Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 14, 2012 - 70 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Agricultural SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Pakistan Rice Outlook
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Pakistan Sugar Outlook
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Pakistan Grains Outlook
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Pakistan Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Pakistan Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Pakistan Cotton Outlook
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Pakistan Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Sufficient Supply
Coffee: Temporary Rally
Cotton: Against Resistance
Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex
Sugar: Surging Supply
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time
Corn: Looking The Weakest
Soybean: Little Relief Ahead
Rice: A Strong Performer
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown, %
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Pakistan’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Pakistan’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Pakistan’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Pakistan’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI View: The 2012 monsoon season was relatively kind to Pakistan’s farmers, especially incomparison with the devastating floods of 2010. Although localised flooding caused severe destruction inparts of Sindh and Balochistan, the main breadbasket region of Punjab enjoyed late rains after a dry startto the season, improving the prospects of rice, corn and cotton in particular.

Key Forecasts

Corn production to 2016/17: up 30.0% to 5.6mn tonnes. Continually improving yields andhigh prices on world markets will support an impressive increase in corn production.

Cotton consumption to 2016/17: up 23.2% to 12.5mn tonnes. Demand for cotton will surge inthe early years of our forecast as the EU lifts tariffs for a year, before falling back to steady yearon-year (y-o-y) growth.

Rice production to 2016/17: up 16.5% to 7.3mn tonnes. Pakistan will retain its place amongthe world’s most important exporters of the commodity as its producers look to expand into newmarkets.

2013 real GDP growth: 4.0%. Up from 3.7% y-o-y in 2012.

Consumer price inflation: 12.4% in 2013 (up from 11% y-o-y in 2012).

Industry Outlook

The 2012 monsoon season was relatively kind to Pakistan’s farmers, especially relative to the devastatingfloods of 2010. Although localised flooding caused severe destruction in parts of Sindh and Balochistan,the main breadbasket region of Punjab enjoyed late rains after a dry start to the season; this has improvedthe prospects of rice, corn and cotton in particular.

In a major boost to the cotton industry, the EU has finally enacted a long-discussed measure that willsuspend import duties on a range of cotton products from Pakistan. The European Parliament finalised themove in September, although the regulation will only apply until the end of 2013, rather than the two-yearperiod initially pushed for by the EU. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association, the EU isone of Pakistan’s largest trading partners, accounting for more than 30% of the country’s total exports. Ofthis, the 75 items allowed under the deal contribute about EUR921mn, or 30% of the country’s totalexports into the EU.

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