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Forecasting Customer Switching and Churn

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: May. 9, 2003 - 174 Pages


Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Netherlands Switching Potential to 2006

Key findings

UK Switching Potential to 2006

Key findings

Germany Switching Potential to 2006

Key findings

Spain Switching Potential to 2006

Key findings

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

What is this report about?

Who is the target reader?

How to use this report

CHAPTER 3 NETHERLANDS SWITCHING CONTEXT

Introduction

Key findings

Position to date

Switching data

Switching analysis

Switching drivers

Price

Assessment of price

M&A Activity

Assessment of M&A Activity

New Entrant Activity

Assessment of new entrant activity

Sales

Assessment of sales activity

Marketing

Assessment of marketing activity

Market conditions

Tariff length

Regulatory influence

CHAPTER 4 UK SWITCHING CONTEXT

Introduction

Key findings

Position to date

Switching data

Switching analysis

Switching drivers

Price

Assessment of price

M&A Activity

Assessment of M&A Activity

New Entrant Activity

Assessment of new entrant activity

Sales

Assessment of sales activity

Marketing

Assessment of marketing activity

Market conditions

Critical Peak

Consolidated market conditions

CHAPTER 5 GERMANY SWITCHING CONTEXT

Introduction

Key findings

Position to date

Switching data

Switching analysis

Switching drivers

Price

Assessment of price

M&A Activity

Assessment of M&A Activity

New Entrant Activity

Assessment of new entrant activity

Sales

Assessment of sales activity

Marketing

Assessment of marketing activity

Market conditions

Customer perceptions

Regulatory influence

Market structure

CHAPTER 6 SPAIN SWITCHING CONTEXT

Introduction

Key findings

Position to date

Switching data

Switching drivers

Price

Assessment of price

M&A Activity

Assessment of M&A Activity

New Entrant Activity

Assessment of new entrant activity

Sales

Assessment of sales activity

Marketing

Assessment of marketing activity

Market conditions

Regulatory analysis

CHAPTER 7 NETHERLANDS FUTURE SWITCHING

Introduction

Key findings

Forecasting framework

Switching potential

Scenarios

Competitive flux

Base forecast

High switching scenario: First mover advantage

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Medium switching scenario: Consolidation

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis 94Probability

Low switching scenario: Non-engagement

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Conclusion

CHAPTER 8 UK FUTURE SWITCHING

Introduction

Key findings

Forecasting framework

Switching potential

Scenarios

Base forecast

High switching scenario: Unlocking full ‘first time’ potential

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Medium switching scenario: Market saturation

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Low switching scenario: Organic acqusition redundancy

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Conclusion

CHAPTER 9 GERMANY FUTURE SWITCHING

Introduction

Key findings

Forecasting framework

Switching potential

Scenarios

Base forecast

High switching scenario: Competitive restructuring

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Medium switching scenario: Limited incursions

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Low switching scenario: Stagnation

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Conclusion

CHAPTER 10 SPAIN FUTURE SWITCHING

Introduction

Key findings

Forecasting framework

Switching potential

Scenarios

Base forecast

High switching scenario: Multi-service model

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Medium Switching Scenario: Product expansion

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Low Switching Scenario: Incumbent consolidation

Scenario depiction

Variable analysis

Probability

Conclusion

CHAPTER 11 APPENDIX

Supplementary data

The Netherlands future switching data

The UK future switching data

Germany future switching data

Spain future switching data

Research methodology

Future readings

SPP writing team

How to contact experts in your industry




Abstract

Introduction
Depressed market conditions and the overriding influence of customer inertia ensure the necessity for key decision makers to understand switching potential within their market. The report is an invaluable resource for maximizing sales and marketing returns and targeting the customer groups that matter.

Scope
Delivers detailed historical switching data and analysis for four leading residential deregulated markets: The Netherlands, the UK, Germany and Spain

Provides analysis of what has driven switching, detailing: price, marketing, direct sales, new entrant activity and M&A activity

Using a robust methodology, it constructs switching forecasts to 2006 within different switching environments for each national market

It delivers an understanding of switching potential within each market, analyzing potential supplier strategies under each scenario

Report Highlights
Analysis of historical switching within the four country markets examined has included some of the key insight detailed below: The UK: churn which currently forms 34% of the switching rate, will form a greater influence upon, not only switching levels, but relevant supplier strategy.

Germany: 1.8 million customers have switched by June 2002. This amounts to 4.7% of the 40 million strong residential market after four years of competition.

Forecasting analysis produces an example of the following insight: The Netherlands: The switching rate described within the “High” scenario amounts to 1,955,000 switchers in cumulative terms, by January 2006. This is an average monthly switching rate of 81,000,amounting to 29% of the Dutch residential market.

Reasons to Purchase
Historical switching: the report is populated with country-specific, historical data. This gives market insight and assesses switching potential

Market analysis: understanding of switching drivers provides answers as to what has influenced customer behavior towards supplier S&M strategies

Switching forecasts: “High”, “Medium” and “Low” forecast scenarios contain future switching data. This allows the reader to plan with confidence



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