Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 3, 2012 - 85 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Agriculture SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Vietnam Dairy Outlook
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Butter Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Cheese Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Vietnam Butter Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Vietnam Cheese Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Consumption, 2007-2012
Vietnam Livestock Outlook
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Vietnam Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Vietnam Coffee Outlook
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Vietnam Grains Outlook
Table: Vietnam Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Vietnam Rice Outlook
Table: Vietnam Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Vietnam Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertilizer Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Carbonates , 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: MGR Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts , 2010-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI View: The agriculture industry (including forestry and aquaculture) contributes to more than 20%of Vietnam's GDP and employs almost half its population. Vietnam's coffee and rice sectors face thelargest risks in terms of losing competitive advantage as other Asian countries step up production. Webelieve Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on crop productivity in order to not be leftbehind, and if it will be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an exportspearhead.

Key Forecasts

Rice production growth to 2016: 12.8% to 29.7mn tonnes. Our bullish outlook for Vietnam'srice production is based on the country's high yields and the fact that its rice is very competitiverelative to many of its regional peers. It also is well positioned to benefit from both regional andglobal demand growth.

Coffee consumption growth to 2015/16: 66.0% to 2.2mn bags. Strong growth in domesticcoffee consumption will be driven by increases in GDP and population, and as spending on foodand drink items such as coffee increases. Urbanisation and the spread of Western-style coffeeshops are expected to add to this trend.

Milk production growth to 2015/16: 24.4% to 398,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattlenumbers and increased public and private sector investment – part of the effort to reduce thecountry's growing import dependency – will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisationwill also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milkproduction.

BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$21.3mn in 2012; growth to average 5.9%annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.

2012 real GDP growth: 5.3% (down from 5.9% in 2011; predicted to average 6.7% over 2011-2016).

2012 consumer price index: 8.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) (lower than 18.7% in 2011; predictedto average 7.9% over 2011-2016).

2012 central bank policy rate: 10.00% (lower than 15.00% in 2011; predicted to average9.30% over 2011-2016)

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