Global Leadership Briefing 2020

Global Leadership Briefing 2020

Overview

After a weak 2019 for most regions, driven in large part by weak Chinese import demand, 2020 was expected to be a recovery year for the global economy. But the coronavirus outbreak has already led to a significant downward revision to our China growth forecasts for 2020, from 5.9% to 5.4% and that is assuming China is able to control the outbreak. The slowdown in China in 2020 imperils the global economy in 2020, though the impact will be felt differently across regions. For major commodity exports of oil and cyclical metals, weaker Chinese demand will lead to some combination of higher inventories, production cuts, and lower prices. For exporters of manufactured goods into China or in related supply chains—mainly an issue in APAC, Western Europe, and CEE weaker exports will lead to ongoing price pressures and continued weakness in industrial production due to a slower-than-expected rate of inventory depletion. Firms need to adjust 2020 plans for the slowdown in China and the ripple effects across the global economy, and prepare contingency plans should the coronavirus outbreak prove difficult to control.

What you will learn

  • 2020 global macroeconomic forecasts
  • Global events to watch to manage risks and opportunities
  • Actions for multinationals to take to win globally


Executive Summary
Overview of This Report
2020 Forecasts: Global Macroeconomic Outlook
  Global Macroeconomic Outlook
  Global Macro Drivers
  FX Outlook: Risk Perception is Harming EM Currencies
  Major Forecast Revisions
Pulse of the Market: On-The-Ground Executive Insights
  North America
  Latin America
  Asia Pacific
  Western Europe
  Central and Eastern Europe
  Middle East and North Africa
  Sub-Saharan Africa
Events to Watch: Risk and Opportunity Scenario Tracking
  2020 Events to Watch: Updates Since Publication
Special Topic: Chinese Import Demand After Phase 1 and Coronavirus
  Expect Major Changes to Chinese Import Demand in 2020
  Phase 1 Deal Temporarily Alleviates US-China Tensions
  US Exports From China to Increase After Phase 1 Deal
  To Increase US Imports, China Will Import Less Elsewhere
  Evaluating Coronavirus' Impact on China's GDP
  Impact on China From Coronavirus: Scenarios Overview
  Weaker Chinese Growth Weakens Global Trade Outlook
  Assessing the Impact of the Twin China Shocks in 2020
  Assessing the Impact by Category of Trade Goods
Actions to Take: Q4 Agenda for Multinationals
  Q1 International Action Items for Headquarters
  Scenario Analysis Makes Sense of Many Risks
  Next Steps for You and Your Teams
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