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Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2021 - Emergence of Immunotherapies Drives Market Growth and Creates A Competitive Second-Line

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2021 - Emergence of Immunotherapies Drives Market Growth and Creates A Competitive Second-Line

Summary


Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) is the second most common cancer globally, and the most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Such a poor outlook, particularly for patients with advanced disease, has created a pressing need for improved therapeutic options. The NSCLC market is undergoing a gradual change from a focus on generic chemotherapy regimens to complex treatment landscape based on different NSCLC subtypes and the presence of various molecular aberrations. In the current market, patients with non-squamous histology can be treated with more efficacious therapies such as Alimta (pemetrexed), while patients harboring activating mutations in EGFR or ALK can be prescribed targeted therapy. While the NSCLC developmental pipeline must aim to improve the outlook for all patients, there is currently a lack of options for patients with squamous cell histology or other detectable molecular characteristics besides EFGR and ALK mutations.

Scope

The NSCLC market will be valued at $10.9 billion in 2021, growing from $6.1 billion in 2014 at a CAGR of 8.5% -

  • How will immunotherapies such as Keytruda affect growth?
  • What effect will patent expirations of Tarceva and Alimta have on market value?
The NSCLC pipeline is large and diverse, with an increased presence of mAbs and specific targeted therapies in contrast to the market -
  • What are the common targets and mechanisms of action of pipeline therapies?
  • Will the pipeline address unmet needs such as a lack of treatments for squamous cell patients?
  • What implications will the increased focus on targeted therapies have on the future of NSCLC treatment?
Numerous late-stage pipeline therapies with a strong clinical record have the potential to enter the market over the forecast period -
  • How have promising late-stage therapies performed in clinical trials?
  • How would the approval of Rociletinib affect the competitive landscape?
  • What is the individual commercial forecast for each therapy?
The market forecasts indicate that the US contributes the most to global market value due to a large treatment population and the high price of premium therapies.
  • How will ACoT and market size vary between the eight major markets?
  • How could a change in risk factors such as population age or smoking habits influence the market?
Licensing deals are the most common form of strategic alliance in NSCLC, with total deal values ranging from under $10m to over $1 billion.
  • How do deal frequency and value compare between target families and molecule types?
  • What were the terms and conditions of key licensing deals?
Reasons to buy

This report will allow you to -
  • Understand the current clinical and commercial landscape by considering disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, prognosis, and the treatment options available at each stage of diagnosis, including a clinical comparison of marketed therapies.
  • Visualize the composition of the NSCLC market in terms of dominant therapies for each patient subset along with their clinical and commercial standing. Unmet needs in the current market are highlighted to allow a competitive understanding of gaps in the current market.
  • Analyze the NSCLC pipeline and stratify pipeline therapies by stage of development, molecule type and molecular target.
  • Understand the potential of late-stage therapies with extensive profiles of products that could enter the market over the forecast, highlighting clinical performance, potential commercial positioning, and how they will compete with other therapies.
  • Predict NSCLC market growth in eight major markets with epidemiological and ACoT forecasts across the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, as well as individual drug contributions to market growth.
  • Identify commercial opportunities in the NSCLC deals landscape by analyzing trends in licensing and co-development deals.


Global Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treatment Market Value to Approach $11 Billion by 2021, says GBI Research

The global market value for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) treatment will rise from $6.9 billion in 2014 to $10.9 billion by 2021, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5%, says business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company’s latest report* states that this increase will occur across the eight major markets of the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan, driven primarily by the introduction of novel immune-checkpoint inhibitors, such as Opdivo and Keytruda, during the forecast period.

These new therapies will capture a significant share of the second-line treatment space. As well as strong clinical performances commanding premium pricing, they are expected to increase the degree of segmentation in the NSCLC therapeutics market and add further complexity to the treatment algorithm.

Joshua Libberton, Senior Analyst for GBI Research, says: “The majority of new drugs will target the second-line treatment of NSCLC in both squamous and non-squamous patient subsets, leading to a crowded treatment algorithm for these patient populations.

“Ultimately, due to their strong clinical performances, immunotherapies will have a greater uptake than other second-line market entrants, such as Custirsen and Rociletinib.”

The analyst adds that the NSCLC therapeutics market will also see the launches of two first-line treatments for squamous cell patients during the forecast period, namely Necitumumab, which is due to launch in early 2016, and Yervoy (ipilimumab) in 2017.

Libberton continues: “The squamous patient subset is currently very limited in terms of first-line treatment options, meaning these new drugs will be important for driving market growth and improving patient outlook.

“While generic chemotherapies will remain an integral aspect of NSCLC treatment, with platinum-based regimens being crucial in the first-line setting for all patients and docetaxel being a key therapy for second-line patients, their market share will slowly decline by 2021 as new premium, targeted therapies enter the arena.”

*Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2021 - Emergence of Immunotherapies Drives Market Growth and Creates A Competitive Second-Line

This report provides analysis on the non-small cell lung cancer therapeutics market across the eight major markets of the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan, from 2014 and forecast to 2021.

This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 Disease Introduction
2.2 Epidemiology
2.3 Etiology and Pathophysiology
2.3.1 Adenocarcinoma
2.3.2 Squamous Cell Carcinoma
2.3.3 Large Cell Carcinoma
2.3.4 Immunotherapy
2.4 Symptoms
2.5 Diagnosis
2.6 Prognosis
2.7 Treatment
2.7.1 Treatment Algorithm
2.7.2 First-Line Treatment
2.7.3 Maintenance Therapy
2.7.4 Second-Line Treatment
2.7.5 Third-Line Therapy
2.7.6 Adjuvant Therapy
2.8 Marketed Product Heatmaps
3 Marketed Products
3.1 Overview
3.2 Chemotherapies
3.3 Alimta - Eli Lilly
3.4 Abraxane - Celgene Corporation
3.5 Tarceva - Roche
3.6 Iressa - AstraZeneca
3.7 Gilotrif - Boehringer Ingelheim
3.8 Xalkori - Pfizer
3.9 Avastin - Roche
3.10 Cyramza - Eli Lilly
3.11 Opdivo - Bristol-Myers Squibb
3.12 Zykadia - Novartis
3.13 Alectinib - Roche
3.14 Conclusion
4 NSCLC Pipeline
4.1 Overview
4.2 Mechanisms of Action and Targets in the Pipeline
4.3 Clinical Trials
4.3.1 Failure rate
4.3.2 Clinical Trial Duration
4.3.3 Clinical Trial Size
4.3.4 Clinical Trial Summary
4.4 Late-Stage Pipeline Product Profiles
4.4.1 Ganetespib - Synta Pharmaceuticals
4.4.2 Yervoy - Bristol-Myers Squibb
4.4.3 Custirsen - Oncogenex Pharmaceuticals
4.4.4 Atezolizumab - Roche
4.4.5 Necitumumab - Eli Lilly
4.4.6 Patritumab - Daiichi Sankyo
4.4.7 Selumetinib - AstraZeneca
4.4.8 Rociletinib - Clovis Oncology
4.4.9 AZD-9291 - AstraZeneca
4.4.10 Vaxira - Recombio
4.4.11 Keytruda - Merck
4.4.12 TG4010 - Transgene
4.4.13 Veliparib - AbbVie
4.4.14 Abemaciclib - Eli Lilly
4.4.15 Bavituximab - Peregrine Pharmaceuticals
4.5 Pipeline Heatmaps and Product Competitiveness
4.5.1 Product Competitiveness Framework
4.6 Pipeline Conclusion
5 Market Forecast
5.1 Geographical Markets
5.1.1 Global Markets
5.1.2 North America
5.1.3 Top Five EU Countries
5.1.4 Japan
5.2 Drivers and Barriers
5.2.1 Drivers
5.2.2 Barriers
6 Strategic Consolidations
6.1 Major Licensing Deals
6.1.1 Boehringer Ingelheim Enters into Licensing Agreement with CureVac for CV9202
6.1.2 Novartis Enters into Licensing Agreement with Antisoma
6.1.3 Ariad Pharma Enters into a Collaboration Agreement with Merck
6.1.4 Astellas Pharma Enters into Licensing Agreement with AVEO Pharma for Tivozanib
6.2 Major Co-Development Deals
6.2.1 Pfizer Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Merck
6.2.2 Merck Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Endocyte
6.2.3 GlobeImmune Enters into Agreement with Celgene
6.2.4 Amgen Enters into Co-Development Agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical
7 Appendix
7.1 References
7.2 Abbreviations
7.3 Research Methodology
7.3.1 Secondary Research
7.3.2 Marketed Product Profiles
7.3.3 Late-Stage Pipeline Candidates
7.3.4 Comparative Efficacy and Safety Heat Map for Marketed and Pipeline Products
7.3.5 Product Competitiveness Framework
7.3.6 Pipeline Analysis
7.3.7 Forecasting Model
7.3.8 Deals Data Analysis
7.4 Expert Panel Validation
7.5 Contact Us
7.6 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: NSCLC, Tumor Node Metastasis Classification, 2015
Table 2: NSCLC, Eastern Co-operative Oncology Group Criteria, 2015
Table 3: NSCLC, Treatment Options, 2015
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: NSCLC, Global, Molecular Characteristic Frequency (%)
Figure 2: NSCLC, Market Heatmap, First-Line Products
Figure 3: NSCLC, Market Heatmap, Maintenance Products
Figure 4: NSCLC, Market Heatmap, Second-Line Products
Figure 5: NSCLC, Pipeline Overview
Figure 6: NSCLC, Pipeline Molecular Targets
Figure 7: NSCLC, Pipeline by Molecular Target and Stage of Development
Figure 8: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates
Figure 9: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Molecule Type
Figure 10: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Attrition Rates by Molecular Target
Figure 11: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Duration by Molecule Type
Figure 12: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Duration by Molecular Target
Figure 13: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Size Per Product by Molecule Type
Figure 14: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Size Per Product Molecular Target
Figure 15: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Size Per Individual Trial by Molecule Type
Figure 16: NSCLC, Clinical Trial Size Per Individual Trial by Molecular Target
Figure 17: NSCLC, Comparison of Average Trial Metrics by Phase and Molecule Type
Figure 18: NSCLC, Comparison of Average Trial Metrics by Phase and Molecular Target
Figure 19: NSCLC, Ganetespib Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017-2021
Figure 20: NSCLC, Yervoy Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017-2021
Figure 21: NSCLC, Custirsen Revenue Forecast ($m), 2018-2021
Figure 22: NSCLC, Atezolizumab Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017-2021
Figure 23: NSCLC, Necitumumab Revenue Forecast ($m), 2016-2021
Figure 24: NSCLC, Patritumab Revenue Forecast ($m), 2020-2021
Figure 25: NSCLC, Selumetinib Revenue Forecast ($m), 2019-2021
Figure 26: NSCLC, Rociletinib Revenue Forecast ($m), 2017-2021
Figure 27: NSCLC, AZD-9291 Revenue Forecast ($m), 2016-2021
Figure 28: NSCLC, Vaxira Revenue Forecast ($m), 2018-2021
Figure 29: NSCLC, Keytruda Revenue Forecast ($m), 2016-2021
Figure 30: NSCLC, TG4010 Revenue Forecast ($m), 2020-2021
Figure 31: NSCLC, Veliparib Revenue Forecast ($m), 2019-2021
Figure 32: NSCLC, Abemaciclib Revenue Forecast ($m), 2018-2021
Figure 33: NSCLC, Bavituximab Revenue Forecast ($m), 2019-2021
Figure 34: NSCLC, Pipeline Heatmap, First-Line Products
Figure 35: NSCLC, Pipeline Heatmap, Second-Line Products
Figure 36: NSCLC, Marketed and Pipeline Product Competitiveness Framework
Figure 37: NSCLC, Global Treatment Patterns, 2014-2021
Figure 38: NSCLC, Global Market Size ($bn), 2014-2021
Figure 39: NSCLC, North America Treatment Usage Patterns, 2014-2021
Figure 40: NSCLC, North America, Annual Cost of Therapy, 2014-2021
Figure 41: NSCLC, North America, Market Size, 2014-2021
Figure 42: NSCLC, Top Five EU Countries, Treatment Usage Patterns, 2014-2021
Figure 43: NSCLC, Top Five EU Countries, Annual Cost of Therapy, 2014-2021
Figure 44: NSCLC, Top Five EU Countries, Market Size, 2014-2021
Figure 45: NSCLC, Japan, Treatment Usage Patterns, 2014-2021
Figure 46: NSCLC, Japan, Annual Cost of Therapy, 2014-2021
Figure 47: NSCLC, Japan, Market Size, 2014-2021
Figure 48: NSCLC, Licensing Deals by Territory, 2006-2015
Figure 49: NSCLC, Licensing Deals Overview, 2006-2015
Figure 50: NSCLC, Licensing Deals by Molecule Type, 2006-2015
Figure 51: NSCLC, Licensing Deals by Molecular Target, 2006-2015
Figure 52: NSCLC, Co-Development Deals by Territory, 2006-2015
Figure 53: NSCLC, Co-Development Deals Overview, 2006-2015
Figure 54: NSCLC Co-Development by Molecule Type, 2006-2015
Figure 55: NSCLC, Co-Development by Molecular Target, 2006-2015

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