Norway Power Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Norway's already mature power sector will experience limited, but stable, growth throughoutour forecast period due to electricity generation far exceeding consumption. Any investment in new capacitywill focus on hydropower plants, which will crowd out thermal power and, to a lesser extent, wind power,due to lower level costs.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast total generation will grow from 135.7TWh in 2016 to 145.8TWh in 2025, on the back of newhydropower plants.
We have updated our hydropower forecasts to include the addition of two new hydropower plants comingonline between 2017 and 2019, namely the 80MW Rosten plant and the 370MW Lysebotn II plant(replacing the 210MW Lysebotn I plant).
We have revised our non-hydropower renewables forecasts downwards, as we do not currently projectany new capacity coming online within our forecast period. We forecast total electricity generated fromnon-hydropower renewable sources to grow by an average of 0.5% y-o-y throughout our forecast period,generating 3.2TWh in 2025.
A Norwegian competition regulator has ruled that Statnett should retain its monopoly on theconstruction and operation of international power links. This has reportedly been announced in order toprevent higher electricity prices.
The Norwegian Energy Minister has stated that Statnett will have to assess the added impact of theinterconnection links with Germany and the UK before constructing any new interconnection lines.
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