Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 10, 2012 - 84 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractWe have revised down our forecast for Polish wheat and barley output in 2012/13 as droughts duringplantings have affected production more than expected. We have also revised down our pork productionforecast for 2013, as this livestock sector has been particularly hurt by high feed prices and low demand.For dairy, the industry’s export potential supports our positive view on the sector, with recentacquisitions serving as examples. The government’s recent decision to drop the privatisation of thecountry’s largest sugar producer could delay the modernisation process of the industry and put downsiderisks to our sugar forecasts.Key Forecasts Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 4.6% to 9.8mn tonnes. The EU’s Rural DevelopmentPlan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, will encourage consolidation,modernisation of agricultural holdings, and infrastructure improvements in the country’s grainsfarms, boosting yields of all three grains covered in our report. Sugar consumption growth to 2016: -0.4% to 1.7mn tonnes. The recent decision to notprivatise Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa (KSC), the country’s largest sugar producer, will preventsignificant improvement in competitiveness of the country’s producers, leaving consumer pricesfor the industry high. Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 19.7% to 1.7mn tonnes. Compulsory origin labellingcould help to buoy domestic production and secure it against imports. 2013 real GDP growth: 2.7% (down from an expected 2.5% in 2012; predicted to average3.5% over 2011-2016). Consumer price inflation: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2013 (slightly downfrom the 4.1% y-o-y forecast for 2012). BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.8% y-o-y decline to US$17.6bn in 2012/13,forecast to increase on average by 0.2% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16. How Much More Growth? EU-27 – Ethanol Production (‘000 b/d) Source: US Energy Information Association Industry Developments Compared with the US and Brazil, the EU is a relatively small ethanol producer. The EU bioethanolmarket represented only about 28% of the total biofuels market in the road transport sector in 2011. Themajority of the production capacity in the EU has been installed in France, Germany, the UK, Spain andPoland. However, until 2011, most of the EU ethanol plants were functioning below capacity, as they hadjust been built and needed a start-up phase to become fully operational. In addition, EU plants havegenerally not been competitive compared with their US and Brazilian counterparts. This has led to cheapimports and endangered local producers’ margins. Milkiland, a large dairy producer operating in Ukraine and Russia, in September 2012 announced theacquisition of Mazowiecka Spoldzielnia Mleczarska ‘Ostrowia’, a cheese factory in Eastern Poland, forPLN49.3mn. The factory is an advanced facility producing a wide range of dairy products, including hardcheese, curd cheese, yoghurt and processed cheese. It was acquired by Milkiland EU, a newlyestablished Polish subsidiary of Milkiland Group. Poland dropped plans to sell KSC, its largest sugar producer, to the firm’s workers and farmers forPLN1.2bn (US$380mn) because of concerns that the future company would be more vulnerable to hostiletakeovers. The decision took into consideration the risks related to the current mergers and acquisitionsenvironment as well as potential economic and financial vulnerabilities of the company. Get full details about this report >> |
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