Category: Banking
Africa Banking
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... exports going to the US, the immediate economic effect is negligible. However, broader global trade tensions could indirectly affect Egypt through higher business costs and reduced global investment, creating ripple effects that challenge consumption and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
... confidence during the first quarter suggests a deterioration in the outlook for household expenditure. Given that consumption has been one of the few areas in which the South African economy has shown some semblance of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... the US, the broader global uncertainty is expected to mildly dampen domestic activity by curbing trade flows and slowing private investment. Nevertheless, our outlook on Ghana’s economy remains relatively optimistic. Recent progress, such as reforms ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
... eastern DRC. Additionally, a potential reduction in agricultural output due to predicted below-average rainfall in H1 2025 supports a more moderate growth outlook. While the services sector remains a key growth driver, tourism encounters challenges ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
... compared with last year's severe drought will increase overall agricultural production; that said, heavy rains in some areas have adversely affected the quality of crops, moderating our expectation for a strong recovery in the sector. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
... country's agricultural sector also remains exposed to the vagaries of weather. That said, recent IMF disbursements should support growth in foreign exchange reserves, allowing local authorities to stabilise the currency and contain inflationary pressures this ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
... connects the Agadem oilfield in Niger with the Beninese Port of Sèmè-Kpodji. While this comes as a boon to economic growth and assists local authorities in reducing dependence on foreign aid, political tensions threaten this ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
... companies were poised to pay a 30% tariff on goods sent to the US. However, a week later, on April 9, Mr Trump paused tariffs above 10% on all countries except China. Thus, Algeria is ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
... previously tariff-free thanks to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) ‒ will significantly impact Lesotho's economy due to its heavy reliance on textile exports to the US. As a result, we forecast economic growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
... ‒ boosted personal consumption. The external outlook has weakened since our previous forecast due to increased US trade protectionist measures, which will have a modest and indirect albeit adverse impact on domestic exports and consumption. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
... baseline tariff on goods exported to the US. However, Cairo should still feel the effect of harsher tariffs on other countries as it is expected to result in lower global economic growth. The increase in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
... forecast to reflect increased stagflation risks. Real GDP growth for 2025 is revised down to 1.0% from 1.5% previously due to expectations of reduced merchandise trade and lower private sector investment in the near term. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
... key drag on private sector activity, we believe prospects of price stability have improved: the cedi has been relatively stable since February, trading between GHȼ15.30/$ and GHȼ15.50/$ and consumer price inflation fell to a five-month ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
... y/y in Q1, fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices rose by 88.4% y/y over the same period due to adverse weather conditions in key producing regions. Key risks to our real GDP outlook ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
... confidence is increasing, as evidenced by Benin's successful $500m Eurobond sale in January 2025. Meanwhile, price pressures remain moderate, and fiscal consolidation efforts are yielding positive results. That said, challenges persist, including climate risks, regional ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
... consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 and 2030 by 0.6 ppt to 3.8% p.a. in line with the IMF. Downside risks include the island nation's ongoing inflationary pressures ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
... relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted interest from global oil operators who are keen to invest in hydrocarbon exploration. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
... hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GDP in Q4. Recent talks between the new government and the main presidential rival to ease post-election tensions suggest that business conditions could soon return to normal. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
... (Sacu) receipts in the upcoming FY is expected to be offset by rising tax revenues. A partial drawdown of E1.0bn from the Sacu Revenue Stabilisation Fund will further support fiscal revenues. The substantial shift in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
... activity, and infrastructure investment. Sustaining this momentum will require economic diversification and investment in productivity-enhancing sectors. Structural weaknesses also persist, especially regarding fiscal management. Ultimately, we predict growth to slow to 5.5% this year – ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
... 3.5% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2023. Our projection is below the IMF’s 4.3% forecast, as we believe the country's security situation will constrain stronger growth. Violence has spread across most regions and intensified along ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
... projection of 3.5%. That said, we still anticipate a slowdown in Chad's economic growth this year due to lower oil prices. Domestic security issues undermine structural reform momentum and weigh on medium-term economic growth prospects. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
... suggests. This revelation halted IMF payouts under the current arrangement and soured global sentiment towards the West African nation. Even so, the country’s economic potential is promising, especially in the fledgling hydrocarbon sector. We currently ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
... IMF. Against this backdrop, we forecast real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025. Downside risks to our economic outlook include a deterioration in the security situation, unfavourable weather conditions, and uncertainty surrounding the 2025 elections. Read More
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Economy of Morocco 2025
... social inclusion and housing and is in the process of acquiring a significant industrial sector. Morocco boasts Africa's first high speed train line with plans for future expansion. There are vast shale oil deposits but ... Read More
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