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Published by: Intelace Research
Published: Oct. 1, 2009 - 41 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: Baltic countries -population, area and GDP contribution, 1H2009
- Slide 3: Gross domestic product evolution, 2002-1H 2009; GDP per capita 1H 2009
- Slide 4: Inflation, C/A balance, 2002-1H 2009
- Slide 5: Wages & salaries, 2002-2009; unemployment rates 1H 2009
- Slide 6: Yield curves, 1H 2009
- Slide 7: CEE banking markets: size vs. growth matrix, 2006-2008
- Slide 8: CEE banking penetration benchmarks -International comparison, 2008
- Slide 9: Banking assets evolution by country, 2002-1H 2009, penetration benchmarks 1H 2009
- Slide 10: Top 5 banking groups in Baltic countries, combined market share, 1H 2009
- Slide 11: Retail deposits & loans by country comparison; per capita benchmarks,1H 2009
- 2. Estonia
- Slide 12: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 1H 2009
- Slide 13: Banking market concentration -benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 14: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 15: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 16: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2002-1H 2009
- Slide 17: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2002-1H 2009
- 3. Latvia
- Slide 18: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 1H 2009
- Slide 19: Banking market concentration -benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 20: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 21: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 22: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2002-1H 2009
- Slide 23: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2002-1H 2009
- 4. Lithuania
- Slide 24: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 1H 2009
- Slide 25: Banking market concentration -benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 26: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 27: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2005-1H 2009
- Slide 28: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2002-1H 2009
- Slide 29: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2002-1H 2009
- 5. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 30: Forecast : Estonia -Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, 2009-2011
- Slide 31: Forecast : Latvia -Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, 2009-2011
- Slide 32: Forecast : Lithuania -Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, 2009-2011
- 6. Methodological note
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: Baltic countries - population, area and GDP contribution, 2007
- Slide 3: Gross domestic product evolution, 2000-2007; GDP per capita 2007
- Slide 4: Inflation, C/A balance, 2000-2007
- Slide 5: Wages & salaries, 2000-2007; unemployment rates 2007
- Slide 6: Yield curves, 2007
- Slide 7: CEE banking markets: size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 8: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 9: Banking assets evolution by country, 2000-2007, penetration benchmarks 2007
- Slide 10: Top 5 banking groups in Baltic countries, combined market share, 2007
- Slide 11: Retail deposits & loans by country comparison; per capita benchmarks, 2007
- 2. Estonia
- Slide 12: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 13: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 14: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 15: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 16: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 17: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 3. Latvia
- Slide 18: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 19: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 20: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 21: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 22: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 23: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 4. Lithuania
- Slide 24: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 25: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 26: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 27: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 28: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 29: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 5. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 30: Estonia - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- Slide 31: Latvia - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- Slide 32: Lithuania - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- 6. Methodological note
AbstractMacroeconomic situation.The last months of the year 2008 and the first half of 2009 were not particularly successful for Baltic economies. Bursting real estate bubbles, exploding unemployment and dramatic downturns in the GDP -all those factors unfortunately confirm that Baltic countries are among regions most affected by the current worldwide economic crisis. Estonia, Latvia und Lithuania slid into a deep recession very rapidly paying the price for several years of exceptional growth fueled by the excessive use of easily available credit, provided mostly by Scandinavian banks.
Banking markets. Baltic banking markets have been flourishing up to 2007 when the upward trend of the economy halted and the explosive expansion of lending and deposits reversed. However, despite the painful correction, the well developed banking infrastructure including: dense branch, ATM and POS networks, as well as common use of remote banking channels place Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania still among the most advanced banking markets in Central and Eastern Europe. This can be also confirmed by common banking penetration benchmarks , which despite the recent correction still exceed the CEE average.
Competition. In contrary to the rest of CEE, Baltic banking markets have been historically highly concentrated. Top 5 international groups present in all 3 countries control more than 77% of combined banking assets. On the other side lack of major administrative entry barriers and current weakness of major players , makes Baltic markets still an interesting opportunity for new entrants, enabling both M&A or “greenfield” approach.
Perspectives. The recent economic tensions forced governments in Baltic countries to apply radical public spending cuts which contributed to accelerating growth in unemployment and resulted in a true collapse of private consumption. All those factors will obviously drag down the rate of growth in all Baltic countries in the near future. Nevertheless Baltic economies are relatively flexible, viable and of relatively small size, so after the temporary correction, they are likely to resume growth quicker than other larger countries. Intelace Research assumes that both GDP and banking volumes in Baltic countries will keep falling through mid-2010 , when the trend is likely to reverse
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