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2016 CIS Outlook

2016 CIS Outlook

Overview

Low oil prices – forecasted to average US$ 30–35/bbl in 2016 – will weigh on growth across the CIS region.

The major energy exporters will struggle because of their over-reliance on energy revenues to support growth. Non-commodity exporters will prove more resilient; however, their growth potential will be undermined by spillover from Russia’s recession, particularly in the form of falling remittances.

As a rebound in growth is unlikely in the near future, multinational companies (MNCs) should focus on customer segmentation and product portfolio adjustments to respond to changing customer purchasing power and preferences. MNCs also need to develop scenarios should one of several key regional risks, particularly a financial crisis in China or a prolonged further decline in oil prices, materialize.

What you will learn

  • What are the main drivers shaping the outlook for the Commonwealth of Independent States
  • How will the country-level outlooks for CIS markets like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan evolve
  • Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region


Executive Summary
Section 1: 2016 CIS Outlook & Main Drivers
  FSG View on CIS Markets
  The Region Within EMEA Context
  Wide Divergences Exist in the Region
  Driver #1: Commodity Exports
  Driver #2: Russia's Recession
  Driver #3: China's Influence
  Driver #4: Public Spending Cuts
  Driver #5: Currency Volatility
  Driver #6: Political Instability
  Recommendations for Action
Section 2: Country Outlooks
  Ukraine Outlook
  Belarus Outlook
  Moldova Outlook
  Kazakhstan Outlook
  Azerbaijan Outlook
  Armenia Outlook
  Georgia Outlook
  Turkmenistan Outlook
  Uzbekistan Outlook
  Kyrgyzstan Outlook
  Tajikistan Outlook
Section 3: Scenarios & Disruptors of Performance in 2016
  CIS in 2016: Scenarios Overview
  CIS in 2016: Disruptor Summary
  Disruptor #1: Succession Crises
  Disruptor #2: China Financial Market Crisis
  Disruptor #3: Ukraine Political Strife
  Disruptor #4: Oil Price Drop
  Disruptor #5: Destabilizing Economic Crises
About Frontier Strategy Group

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