecast for the top drugs in the US from 2015-2025.
  • Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the US MDD market.
Reasons to buy
  • Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
  • Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for MDD.
  • Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
  • Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
  • Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2015-2025 in the US.

1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 Related Reports
2.2 Upcoming Related Reports
3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Classification
3.3 Symptoms and Subtypes of Major Depressive Disorder
3.4 Prognosis
3.5 Quality of Life
4 Disease Management
4.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
4.1.1 Diagnosis
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines
4.1.3 Clinical Practice
4.2 US
5 Competitive Assessment
5.1 Overview
5.2 Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors
5.2.1 Lexapro (Escitalopram)
5.2.2 Viibryd (Vilazodone)
5.2.3 Other Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors
5.3 Serotonin-Norepinephrine Reuptake Inhibitors
5.3.1 Cymbalta (Duloxetine)
5.3.2 Effexor (Venlafaxine)
5.3.3 Fetzima (Levomilnacipran)
5.3.4 Savella (Milnacipran)
5.3.5 Pristiq (Desvenlafaxine)
5.4 Multimodal Antidepressants
5.4.1 Trintellix (Vortioxetine)
5.5 Other Antidepressants
5.5.1 Bupropion
5.5.2 Symbyax (Olanzapine/Fluoxetine)
5.5.3 Mirtazapine
5.5.4 Monoamine Oxidase Inhibitors
5.5.5 Tricyclic Antidepressants
5.6 Antipsychotics
5.6.1 Abilify (Aripiprazole)
5.6.2 Seroquel XR (Quetiapine XR)
5.6.3 Rexulti (Brexpiprazole)
5.7 Other Therapeutic Classes
6 Unmet Need and Opportunity
6.1 Overview
6.2 New Therapies with Better Efficacy
6.2.1 Unmet Need
6.2.2 Gap Analysis
6.2.3 Opportunity
6.3 Improved Safety Profiles
6.3.1 Unmet Need
6.3.2 Gap Analysis
6.3.3 Opportunity
6.4 Rapid Onset of Action
6.4.1 Unmet Need
6.4.2 Gap Analysis
6.4.3 Opportunity
6.5 Personalized Treatment Approach
6.5.1 Unmet Need
6.5.2 Gap Analysis
6.5.3 Opportunity
6.6 Manage Patient Outcome Expectations
6.6.1 Unmet Need
6.6.2 Gap Analysis
6.6.3 Opportunity
7 Pipeline Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Clinical Trial Mapping
7.2.1 Clinical Trials by Class of Therapy
7.3 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
7.3.1 ALKS-5461
7.3.2 Vraylar (Cariprazine)
7.3.3 ASC-01
7.3.4 AXS-05
7.3.5 Esketamine
7.3.6 Rapastinel (GLYX-13)
7.3.7 Strada (MSI-195)
7.3.8 Viotra (Tramadol)
7.4 Promising Drugs in Early-Stage Development
7.4.1 CGP3466B
7.4.2 NSI-189
7.5 Other Drugs in Development
8 Market Outlook
8.1 US
8.1.1 Forecast
8.1.2 Key Events
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers
9 Appendix
9.1 Bibliography
9.2 Abbreviations
9.3 Methodology
9.4 Forecasting Methodology
9.4.1 Diagnosed NSCLC Patients
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions
9.4.7 Generic Erosion
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
9.5 Primary Research - KOLs
9.5.1 KOLs
9.6 About the Authors
9.6.1 Analyst
9.6.2 Therapy Area Director
9.6.3 Epidemiologist
9.6.4 Global Head of Healthcare
9.7 About GlobalData
9.8 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Classification and Criteria of MDD (DSM-IV) and MDE (ICD-10)
Table 2: Subtypes of Major Depressive Disorder
Table 3: Severity of Depressive Episodes According to ICD-10 and DSM-IV Diagnostic Criteria
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Major Depressive Disorder
Table 5: Most-Prescribed Drugs for MDD by Class in the 7MM, 2015
Table 6: Country Profile - US
Table 7: Leading Treatments for MDD, 2016
Table 8: Product Profile - Lexapro
Table 9: Lexapro/Cipralex SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 10: Product Profile - Viibryd
Table 11: Summary of Efficacy Results for the Primary Endpoint in Viibryd Clinical Trials
Table 12: Viibryd SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 13: Summary of SSRIs, 2016
Table 14: SSRIs SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 15: Product Profile - Cymbalta
Table 16: Cymbalta SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 17: Product Profile - Effexor
Table 18: Effexor SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 19: Product Profile - Fetzima
Table 20: Fetzima SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 21: Product Profile - Savella
Table 22: Savella SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 23: Product Profile - Pristiq
Table 24: Pristiq SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 25: Product Profile - Trintellix
Table 26: Trintellix SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 27: Product Profile - Bupropion
Table 28: Bupropion SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 29: Product Profile - Symbyax
Table 30: Symbyax SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 31: Product Profile - Mirtazapine
Table 32: Mirtazapine SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 33: MAOIs SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 34: TCAs SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 35: Product Profile - Abilify
Table 36: Abilify SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 37: Product Profile - Seroquel XR
Table 38: Seroquel XR SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 39: Product Profile - Rexulti
Table 40: Rexulti SWOT Analysis, 2016
Table 41: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes in MDD, 2016
Table 42: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in MDD
Table 43: Promising Drugs in Clinical Development for MDD, 2016
Table 44: Comparison of Drugs in Development for MDD, 2016
Table 45: Product Profile - ALKS-5461
Table 46: SWOT Analysis - ALKS-5461, 2016
Table 47: Product Profile - Vraylar
Table 48: SWOT Analysis - Vraylar, 2016
Table 49: Product Profile - ASC-01
Table 50: SWOT Analysis - ASC-01, 2016
Table 51: Product Profile - AXS-05
Table 52: SWOT Analysis - AXS-05, 2016
Table 53: Product Profile - Esketamine
Table 54: SWOT Analysis - Esketamine, 2016
Table 55: Product Profile - Rapastinel
Table 56: SWOT Analysis - Rapastinel, 2016
Table 57: Product Profile - Strada
Table 58: SWOT Analysis - Strada, 2016
Table 59: Product Profile - Viotra
Table 60: SWOT Analysis - Viotra, 2015
Table 61: Drugs in Development, 2016
Table 62: Key Events Impacting Sales for MDD Therapies in the US, 2015-2025
Table 63: MDD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2015-2025
Table 64: Key Launch Dates - Part I
Table 65: Key Launch Dates - Part II
Table 66: Key Patent Expiries
Table 67 Average Body Weight and Surface Area Across the 8MM
Table 68: Average Cost of Therapy of Alimta in the 8MM
Table 69: Average Cost of Therapy of Alecensa in the 8MM
Table 70: Average Cost of Therapy of Avastin
Table 71: Average Cost of Therapy of Cyramza
Table 72: Average Cost of Therapy of Gilotrif
Table 73: Average Cost of Therapy of Iressa
Table 74: Average Cost of Therapy of Portrazza
Table 75: Average Cost of Therapy of Tagrisso
Table 76: Average Cost of Therapy of Tarceva
Table 77: Average Cost of Therapy of Vargatef
Table 78: Average Cost of Therapy of Xalkori
Table 79: Average Cost of Therapy of Zykadia
Table 80: Average Cost of Therapy of Keytruda
Table 81: Average Cost of Therapy of Opdivo
Table 82: Average Cost of Therapy of Tecentriq
Table 83: Average Cost of Therapy of Conmana
Table 84: High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed by Country
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Overview of Targets of Antidepressant Action on Noradrenergic and Serotonergic Neurons
Figure 2: Disease Management Model for Major Depressive Disorder
Figure 3: Major Depressive Disorder Treatment Algorithm
Figure 4: MDD Therapeutics - Phase II and III Clinical Trials in the 7MM, 2016
Figure 5: MDD Phase II/Phase III Pipeline, 2016
Figure 6: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in MDD, 2015-2025
Figure 7: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of ALKS-5461
Figure 8: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Vraylar
Figure 9: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of ASC-01
Figure 10: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of AXS-05
Figure 11: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Esketamine
Figure 12: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Rapastinel
Figure 13: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Strada
Figure 14: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Viotra
Figure 15: US Sales by Drug Class for MDD Therapies, 2015 and 2025
Figure 16: US Sales by Drug Class for MDD Therapies, 2015-2025

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