Caribbean Banking

We revised our short-term GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in 2025 due to lower growth expectations in the US post-liberation day tariffs. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains positive, as we believe this won't permanently affect growth. ...

The Country Reviews are comprehensive and regularly updated reports on every recognized independent country. These robust reports include coverage of a given country's history, economy, government, political landscape including foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultu ...

The Country Reviews are comprehensive and regularly updated reports on every recognized independent country. These robust reports include coverage of a given country's history, economy, government, political landscape including foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultu ...

The Country Reviews are comprehensive and regularly updated reports on every recognized independent country. These robust reports include coverage of a given country's history, economy, government, political landscape including foreign policy orientation, business and investment climate, socio-cultu ...

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have upgraded our 2024 GDP growth estimate for Aruba to 5.6% and have lowered our forecast for 2025 by 0.2 ppts to 4.1%. A stronger US economy than in our previous forecast and continued infrastructure investment contributed to our 2024 revisions. Mea ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The We expect real GDP growth for the Bahamas will cool to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.1% this year. This fall in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla We have marginally revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Anguilla by 0.1ppt to 4.7% y/y. Tourism continues to drive growth, alongside the exponential increase in demand for the country's domain name '.ai' and the anticipated gradual imp ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Antigua and Barbuda by 1.4ppts to 2.8% y/y. We think the momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in tourism numbers will subside and growth levels will be closer to the economy's long-run poten ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Barbados by 0.2ppts to 3.4% and expect growth of 2.8% for 2025. We think significant increases in long-stay visitor arrivals, as well as major construction projects, will sustain growth for the rest of th ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada We have cut our 2025 growth forecast for Grenada by 0.4ppts to 3.7%. We think this summer's Hurricane Beryl, which wrecked infrastructure and housing in the northern islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique, will leave a lasting mark on the supply si ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe We have revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Guadeloupe by 1.7ppts to 2.7%, as growth in tourism continues to drive exports. Although inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, we don't anticipate a strong recovery in ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico We lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus that buoyed infrastructure projects and private consumption will continue to fade. Still, resilient demand from mainland ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica We have doubled our 2024 GDP forecast for Dominica to 4.2% and expect robust growth of 3.1% next year. Our forecast reflects strong near-term prospects due a major recovery in tourism, high public investment, and strong Citizenship-by-Investment revenues ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis We forecast GDP growth for St Kitts and Nevis of 3.6% this year and expect a solid 3.2% expansion in 2025. We think growth will stay robust over the medium term due to recovering tourism receipts, high investment, and ongoing Citizenship-by-In ...

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba We cut Cuba’s 2025 GDP growth forecast by 1.6ppts to 1.9%, following an estimated 0.9% contraction this year. Disruptions at the country’s largest thermoelectric plant and reduced fuel shipments from Russia and Venezuela caused widespread blackouts, while ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines We trimmed our GDP growth forecast for St Vincent and the Grenadines by 0.4ppts to 4.5% y/y for 2024 and 0.3ppts to 2.9%y/y for 2025 because of damage caused by Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in July. The impact of Beryl this year is li ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago We forecast GDP growth for Trinidad and Tobago of 2.7% for next year and 2.6% for 2026. This reflects greater capital spending by the government and public wage settlements with unions, helping to lift capital formation and consumption. But du ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti We revised our 2024 to 2026 GDP forecasts up for Haiti in light of the arrival of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS). It arrived in the middle of this year with the aim of improving the dire security situation in the country. We now expect gro ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands Historical data revisions and a significantly stronger-than-expected demographic outlook led us to raise our short- and medium-term forecasts for the Cayman Islands. We now expect GDP will grow by 1.9% next year before slowing down to 1.6% in 2026. ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique We forecast 2.3% GDP growth for Martinique in 2024, before it moderates to 1.9% in 2025. The tourism recovery and cruise rebound will propel the economy through the medium term. ...

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ...

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts for the Dominican Republic to 4.9% from 4.6% for this year and to 5.0% from 4.9% for 2025. We believe that most of the factors driving the recovery this year will continue to contribute to growth next ye ...

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ...

Dominican Republic In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Dominican Republic provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis.Synopsis Understand the pol ...