Banking Market Research Reports & Industry Analysis

We have revised down our 2025 growth forecast to 8.2%, reflecting weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP data and continued fiscal strains in Senegal. However, we have raised our 2026 growth estimate to 5.6% underpinned by expectations of a new IMF programme by year-end and a more steady materialisation of gai ...

We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.2ppts to 1% to reflect a stronger-than-expected Q2 outturn. That said, we still think the impact of high US tariffs has yet to fully materialize, so we've downgraded our 2026 GDP outlook by 0.1ppt to 0.3% growth. ...

The global Fintech as a Service market will grow from USD 470.94 billion in 2025 to USD 906.14 billion by 2030 at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.0% during the forecast period. The global market is driven by the rapid rise of embedded finance, where banks, insurers, and NBFCs increasing ...

We've raised our forecast for 2026 GDP growth by 0.3ppts to 3.6% based on plans for a transport infrastructure upgrade, which will lift investment. We've also revised our 2025 forecast to 5.9% from 5.3% owing to activity markedly picking up pace in Q2. The Tengiz oil field extension coming o ...

We've raised our Serbian GDP forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 1.7%. The upward revision is mainly the result of better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures, but growth would still be below trend in 2025 due to political instability at home and heightened uncertainty abroad. Prospects are also slightly bri ...

The global open banking market size is expected to reach USD 447.20 billion by 2034, according to a new study by Polaris Market Research. The report “Open Banking Market Share, Size, Trends, Industry Analysis Report, By Financial services (Banking and capital markets, payments, digital currencies); ...

We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 0.1ppt to 4%. This minor revision reflects a slightly weaker oil production outlook, as Kuwait has adhered to OPEC+ guidelines by unwinding oil production cuts more gradually to offset previous overproduction. Nevertheless, we remain optim ...

We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.7ppts to just 0.5%, driven by the downside surprise in the Q1 data. However, a recovery started in Q2 and, in line with encouraging high-frequency data, we expect growth to gather momentum over the remainder of the year. At the same time, we ...

We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 0.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Despite a modest GDP uptick over Q2, growth momentum remains fragile. Weak foreign demand is the main factor weighing on the economy. Domestic demand is unlikely to provide solace despite the pre-electoral ...

We’ve raised our Costa Rica GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 3.5%, following a stronger-than-expected Q2, driven by exports of medical equipment goods. High-frequency data suggest export momentum will likely continue in Q3. For next year, we envisage 2.4% growth, as weaker services exports – due to ...

Amid increased pressure for a truce from Donald Trump's administration, Ukraine's authorities are preparing for another year of protracted war. Official forecasts have been revised downwards for 2025-2026, pointing to growth around 2% in 2025 and 2.3%-2.4% in 2026. We still see GDP growth at ...

Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia is unchanged at 4.3%. Following the relatively strong performance in H1, we expect momentum to ease as the newly announced 19% US headline tariff rate takes effect, which is higher than our previous baseline of 10%. Sector-specific tariffs, particularly on s ...

Zimbabwe’s economy demonstrated strong growth in Q1 2025, particularly in the manufacturing and services sectors. However, weaknesses in the mining sector dampened overall growth, despite the resilience of the gold industry. The narrative of high gold prices spurring output this year remains, and we ...

July told a more encouraging story for the economy, with stimulus measures already beginning to filter through into activity, and showing up clearly in the retail sales, construction, and industrial production data. Nonetheless, the forward path is still tenuous. ...

We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland at 3.4% and nudged up our projection for 2026 by 0.1ppt to 3.3%. The economy continued to grow solidly in Q2, when GDP advanced 0.8% q/q. In line with encouraging Q3 data, we expect growth to remain strong going forward, buoyed by a pick-up in i ...

We maintain our high-conviction calls for growth and inflation to undershoot consensus, while the current account surplus is likely to exceed expectations. ...

We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.2% this year and 1.3% next. Not only will tariffs lower Belgium's direct exports to the US by making them more expensive, but they will also affect demand for Belgian-produced inputs for other countries' US-bound exports. Moreover, trade uncer ...

We revised our growth forecast for Taiwan's 2025 GDP up to 4.6% y/y partially due to the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP. The seasonal orders ahead of the holiday season and the launch of new consumer electronic devices should help sustain Taiwan's export momentum in the coming months. We also ...

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines at 5.5%. While the agreed 19% US headline tariff rate has eased some uncertainty for businesses, a bigger risk comes from sector-specific tariffs on currently exempt products, particular semiconductors – these are yet to be announced. Howe ...

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Germany Summary Financial intermediation, real estate, and business activities contributed 25.8% to the gross value added (GVA) in 2024, followed by mining, manufacturing, and utilities activities (23.1%), and wholesale, retail, and hotels activities (12.0%). In nominal ...

We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.2ppts to 2.6% y/y after Q2 GDP growth came below the figure implied by monthly activity figures and consumer spending was flat despite strong retail sales growth. However, we view this as a temporary disappointment and have raised our 20 ...

The importance of the agricultural sector to the Moroccan economy was once again in evidence over the first half of the year, as some sorely needed late winter rains improved the cereal harvest, with positive effects on consumer demand. A big infrastructure push also helped. GDP in H1 2025 was 4.7% ...

We maintain our GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong at 2.7% for 2025, in line with the government's 2%-3% growth estimates. ...

We forecast Czech GDP will grow 2.1% in 2025. Growth in Q2 slightly disappointed at 0.2% q/q, with tariff frontloading mostly reversing. Consumer spending remains the main growth engine, although resilient domestic demand is also translating into higher imports. The drag from US tariffs and a weaker ...

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Luxembourg Summary Financial intermediation, real estate, and business activities contributed 49.0% to the gross value added (GVA) in 2024, followed by wholesale, retail, and hotel activities (9.7%) and transport, storage, and communication (9.0%). In nominal terms, the ...