US Explosives Trace Detection (ETD) Technologies & Markets - 2010 - 2014

Published by: Homeland Security Research Corporation

Published: Jul. 1, 2009 - 140 Pages

Table of Contents

1 Scope

1.1 Basic Assumptions

1.1.1 Is There a Threat?

1.1.2 Possible Scenario Analysis

1.1.3 Additional Assumptions

1.2 Methodology

1.2.1 Research Methods

1.2.2 Report Structure

1.2.3 Who Is This Report For?

1.3 Types of Explosives Detection

1.3.1 Explosives Trace Detection (ETD)

1.3.2 Bulk Explosives Detection

2 Executive Summary

2.1 Major Findings

2.2 Major Conclusions

2.3 The Econimic Slowdown - Impact on the ETD Market

2.3.1 Economy Downturn Impacts on ETD Sub-markets

2.4 ETD Market Outlook - 2010-2014

3 ETD Market - Drivers

4 ETD Market - Inhibitors

5 The Impact of the 2009 “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act” on the ETD Market

6 Current Explosives Trace Detection (ETD) Technologies

6.1 Explosives Trace Detection (ETD)

6.1.1 ETD Principles of Operation

6.1.2 ETD Based Checked Luggage Screening

6.2 ETD Core Technologies

6.2.1 Ion Mobility Spectroscopy (IMS)

6.2.2 ChemiLuminescence (CL)

6.2.3 Electron Capture Detectors (ECD)

6.2.4 Electron Capture Detectors (ECD) Advantages

6.2.5 Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW)

6.3 ETD Based People Screening Portals

7 ETD Systems Market Outlook - 2010-2014

7.1 Airport Cabin - Baggage Screening

7.2 Secured Facilities - Explosives Screening

7.3 Airport Checked Luggage Screening

7.3.1 Airport Checked Luggage Screening Process

7.3.2 Airport Checked Luggage Screening Market

7.4 Air Cargo Screening

7.4.1 Air Cargo Screening Market Background

7.4.2 Air Cargo Security Policy

7.4.3 TSA Air Cargo Security - Pilot Programs

7.4.4 Evaluating Air Cargo ETD Technology

7.4.5 The Cost of 100% Air Cargo Screening

7.4.6 Air Cargo Screening ETD Market Outlook - 2010-2014

7.5 People Screening Portals

7.6 Mail Items Screening

7.7 1st Responders Bomb Search ETD

8 ETD Service, Consumables & Upgrade Market Outlook - 2010-2014

8.1 Market by Applications

8.2 Market Structure

9 ETD Product Comparison

9.1 Desktop ETD

9.2 Portable (Swab) ETD

9.3 Hand Held ETD

9.4 Document Scanners ETD

9.5 People Screening ETD Portals

10 ETD Business Opportunities

10.1 Opportunity 1

10.2 Opportunity 2

10.3 Opportunity 3

10.4 Opportunity 4

10.5 Opportunity 5

10.6 Opportunity 6

10.7 Opportunity 7

10.8 Opportunity 8

10.9 Opportunity 9

10.10 Opportunity 10

10.11 Opportunity 11

11 Technology Outlook - 2010-2014

11.1 Techno-Tactical Needs

11.2 ETD of the Future: Techno-Tactical Drivers

11.3 ETD of the Future: Performance & Operational Goals

11.4 Advanced Sample Collection

11.5 Dual technology ETD

11.5.1 Integrated Explosives, Chemical Warfare and Narcotics Trace Detectors

12 Appendix A: TSA Checked Luggage EDS & ETD Screening Configurations

13 Appendix B: TSA Air Cargo Facility Regulations

14 Appendix C: TSA Checked Luggage Systems

15 Appendix D: The DOJ ETD Evaluation Protocol for 1st Responders

15.1 Introduction

15.2 The Basics of Instrument Operation

15.3 Protocol for Characterizing a Trace Explosives Detector

15.3.1 Probability of Detection - P(d)

15.3.2 Detection Limit (DL)

15.3.3 False-Negative Rate

15.3.4 False-Positive Test

15.3.5 Nuisance-Alarm Rate

15.3.6 Interference Tests

15.3.7 Throughput Rate

15.3.8 Sampling Time

15.3.9 Analysis Time

15.3.10 Total Processing Time

16 Appendix E: TSA Glossary

List of Tables

2 Executive Summary

Table 1 - USA Potential Targets Requiring ETD Screening

Table 2 - Economic Recession Impacts on ETD Sub-markets

Table 3 - U.S. ETD (Systems Sales, Service, Consumables & Upgrade) Market by Application [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 4 - U.S. ETD (Systems Sales, Service, Consumables & Upgrade) Market Structure [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 5 - U.S. ETD (Systems Sales, Service, Consumables & Upgrade) Market Segmentation [%] - 2008-2014

6 Current Explosives Trace Detection (ETD) Technologies

Table 6 - ETD vs. Bulk Explosives Detection Technologies

Table 7 - Checked Luggage Screening TSA Approved ETD Systems Performance

Table 8 - Trace Explosive Detection Technologies

Table 9 - ETD Portals - Sensor Technology Comparison

7 ETD Systems Market Outlook - 2010-2014

Table 10 - ETD Market: Airport Cabin Baggage Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 11 - Airport Cabin Baggage Screening ETD Market [Unit] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

Table 12 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 13 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market [Unit] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

Table 14 - ETD Market: Airport Checked Luggage Screening Sector [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 15 - Airport Checked Luggage ETD Market [Units] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

Table 16 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 17 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening Market [Units] & Market Share in Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

Table 18 - ETD Based People Screening Portals Sector Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 19 - ETD Based People Screening Portals [Unit] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market Outlook [%] - 2008-2014

Table 20 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 21 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market [Units] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

Table 22 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market Outlook [$M] - 2008- 2014

Table 23 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market [Units] & Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008-2014

8 ETD Service, Consumables & Upgrade Market Outlook - 2010-2014

Table 24 - U.S. ETD Service, Consumables and Upgrade Market by Application [$M] - 2008-2014

Table 25 - U.S. ETD Service, Consumables and Upgrade Market Structure [%] - 2008-2014

9 ETD Product Comparison

Table 26 - Desktop ETD: Products Price, Technologies & Capabilities Comparison

Table 27 - Portable (Swab) ETD: Products Price, Technologies & Capabilities Comparison

Table 28 - Hand-Held ETD: Products Price, Technologies & Capabilities Comparison

Table 29 - Document Scanners ETD: Products Price, Technologies & Capabilities Comparison

Table 30 - People Screening ETD Portals Price Comparison

12 Appendix A: TSA Checked Luggage EDS & ETD Screening Configurations

Table 31 - Potential ETD Machines-Equipment Assumptions

14 Appendix C: TSA Checked Luggage Systems

Table 32 - ETD Geometrical & Power Consumption Specification Characteristics

List of Figures

1 Scope

Figure 1 - Airport Explosives Threats Vectors

Figure 2 - Explosives Bulk and Trace Detection

2 Executive Summary

Figure 3 - Air-Cargo Screening & Checked Luggagge Screening In The Ensemble Of Airport Security Means

Figure 4 - ETD Modalities Timeline - 2008-2020

Figure 5 - ETD (Systems Sales, Service, Consumables & Upgrade) Market [$ Million] - 2010-2014

Figure 6 - ETD (Systems Sales, Service, Consumables & Upgrade) Market [%] by Application - 2008 & 2014

Figure 7 - U.S. ETD (Systems Sales, Service, and Consumables & Upgrade) Market Fragmentation [%] - 2008 & 2014

6 Current Explosives Trace Detection (ETD) Technologies

Figure 8 - Figure Explosives Detection Technologies: Bulk vs. Trace

Figure 9 - Trace Detection General Principle of Operation

Figure 10 - ETD Operational Workflow

Figure 11 - Standalone EDS and ETD Luggage Screening Configuration

Figure 12 - Stand-Alone Table Top ETD Systems Configuration for Small Airports

Figure 13 - The Airborne Concentration of Various Explosives

Figure 14 - Typical Sensitivity of Various Explosive Trace Detection Technologies

Figure 15 - Tabletop ETD

Figure 16 - ETD People Screening Portals

Figure 17 - ETD People Screening Portals - Principle of Operation

7 ETD Systems Market Outlook - 2010-2014

Figure 18 - ETD Market: Airport Cabin Baggage Screening Sector [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 19 - ETD Market: Airport Cabin Baggage Screening Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 20 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 21 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market by Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 22 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market [Units] - 2008-2014

Figure 23 - Secured Facilities Explosives Screening ETD Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 24 - Schematic Diagram of EDS and ETD Checked Luggage Flow Chart

Figure 25 - ETD Market: Airport Checked Luggage Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 26 - ETD Market: Airport Checked Luggage Screening Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 27 - Airport Checked Luggage ETD Market [Units]

Figure 28 - Airport Checked Luggage ETD Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 29 - U.S. Air Cargo Shipments: FAA Historic Data and Forecasts (FY1999-FY2020)

Figure 30 - Flow of Cargo from Shipper to Air Carrier

Figure 31 - Screening Air Cargo Using Explosives Trace Detection and Loading It onto Passenger Aircraft

Figure 32 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 33 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening by Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 34 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening Market Outlook [Unit] - 2008-2014

Figure 35 - ETD Based Air Cargo Screening Market Share in Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 $ 2014

Figure 36 - ETD Based People Screening Portals Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 37 - ETD Based People Screening Portals by Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 38 - ETD Based People Screening Portals Market [Unit] - 2008-2014

Figure 39 - ETD Based People Screening Portals Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 40 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market Outlook [$M] - 2008-2014

Figure 41 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market by Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 42 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market Outlook [Units] - 2008-2014

Figure 43 - ETD Based Mail Items Screening Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 44 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market Outlook [$M] - 2008- 2014

Figure 45 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market by Sector [%] - 2008 & 2014

Figure 46 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market Outlook [Units] - 2008-2014

Figure 47 - ETD Based 1st Responders Bomb Search Market Share in the Total ETD Market [%] - 2008 & 2014

8 ETD Service, Consumables & Upgrade Market Outlook - 2010-2014

Figure 48 - U.S. ETD Systems Service and Upgrade Market by Application [$Million] - 2010-2014

Figure 49 - U.S. ETD Systems Service and Upgrade Market Structure [%] - 2008 & 2014

10 ETD Business Opportunities

Figure 50 - The ETD Performance Criteria

12 Appendix A: TSA Checked Luggage EDS & ETD Screening

Configurations

Figure 51 - Checked Luggage ETD-EDS Screening Configuration - 1

Figure 52 - Checked Luggage ETD-EDS Screening Configuration - 2

Figure 53 - Schematic Visualization of a Mini in-Line System

Figure 54 - Checked Luggage ETD-EDS Screening Configuration - 3 Mini In-Line System with Light Integration

Figure 55 - Checked Luggage ETD-EDS Screening Configuration - Stand-Alone EDS

Figure 56 - Stand-Alone Checked Luggage ETD System

Abstract

• Market Segmentation by End Customer - (e.g., Airports, secured facilities, 1st responders bomb search teams, mail facilities)
• Market Segmentation by product - (e. g., Hand held and tabletop systems, people screening portals )
• Market Segmentation by commercial Sectors - (e.g., Systems market, service, consumables and upgrade markets)
• Business Opportunities by Threats & Vulnerabilities - (e.g., Secondary bomb search, aviation security, infrastructure security)
• Market Drivers & Inhibitors - Shaping the growth opportunities in the ETD Markets

• The Obama administration is committed to accelerating the deployment of state-of-the-art airport cabin and checked baggage screening systems
• There is currently no other modality that can compete with ETD’s cost-performance in the detection and identification of explosives.
• The need to secure over 15000 government and private sector secured facilities
• Congress is applying bi-partisan pressure on the TSA to implement 100% Air Cargo screening on scheduled passenger flights
• The proliferation of ETD-based People Screening Portals on the backdrop of the negative public reaction toward MM-Wave and X-Ray based People Screening Portals

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