Market and Product Forecasts: Alzheimer's Disease - Multi-billion dollar potential in high-risk pipeline

Published by: MarketLine

Published: Nov. 16, 2011 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for this disease
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
The Alzheimer’s disease market is set to more than double over the next 10 years
Immunotherapies will provide the impetus for growth
Treatment of the early stages of disease will become extremely lucrative
US market overview
Japan market overview
France market overview
Germany market overview
Italy market overview
Spain market overview
UK market overview
PRODUCT FORECASTS
Product dynamics
Namenda is on the brink of replacing Aricept as the highest-selling Alzheimer’s disease brand
The pipeline is projected to capture a market share in excess of 50%
Aricept (donepezil; Eisai/Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Aricept forecast 2011–20
Exelon (rivastigmine; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
Exelon forecast 2011–20
Razadyne (galantamine; Johnson & Johnson/Shire)
Forecast assumptions
Razadyne forecast 2011–20
Namenda (memantine; Forest/Merz/Lundbeck)
Forecast assumptions
Namenda forecast 2011–20
Bapineuzumab (Johnson & Johnson/Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Bapineuzumab forecast 2011–20
Solanezumab (Eli Lilly)
Forecast assumptions
Solanezumab forecast 2011–20
Gammagard (intravenous immunoglobulin; Baxter)
Forecast assumptions
Gammagard forecast 2011–20
Aricept patch (transdermal donepezil; Eisai/Teikoku Seiyaku)
Forecast assumptions
Aricept patch forecast 2011–20
SB-742457 (GlaxoSmithKline)
Forecast assumptions
SB-742457 forecast 2011–20
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Physician sample breakdown
Report methodology

Abstract

Introduction

Valued at almost $6bn in the seven major markets in 2011 (US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), the Alzheimer’s disease drug market is forecast to experience double-digit growth to 2020. The catalysts for this include an aging population, earlier and improved diagnosis, and the introduction of immunotherapies that will be prescribed in addition to existing treatments.

Features and benefits
  • Access Datamonitor’s patient-based Alzheimer’s disease market forecast in the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
  • Evaluate a highly granular forecast with sales value and volume projections to 2020 at the country, class, product, and indication level.
  • Understand Alzheimer’s disease market dynamics and which factors will lead to commercial success.
  • Review the products Datamonitor forecasts to launch over the next ten years, and how each subsequent launch will shape the market.
Highlights

The Alzheimer’s disease market in the seven major markets is set to more than double over the next 10 years, from $5.8bn in 2011 to $14.5bn in 2020. The catalysts for this growth include an increasingly elderly population, earlier and improved diagnosis, and the introduction of immunotherapies.Pfizer/Eisai’s Aricept (donepezil) is set to remain the highest-selling brand in 2011 with Forest/Lundbeck/Merz’s Namenda (memantine) close behind. However, the two drugs are following differing growth trajectories: Namenda’s sales will continue to rise while Aricept’s revenues are being severely eroded by generic competition.Beta-amyloid immunotherapies such as bapineuzumab, solanezumab, and Gammagard have the potential to grow the market by $7.6bn. Datamonitor forecasts that around 600,000 patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease will receive immunotherapies annually by 2020 in the seven major markets.

Your key questions answered
  • What degree of commercial success does Datamonitor forecast for key pipeline drugs?
  • What will the overall Alzheimer’s disease market dynamics be over the next 10 years?
  • How will sales of the major drug classes in Alzheimer’s disease evolve during the forecast period?
  • Which of the seven major markets provides the greatest opportunity for growth?
  • Which Alzheimer’s disease indications are the most lucrative?
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