Oxford Economics

... Moneim Abol Fotouh, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood. But although the Islamist candidate might appear to be favoured by the results of the earlier parliamentary elections, the outcome of the first round is ...  |  more...

... resulted in disappointing export data at the beginning of this year. Domestic demand also remains subdued. Unemployment has risen significantly over the past year and, together with the uncertainty surrounding the fragile recovery, this has ...  |  more...

... have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.1%, with a pick-up to 3.8% seen for 2013. The external environment remains challenging, with goods exports in US$ terms shrinking by 4% year-on-year in ...  |  more...

... output, retail sales and exports all fell noticeably. And the latter weakened further in April, dampened by declining sales to the EU and sluggish demand from China. The still-fragile global background is likely to make ...  |  more...

... the floods that hit Fiji that year. Despite the acceleration in GDP growth, inflation fell to 0.9% in 2011, down from 2.8% in 2010. This decline was due to the effect of new taxes on ...  |  more...

... in the report were from the survey of households even though there was another tick down in the unemployment rate. But even with those discouraging notes, the improvement in the labor market to date is ...  |  more...

... and retail trade, while output in the oil sector fell 0.6%. With non-oil sector growth likely to ease due to the weaker global economy and oil output rising slowly, we still forecast GDP growth of ...  |  more...

... a year earlier. But survey indicators offer a more sanguine view; the PMI indices remain significantly more positive than six months ago (though the manufacturing index slipped below 50 in April) and consumer confidence is ...  |  more...

... the wide divergence between the GDP series and a whole range of other indicators, including the business surveys and official labour market data, and expect it to be revised upwards at a later date. This ...  |  more...

... Greece with little effective debt relief, as it needs to borrow to fund bank recapitalisation and provide collateral for the swap. Therefore, any medium-term reduction in its debt stock must come from several years of ...  |  more...

... are likely to prove tricky, particularly over the issue of central bank independence. Our baseline case is now for an agreement to be concluded in Q3 (previously June). The news triggered a significant rally in ...  |  more...

... will hold down 2012 GDP growth to about 1%, and higher import prices, which have pushed inflation back towards the EU average. Despite bringing its deficit below 3% of GDP in 2011 (and close to ...  |  more...

... 2012-13 as inflation fears and banks' funding constraints limit further reduction of interest rates and elections subdue investor confidence. Inflation slowed sharply in H2 2011 and actually went negative in Q1 this year, enabling interest ...  |  more...