Epidemiology: COPD – Aging population and stable smoking rates to raise case numbers

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Aug. 17, 2012 - 43 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Epidemiology of COPD
COPD in the seven major markets
Datamonitor’s forecast of COPD
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA
COPD background
Spirometry is the gold standard for diagnosing COPD
Classification of COPD
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
COPD is significantly underdiagnosed worldwide
Trends in COPD incidence and prevalence rates are driven by smoking rates
COPD causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide
Morbidity
Mortality
DRIVERS OF COPD EPIDEMIOLOGY
Risk factors
Age is one of the leading risk factors in COPD
High male prevalence rates of COPD are related to other increased risk factors in males
Tobacco smoke is the leading risk factor of COPD
Genetics are related to susceptibility in COPD
Occupational exposures and other air pollutants increase risk of COPD
Co-morbid conditions
Asthma and COPD can be confused in diagnosis
Pulmonary and respiratory infection are common exacerbations in COPD
Cardiovascular co-morbidities are related to similar risk factors between the two diseases
Pulmonary hypertension prevalence increases with severity of COPD
Patients with COPD are at a significantly increased risk of lung cancer
Osteoporosis and the number of fractures are much higher in those with COPD
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF COPD
Overview
Subpopulations
Age and gender
Severity
US
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Japan
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
France
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Germany
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Italy
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Spain
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
UK
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Current prevalent cases and future trends of COPD
Severity
Age and gender
Age-standardized prevalence rates
DISCUSSION
Strengths and limits of Datamonitor’s epidemiologic projections
Conclusions
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Module methodology

Abstract

Introduction

In 2010, Datamonitor estimates that there were about 69.5 million total prevalent cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in people aged over 40 in the seven major markets(the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Approximately 54% of cases were mild, 38% were moderate, and 8% were severe or very severe.

Features and benefits
  • Gain insight into market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalent cases.
  • Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Highlights

Between 2010 and 2020, Datamonitor expects to see a significant increase in the number of total prevalent cases of COPD in those over age 40 in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), from 69.5 million cases to 79.5 million cases. The largest increase will be in the US and the smallest in Germany.Datamonitor estimates that the largest number of cases of COPD will be in those over age 70, especially in men, due to the fact that COPD prevalence rates increase with age and men are more likely to be smokers. Of the prevalent cases, 11% will be in those aged 40–49, 21% in those aged 50–59, 25% in those aged 60–69, and 42% in those aged over 70.Datamonitor estimates that in 2010, the majority of COPD cases in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) were mild cases. Approximately 54% of cases were mild, 38% were moderate, and 8% were severe or very severe.

Your key questions answered
  • What are the most robust sources for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence data?
  • How will the patient population change through to 2020 in the US, Japan, and the five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK)?
  • How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in prevalent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cases?


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