Hong Kong Retail Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 14, 2012 - 76 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Hong Kong Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flagsshort-term concerns about the impact on Hong Kong's economic outlook of falling property prices.The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hong Kong retail market while minimisinginvestment risk, and also explores the impact of the slowdown in the eurozone and US on the Hong Kongconsumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leadingplayers in the Hong Kong retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by thelocal market. Hong Kong comes fourth out of seven in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperformssignificantly for risk. Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 28% between 2013 and 2017, from US$0.31bn toUS$0.39bn as locally involved companies take advantage of growth in the mainland Chinese drugmarket. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's cost-cutting initiatives, whichwill benefit the generic drugs sector, and the strategic framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicablediseases, which should stimulate prescription and patented segments. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: BMI is maintaining its bearish take on the Hong Kong economy, and sees real GDP growthcoming in at 2.2% through 2012, versus consensus expectations for 3.0% expansion. We expectthis economic weakness to extend into 2013, with economic growth seeing a marginalacceleration to 3.5%. We are of the view that trade weakness, which weighed heavily on theeconomy in the first quarter of 2012, is likely to see further downward pressure in the quartersahead, and consequently expect this factor to be the dominant drag on Hong Kong's growthprospects. BMI expects private consumption growth to slow to 2.5% through 2012 from 4.5% in 2011,contributing 1.5 percentage points (pp) to headline expansion. We expect private consumption tobe the primary drag on the economy as factors such as rising unemployment and negative wealtheffects come to the fore, although we expect government infrastructure spending to providesome upshot for investment spending. Get full details about this report >> |
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