Low oil prices – forecasted to average US$ 30–35/bbl in 2016 – will weigh on growth across the CIS region.
The major energy exporters will struggle because of their over-reliance on energy revenues to support growth. Non-commodity exporters will prove more resilient; however, their growth potential will be undermined by spillover from Russia’s recession, particularly in the form of falling remittances.
As a rebound in growth is unlikely in the near future, multinational companies (MNCs) should focus on customer segmentation and product portfolio adjustments to respond to changing customer purchasing power and preferences. MNCs also need to develop scenarios should one of several key regional risks, particularly a financial crisis in China or a prolonged further decline in oil prices, materialize.
What you will learn
What are the main drivers shaping the outlook for the Commonwealth of Independent States
How will the country-level outlooks for CIS markets like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan evolve
Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region