Banking Market Research Reports & Industry Analysis

We’ve lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Cambodia to 4.1% from 4.3%, reflecting the impacts of the ongoing Iran war on energy supplies. Growth faces significant downside risks should the energy crunch extends beyond the expected few months. ...

We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 0.3ppts to 1.4% due to the expected hit to the economy from higher energy prices. Although pre-electoral fiscal support and fuel price caps will mitigate the drag in the near term, the burden will simply be shifted to H2 2026 and 2027. Partly bec ...

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Iran Summary Mining, manufacturing, and utilities contributed 35.8% to GDP in 2025, followed by wholesale, retail trade, and hotels (11.0%) and transport, storage, and communications (7.7%). In nominal terms, the three subsectors are forecast to grow by 43.9%, 42.3%, an ...

The US-Israel war with Iran has introduced uncertainty around Sri Lanka's inflation and energy supply, and disrupted its remittances from the Middle East. We've modestly lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.8% y/y. We've also raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1% y/y ...

We've downgraded our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Thailand by 0.3ppts to 1.5%, reflecting the impact of the US/Israel-Iran war on energy supplies. Growth faces significant downside risks if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond the expected few months of disruption. ...

We have downgraded our 2026 Czech GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.1% due to the negative impacts of the US-Israel-Iran war. The Czech economy is exposed to the energy shock as it is highly manufacturing-oriented and energy-intensive. However, the shock is hitting into a relatively benign environ ...

We've lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. This reflects in part a downgrade to our private consumption growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 2.2%, given the squeeze on purchasing power amid higher consumer prices. ...

The ongoing Middle East conflict, which has triggered significant volatility in energy prices, has prompted us to raise our 2026 inflation forecast for Taiwan by 0.4ppts to 2.1% y/y to reflect the external energy price shock. We've also slightly lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.57% y/y ...

We have downgraded our 2026 Czech GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.1% due to the negative impacts of the US-Israel-Iran war. The Czech economy is exposed to the energy shock as it is highly manufacturing-oriented and energy-intensive. However, the shock is hitting into a relatively benign environ ...

We cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. The revision stems partly from the cold spell at the start of the year which hit construction and, thus, Q1 GDP growth. But more importantly, the surge in energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East will weigh on activity t ...

We've lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. This reflects in part a downgrade to our private consumption growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 2.2%, given the squeeze on purchasing power amid higher consumer prices. ...

The ongoing Middle East conflict, which has triggered significant volatility in energy prices, has prompted us to raise our 2026 inflation forecast for Taiwan by 0.4ppts to 2.1% y/y to reflect the external energy price shock. We've also slightly lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.57% y/y ...

We cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. The revision stems partly from the cold spell at the start of the year which hit construction and, thus, Q1 GDP growth. But more importantly, the surge in energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East will weigh on activity t ...

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.4ppts to 0.3% due to the conflict in the Middle East. Terms-of-trade shocks from high oil and gas prices will negatively affect both households and corporates in the near term. ...

The war will significantly affect Maltese growth: we estimate a 0.3ppts negative hit in 2026, mainly due to higher prices. That said, we still forecast Malta will be the fastest-growing economy in the Eurozone this year and next. ...

Leading survey indicators of household and corporate sentiment fell sharply this week, providing the first glimpses of how the conflict in the Middle East is hitting the UK economy. The flash S&P Global survey suggested that activity growth slowed sharply this month, amid weaker demand and risin ...

The economic calendar will feature key data on the labor market and the consumer next week. There will be a temptation to connect the dots between the vagaries of the incoming data and the Iran war. However, it's still too soon to discern the war's impact in the official statistics. ...

We've raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Cyprus by 0.2ppts to 2.7%, with economic momentum at the end of last year exceeding our expectations. However, the US-Israel war with Iran is taking a toll: our estimates suggest a 0.4ppts negative impact on growth this year. ...

Eswatini’s latest budget points to a sharp increase in public investment, which is likely to significantly widen fiscal deficits. Record shortfalls are expected over the next two years, driven by higher capital spending on major infrastructure projects, including a large water transfer scheme, road ...

The war will significantly affect Maltese growth: we estimate a 0.3ppts negative hit in 2026, mainly due to higher prices. That said, we still forecast Malta will be the fastest-growing economy in the Eurozone this year and next. ...

We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan by 0.1ppt to 6.2% due to carryover from Q4. Still, we expect growth will slow to 5.1% in 2027. In 2025, the economy expanded by 7.7%, propelled by rapidly growing fixed investment and soaring worker remittances. Commodity shocks stemming fro ...

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.4ppts to 0.3% due to the conflict in the Middle East. Terms-of-trade shocks from high oil and gas prices will negatively affect both households and corporates in the near term. ...

We plan downward 2026 GDP growth revisions to 13 of the 24 African countries we cover and expect to raise our inflation forecasts for 19 of them in our quarterly forecasters' note. ...

Leading survey indicators of household and corporate sentiment fell sharply this week, providing the first glimpses of how the conflict in the Middle East is hitting the UK economy. The flash S&P Global survey suggested that activity growth slowed sharply this month, amid weaker demand and risin ...

We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan by 0.1ppt to 6.2% due to carryover from Q4. Still, we expect growth will slow to 5.1% in 2027. In 2025, the economy expanded by 7.7%, propelled by rapidly growing fixed investment and soaring worker remittances. Commodity shocks stemming fro ...