Geopolitics and its Impact on Tourism - Thematic Research

Geopolitics and its Impact on Tourism - Thematic Research

Summary

Geopolitics refers to the influence of factors such as geography, economics, demographics and culture in the politics of a state and these ultimately shape the way that businesses and destinations operate.

This thematic research report takes an in-depth look at the theme of Geopolitics and its relation to key players across the sector and individual tourists. This report analyzes contributing trends to a geopolitical crisis, negative trends and geopolitical drivers of travel; it then presents an array of case studies observing the impacts of geopolitics on tourism. Recommendations are then offered for the travel sector alongside a description of companies mentioned throughout the piece.

“Every global conflict, upheaval, clash of leadership and global issue can connect to one common strand - travel, affecting the freedom of movement which lies at the center of every geopolitical crisis. Pandemics, trade wars, nuclear weapons, land disputes, cyber-attacks, military tensions, domestic disputes and migration are all trends that can contribute to a geopolitical crisis, jeopardizing the travel and tourism sector along the way. The world however is consistently changing which may accentuate other trends that will cause conflict in the near future”. - Johanna Bonhill-Smith, Travel & Tourism Associate Analyst, GlobalData.

Key Highlights

  • The world’s leading economies have the most power when it comes to trade, investment and also travel. Seven out of the top ten leading economies are the world’s most active travelers and six out of ten are also the world’s largest travel and tourism spenders. Geopolitical tensions domestically, between these or other destinations has the potential to cause catastrophic damage for the travel industry.
  • One of the most obvious but no less pivotal impacts of geopolitics on tourism, is the decrease in inbound travel. Once a conflict occurs, airlines can cease flights, tour operators can cancel itineraries, cruise operators can hinder pathways causing inbound travel to seriously deteriorate.
  • Political and economic instability have long been interlinked. Whilst this may depend on the situation, an intense geopolitical situation can have a ruinous effect on an economy affecting currency, employment, productivity, growth, foreign direct investment, etc. Decreased incomes leads to a falling economy which further escalates spending constraints.
  • COVID-19 has heightened geopolitical flashpoints worldwide - primarily led by the two hegemonic super powers (US and China). With air bridges and travel bubbles now looking to form, more tensions are likely to rise between destinations.
  • GlobalData’s risk index Q22019 finds that countries that have both high political and macroeconomic risks are more likely to encounter geopolitical tensions led by nationalist agendas, jeopardizing the relationship between destinations hindering tourism development. The relation between neighboring counties in a region can have a detrimental impact on domestic tourism alongside regional and inbound travel hindering the possibility of developing a viable tourism industry.
Scope
  • This thematic report provides an overview of how geopolitics influences the travel sector today and the effects of this.
  • The key trends within this theme are split between trends that contribute to a geopolitical crisis, negative trends as a result and the geopolitical drivers of tourism flows.
  • Several case studies are included to identify different geopolitical crises and the impact on travel and tourism during each event.
  • Our unique thematic analysis then dives deep into geopolitics role in travel and tourism, looking at the world’s leading economies and how COVID-19 has changed tourists’ perception of a destination. The regional risk analysis identifies that countries with a high political and macroeconomic risk are likely to clash affecting tourism development.
Reasons to Buy
  • Understand how geopolitics interlinks with the travel and tourism sector accessing the impacts and observing case studies where crises have occurred and how tourism has been affected.
  • Assess how COVID-19 and the introduction of ‘air bubbles’ and ‘travel bridges’ are likely to accelerate existing tensions.
  • Discover recommendations that will help to aid tourism development after a crisis, embarking on the road to recovery.
  • GlobalData’s thematic research ecosystem is a single, integrated global research platform that provides an easy-to-use framework for tracking all themes across all companies in all sectors. It has a proven track record of identifying the important themes early, enabling companies to make the right investments ahead of the competition, and secure that all-important competitive advantage.
  • DMO’s and TMC’s within the travel and tourism industry should utilize this report to understand the relationship between geopolitics and the travel and tourism sector and how each affects the other.
  • This thematic applies to all industries within the travel sector including airlines, hotels, attractions and tour operators - management roles across different providers are likely to benefit, observing how a geopolitical crisis can escalate causing problems for tourism development.


  • Summary
    • Global trends contribute to a crisis
    • COVID-19 impact will accelerate existing tensions
    • 2020 is a year that will lead to fundamental changes
  • Players
    • Table Figure 1: Who is involved within geopolitics?
  • Trends
    • Table Trends contributing to Geopolitical tensions
    • Negative trends as a result of Geopolitical tensions
      • Table Negative trends as a result of Geopolitical tensions
    • Geopolitical trends as drivers of tourism
      • Table Geopolitical trends as drivers of tourism
  • Case studies
    • Arab Spring
    • Failed coup attempt in Turkey
    • US & Iran conflict – Persian Gulf Crisis
    • China and India border conflict
    • Brexit – UK's exit from the EU
    • Trade war between US and China
    • The independence of Hong Kong
  • Thematic Analysis
    • Table Figure 2: Top 10 word's leading economies 2019
    • Safety and security are critical components of the appeal of a destination
      • Table Figure 3: GlobalData 2020 Coronavirus (COVID-19) consumer survey: How trustworthy do you consider the products made/imported from China? -% of respondents for 'not at all trustworthy'
  • Regional risk analysis
    • Europe: Russia and Ukraine
      • Table Figure 4: Europe risk Analysis
    • Asia: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan
      • Table Figure 5: Asia Risk Analysis
    • Middle East: Syria, Yemen and Libya
      • Table Figure 6: Middle East Risk Analysis
    • Americas: Venezuela and Cuba
      • Table Figure 7: Americas Risk Analysis
    • Timeline
      • Table Figure 8: Geopolitics will continue to play a major role in the story of travel and tourism…
  • Impact of Geopolitics on Travel & Tourism
    • Political instabilityleads to uncertainty and lack of spending,hindering travel recovery
    • A decline in international travel due to reputational damage
    • Neighboring countries without conflict may become more attractive
    • `Travel bridges' or `air bubbles' as a result of COVID-19 will accelerate tensions
  • Recommendations for the Travel and Tourism sector
  • Companies
    • Table Companies within travel and tourism
  • Glossary
    • Table Glossary
  • Appendix: Our thematic research methodology
    • Viewing the world's data by themes makes it easier to make important decisions
    • Traditional research does a poor job of picking winners and losers
    • That is why we developed our "thematic engine"
    • How do we create our sector scorecards?
      • Table Figure 9: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
    • What is in our sector scorecards?
    • How do we score companies in our thematic screen?
    • How our research reports fit into our overall thematic research ecosystem
    • About GlobalData
    • Contact us
    • Research
    • Client Services
    • Disclaimer

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