Sizing the Cuban Opportunity

Sizing the Cuban Opportunity


Improving relations between the United States and Cuba, coupled with the Cuban government’s persistent efforts to implement economic reform have led to an increase in attention toward the island economy. However, understanding the validity of Cuban statistics and anticipating the future trajectory of the economy are particularly challenging.

To help guide multinationals through these challenges, FSG has analyzed the distortions of current Cuban statistics and modeled the economic impact over the next decade of significant external and internal dynamics that will radically transform Cuba’s economy and business opportunities.

What you will learn

  • What is particularly misleading about officially reported data in Cuba
  • Which economic growth factors should companies tap into to increase their likelihood of success
  • Understand the baseline, downside, and upside scenarios that businesses need to prepare for

Executive Summary
Section 1: Making the Case for Rightsizing the Cuban Opportunity
  MNC Interest in Cuba is Growing Quickly
  Sizing the Opportunity is Challenging
  Economic Reforms are Gaining Ground
  Rightsizing the Cuban Opportunity is Key
Section 2: Understanding Misleading Official Data
  Why Cuban Statistics are Problematic
  Overvalued Medical and Social Services
  Poorly Measured Productivity Levels
  Undervalued Informal Economy
  Income Reporting Effects
  Undervalued Exports and Remittances
Section 3: Assessing the Current Market Opportunity
  How to Evaluate Cuban Statistics: Business-to-Consumer (B2C)
  How to Evaluate Cuban Statistics: Business-to-Business (B2B)
  How to Evaluate Cuban Statistics: Business-to-Government (B2G)
Section 4: Gauging Cuba's Growth Potential
  Cuba's Necessary Transformation
  Economic Fundamentals Need Change
  Assessing the Future Market Opportunity
  Growth Factor #1: Lifting of the Embargo24-
  Growth Factor #2: Foreign Exchange Normalization27-
  Growth Factor #3: Investment Growth30-
  Growth Factor #4: Government Austerity33-
  Growth Factor #5: Consumption Growth36-
  Growth Factor #6: Venezuela Import Shock39-
Section 5: Economic Outlook & Scenarios
  Scenarios for Cuba
  Baseline: Persistent Progress
  Downside: Prioritizing Stabilization
  Upside: Accelerating Liberalization
Section 6: Next Steps for Businesses
  Assess Market Potential for Your Company
  Understand Cuba's Operating Environment
About Frontier Strategy Group

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