EpiCast Report: Migraine - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026
Migraine is typically characterized by recurring headaches and throbbing pain on one side of the head accompanied by nausea, vomiting, or increased sensitivity to light or smell (Bigal and Lipton, 2006). While most migraineurs experience episodic migraines (EM), a small percentage suffers from chronic migraine (CM). Migraines are also classified into migraine with aura (MWA), in which the migraine is accompanied by other sensory symptoms, and migraine without aura (MOA).
In 2016, there were 73,914,635 total prevalent cases of migraine in adults ages 18 years and older in the 7MM. The US had the most cases, with 30,233,942, making up 40.90% of cases in the 7MM. Italy had the second most cases, with 12,231,868 cases, or 16.55% of cases in the 7MM. Spain had the fewest cases, with 2,199,892 cases (2.98% of cases in the 7MM). Italy also had the highest prevalence of migraine, with 23.63% of adult’s ages 18 years and older experiencing migraine in 2016. Spain had the lowest prevalence, at 5.54%.
In the 7MM, the number of total prevalent cases of migraine is expected to grow to 74,543,569 by 2026, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.09%. The US, France, Spain, and the UK are expected to see small increases in the number of total prevalent migraine cases, while Germany, Italy, and Japan are expected to see small decreases. The largest changes are expected in the US (AGR 0.60%) and Japan (AGR negative 0.87%). Since age- and sex-specific prevalence was held constant throughout the forecast period, all changes in the total prevalent cases of migraine are the result of demographic changes.
Our epidemiologists estimate that 1.61% of total migraine cases in the 7MM in 2016 were CM, corresponding to 1,189,614 cases. Due to the lack of country-specific sources, this percentage was applied to all markets.
The report EpiCast Report: Migraine - Epidemiology Forecast to 2026 provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for migraine in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases (diagnosed and undiagnosed) of migraine segmented by sex and age (for ages 18 years and older) in these markets. This forecast is further segmented by migraine frequency into EM and CM.
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