South America Banking

We lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Chile by 0.2ppts to 2.1% because the Middle East conflict will slightly dent consumption in Q2 through higher inflation while weighing on external demand. However, we maintain our view that, although moderating, domestic demand will remain robust. Moreover ...

We lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Chile by 0.2ppts to 2.1% because the Middle East conflict will slightly dent consumption in Q2 through higher inflation while weighing on external demand. However, we maintain our view that, although moderating, domestic demand will remain robust. Moreover ...

The US/Israel-Iran conflict sparked a massive jump in international oil prices in March, forcing us to raise our year-end consumer inflation forecast by 0.4ppts to 4.2% y/y. Our commodity price forecast for the Brent oil price is at US$113 per barrel in Q2. The higher oil price will induce broad-bas ...

The US/Israel-Iran conflict sparked a massive jump in international oil prices in March, forcing us to raise our year-end consumer inflation forecast by 0.4ppts to 4.2% y/y. Our commodity price forecast for the Brent oil price is at US$113 per barrel in Q2. The higher oil price will induce broad-bas ...

Our 2026 GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.7%, but we've revised our quarterly growth profile in light of the natural gas pipeline rupture in March, which has disrupted economic activity, and adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño. We've halved our Q1 growth forecas ...

Our 2026 GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.7%, but we've revised our quarterly growth profile in light of the natural gas pipeline rupture in March, which has disrupted economic activity, and adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño. We've halved our Q1 growth forecas ...

We have lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.3ppts to 3.2% y/y to reflect consistent weakness in monthly growth prints below our estimates since late 2025. Still, we remain 0.5ppts above the consensus as we believe a wide fiscal deficit and the 23% minimum wage rise will support do ...

We've raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ecuador by 0.4ppts to 2.2% y/y and continue to project a 2.2% y/y expansion in 2027. Private consumption is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the economy, and we expect this trend will persist in the coming years. Key drivers include lower inte ...

We've raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ecuador by 0.4ppts to 2.2% y/y and continue to project a 2.2% y/y expansion in 2027. Private consumption is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the economy, and we expect this trend will persist in the coming years. Key drivers include lower inte ...

We have lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.3ppts to 3.2% y/y to reflect consistent weakness in monthly growth prints below our estimates since late 2025. Still, we remain 0.5ppts above the consensus as we believe a wide fiscal deficit and the 23% minimum wage rise will support do ...

We've revised our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina from 2.6% to 2.7% in 2026 and from 2.4% to 2.3% in 2027. Although inflation is likely to fall this year, we expect the decline to be gradual, with the disinflation process taking longer than markets anticipate. At the same time, the government ...

We've revised our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina from 2.6% to 2.7% in 2026 and from 2.4% to 2.3% in 2027. Although inflation is likely to fall this year, we expect the decline to be gradual, with the disinflation process taking longer than markets anticipate. At the same time, the government ...

Uruguay In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Uruguay provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Urug ...

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Peru Summary Mining, manufacturing, and utilities accounted for 28.6% of the country’s gross value added (GVA) in 2025, followed by wholesale, retail, and hotels (16.5%) and construction (8.0%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 4.3%, 4.8%, and ...

We have upgraded our outlook for the Venezuelan economy, increasing our 2026 GDP growth forecast 4.1ppts to 8.3% y/y. This will be driven by moderate improvements in external investment and oil output over the next two years, which should reach 1.5mn barrels per day (bpd) at end-2027. This means our ...

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth outlook for Uruguay by 0.2ppts to 1.9%, after a 2.1% expansion this year. Monthly indicators point to a slowdown heading into next year, which will compound the impact of an expected weaker external sector. After goods exports reached record highs this year, we expe ...

PPI Euromonitor International's Industrial reports provide a 360 degree view of an industry. The Industrial market report offers a comprehensive guide to the size and shape of the Monetary Intermediation: ISIC 651 market at a national level. It provides the latest retail sales data, allowing you to ...

Brazil In-depth PESTLE Insights Summary This PESTLE country analysis report on Brazil provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Br ...

Bolivia In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Bolivia provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Boli ...

We've revised down our 2025-2026 projections for Bolivia and now expect a recession due to the ongoing dollar shortage, which is paralyzing the productive industries and generating inflationary pressure. Domestic demand remains weak and private consumption feeble. We forecast GDP will contract b ...

Paraguay In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Paraguay provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Pa ...

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Colombia Summary Mining, manufacturing, and utilities contributed 22.8% to gross value added (GVA) in 2024, followed by wholesale, retail, and hotels (15.8%), and agriculture (9.6%). In nominal terms, these three segments are forecast to grow by 6.7%, 7.7%, and 6.5%, re ...

We have lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.2ppts to 3.0% y/y to reflect the stronger import growth we project next year as consumer strength will worsen the current account balance. Strong domestic demand will be driven by the government failure to cut the fiscal deficit before n ...

We slightly cut our GDP growth forecast down by 0.1ppt to 4.4% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We expect private demand to soften in the coming months, reflecting a sharp slowdown in real wage growth, rising real interest rates, and uncertainty over 2026 economic policy. As domestic demand a ...

For 2025, we've kept our Chilean GDP growth forecast at 2.4%, with the latest central bank projections increasingly converging toward our view. A rebound in investment has stimulated domestic demand, offsetting the drag from net exports. Accordingly, we expect solid growth in Q3 but some deceler ...