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EpiCast Report: Seasonal Influenza - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

EpiCast Report: Seasonal Influenza - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses resulting in mild to severe influenza-like illness. Seasonal influenza affects persons of all ages. Each year, between 5% and 15% of the world’s population is affected by seasonal influenza (WHO, 2013). Complications of influenza include pneumonia, bronchitis, ear infections, sinus infections, and worsening of chronic medical conditions such as congestive heart failure, asthma, or diabetes. Vaccination has been shown to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality and high economic burden associated with influenza illness.

GlobalData epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies and government-collated surveillance data to build the influenza forecast, and utilized appropriate proxy data where applicable. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. Lastly, uniform diagnostic criteria are utilized for all segmentations across the 7MM using ICD-10 codes J09-J10, and seasonal versus calendar year influenza cases were reconciled, for example, by applying rates from the 2007-2008 influenza season to the 2007 calendar year population.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the seasonal influenza vaccination coverage will increase from 323,457,073 people in 2015 to 344,202,999 people in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.64%. The US will have the largest population vaccinated for seasonal influenza among the 7MM throughout the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest. In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed outpatient ILI incident cases will increase from 38,432,598 cases in 2015 to 38,686,403 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.07%. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the influenza cases averted by seasonal influenza vaccinations will increase from 1,801,663 cases in 2015 to 1,858,033 cases in 2025.

Scope

  • The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for seasonal influenza in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza segmented by age and sex in the 7MM. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. In addition, the report also includes the number of individuals who received the influenza vaccination in the 7MM. For all the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases are segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and =65 years) and sex.
  • The seasonal influenza epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
Reasons to buy

The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast report will allow you to -
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global seasonal influenza market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global seasonal influenza market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for seasonal influenza therapeutics in each of the markets covered.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Epidemiology
2.1 Disease Background
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
2.3 Global Trends
2.3.1 Historical Perspective of Vaccination Coverage
2.3.2 Laboratory Confirmed Influenza Cases
2.3.3 Hospitalization Due to Influenza
2.3.4 Influenza Averted Cases
2.4 Forecast Methodology
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
2.4.3 Sources Not Used
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2015-2025)
2.5.1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination
2.5.2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates
2.5.3 Diagnosed Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Incident Cases
2.5.4 Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza
2.5.5 Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases
2.5.6 Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations
2.6 Discussion
2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis
2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis
3 Appendix
3.1 Bibliography
3.2 About the Authors
3.2.1 Epidemiologists
3.2.2 Reviewers
3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
3.3 About GlobalData
3.4 About EpiCast
3.5 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza
Table 2: 7MM, Historical Perspective of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage
Table 3: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Total Population Vaccination Rates of Seasonal Influenza
Table 4: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of Outpatient Seasonal ILI
Table 5: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Laboratory Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza
Table 6: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Seasonal Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases
Table 7: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Averted Cases of Seasonal Influenza
Table 8: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of Seasonal Influenza
Table 9: 7MM, People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015
Table 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015
Table 12: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 13: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015
Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 15: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015
Table 16: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015
Table 17: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 18: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015
Table 19: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015
Table 20: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 21: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015
Table 22: 7MM, Influenza Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015
Table 23: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Table 24: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 7MM, Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015-2025
Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N, 2015
Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N, 2015
Figure 4: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015-2025
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015
Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Figure 7: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015
Figure 8: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015
Figure 9: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incidence, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2015
Figure 10: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N, 2015
Figure 12: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N, 2015
Figure 13: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015
Figure 15: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015
Figure 16: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025
Figure 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N, 2015

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