Chile Renewables Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 2, 2013 - 30 Pages


Table of Contents

BMI View
SWOT Analysis
Chile Renewables SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Chile Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: Chile Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: Chile Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: Chile Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: Chile - Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2013-2021
Renewables Projects Database
Table: Renewables Key Projects
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
Subsidies
Infrastructure
Ratings
Chile Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Enersis/Endesa
Mainstream Renewable Power
Pacific Hydro
Goldwind
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology
Generation Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources

Abstract

BMI View: We have downgraded our non-hydropower renewable generation growth forecast for 2013from 6.2% to 5.6% due to new data from the government. Conversely, we have revised up our long-termgrowth forecast from 5.5% to 6.3%, due to our expectations of economic growth and the country'scurrent power situation. That said, we note that economic viability could be lacking in many renewableenergy projects in Chile because of a lack of regulatory support.

We forecast non-hydropower renewable energy generation to grow at 5.6% in Chile in 2013, down fromour previous forecast of 6.2%. This downward revision is because of new government data on thecountry's renewable energy capacity. In October 2012, Chile's renewable energy center (CER) revealedthat there was 155 megawatts (MW) of new non-hydropower capacity under construction at end-September. Additionally, some of these projects will only be completed after 2013, and we havemoderated our forecasts down slightly to account for this.

We remain relatively upbeat over the long term, and have revised up our forecasts for growth in nonhydropowerrenewable generation to average from 5.5% to 6.3% per annum between 2013 and 2021. Ourrevision was prompted by several factors, namely economic growth, the country's current energysituation, and government data.

The key trends and regulatory changes in the Chilean renewables industry are:

In October 2012, the Chilean government dropped its target of 20% of the electricity gridsupplied from renewable energy by 2020.

A period of drought occurred in late 2010 and early 2011, and led to severe power shortages.Shortages have continued to occur, and power rationing measures were in place between early2011 and April 2012.

Plans to link the transmission systems in the north and the south of the country were announcedin February 2012.

Siemens Energy won an order to supply 115MW of turbines for the El Arrayan power project inMay 2012, signaling continued attractiveness of the sector.

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