Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2007

Published by: Simba Information - Reports

Published: Oct. 1, 2006 - 138 Pages

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market

Introduction

Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing

Introduction

The Rise of Children’s Series

Series Case Study: Harry Potter

The Morphine of Motion Picture Tie-Ins

The Growth of Licensing…and the Expected Tapering

Celebrity Author Activity: Not a Growth Engine or a Sure Thing

The Growing Focus on the Teen Market

Recent Children’s Bestsellers

Table 2.1: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2003-2007

Table 2.2: Scholastic Quarterly Revenue, Q3 2003-Q4 2006

Table 2.3: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic, Fiscal 2001-Fiscal 2006

Table 2.4: Polar Express Movie Tie-In Titles, 2004

Table 2.5: New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar’s Holes, 2001-2005

Table 2.6: New York Times Bestsellers Supported by Movie Tie-Ins (non-series), 2001 2005

Table 2.7: Barnes & Noble: Top Children’s Titles of 2004

Table 2.8: Barnes & Noble: Top Children’s Titles of 2005

Chapter 3: New York Times Bestseller Data

Introduction

The Addition of the Series Books List

2005 New York Times Performance: Children’s Books

HarperCollins

Scholastic

Simon & Schuster

Random House

Penguin Group

Time Warner

Table 3.1: Top 10 Publishers, New York Times Bestseller Data, 2001-2005

Table 3.2: New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers by Total Titles, Weeks per Title, Average Weeks per Title, 2005 vs. 2004

Table 3.3: New York Times Children’s Bestseller List Publishers, 2001-2005

Table 3.4: Leading New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers, 2005 vs. 2004

Table 3.5: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Paperback Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005

Table 3.6: New York Times Bestselling Children’s Book Publishers, by Titles and Weeks, 2005

Table 3.7: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Chapter Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005

Table 3.8: New York Times No. 1 Children’s Picture Bestsellers by Longevity, 2005

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction

Revenue Trends

Valuation Trends

Leading Children’s Publishers

Candlewick

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette

Harcourt

HarperCollins

Holtzbrinck

Houghton Mifflin

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House

Scholastic

Simon & Schuster

Size of the Children’s Publishing Market9

Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue

Leading Children’s Publishers by Number of Titles Published

Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Titles Published

Leading Young Adult Publishers by Number of Juvenile Fiction Books

Leading Publishers by Number of Juvenile/ Young Adult Graphic Novels

Table 4.1: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2004-2008P

Table 4.2: Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue, 2004-2008P

Table 4.3: Market Share by Number of Juvenile Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 4.4: Number of Juvenile Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006

Table 4.5: Market Share by Number of Y/A Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 4.6: Number of Y/A Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006

Table 4.7: Number of Y/A Fiction Titles Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006

Table 4.8: Market Share of Juvenile Fiction by Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 4.9: Market Share of Juvenile Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 4.10: Number of Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006

Table 4.11: Market Share of Y/A Graphic Novels by Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 4.12: Number of Y/A Graphic Novels Published, by Top 10 Publishers, 2001-2006

Chapter 5: Title Output Trends

Introduction

Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released

Graphic Novels

Religious Children’s/YA Books

Science Fiction Children’s/YA Books

Children’s and Y/A Titles: Format Trends

Children’s and Y/A Titles: E-Books

Other Formats and Trends

Pricing Trends—Hardcover Children’s Titles

Table 5.1: New Children’s Titles and Young Adult Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005

Table 5.2: Total Juvenile Graphic Novels Published, 2001-2006

Table 5.3: Total Graphic Novels Published for Young Adults, 2001-2006

Table 5.4: Total Juvenile Religious Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 5.5: Total Y/A Religious Titles Published, 2001-2006

Table 5.6: New Children’s Science Fiction Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005

Table 5.7: New Y/A Sci-Fi Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2000-2005

Table 5.8: Total Juvenile and Y/A Hardcover Titles Published, 2001-2005

Table 5.9: Total Juvenile and Y/A Softcover Titles Published, 2001-2005

Table 5.10: Total Mass Market Juvenile and Y/A Titles Published, 2001-2005

Table 5.11: Total Juvenile E-Books Published, 2001-2006

Table 5.12: Total Young Adult E-Books Published, 2001-2006

Table 5.13: All Juvenile Books Published, by Format, 2001-2006

Table 5.14: Number of Juvenile Titles Published, by Format, 2001-2006

Table 5.15: Average Suggested List Prices for Selected Trade Formats, 2005

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction

The Effect of Mass Merchandisers on Children’s Book Retailing

Big Three Chains Posted Improved Results in 2005

Barnes & Noble

Borders Group

Books-A-Million

The Influence of Bookstores on Kids’ Reading Habits

The Growth of Interest in Teen Titles

New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue Emerging

Small Publishers Are Gaining Advantages in a Changing Landscape

Online Bookselling

Amazon.com

Barnes & Noble.com

Borders.com

Books-A-Million.com

Book Clubs, Fairs and Other Non-Retail Sales

Table 6.1: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Stores, 2006

Table 6.2: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2002-2005

Table 6.3: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2002-2005

Table 6.4: Top Three Bookstore Chains’ Operating Performance, 2001-2005

Table 6.5: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2001-2005

Table 6.6: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2003- 2005

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions

Recommendations

Table 7.1: Forecast Children’s Book Sales, 2004-2008P

Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press

Disney Publishing Worldwide

Hachette Book Group

Harcourt

HarperCollins

Holtzbrinck

Houghton Mifflin

Penguin Group (USA)

Random House

Scholastic

Simon & Schuster Inc.

Abstract

• Objective, independent and highly-vetted analysis of the market forces shaping sales trends through 2009
• A 5-year analysis of New York Times® Children's Bestseller List that scrutinizes the trends that have driven the industry's most prestigious and trusted ranking -- and find out what category of books stay on the list 25% longer than any other
• Over 50 charts, graphs and figures, including Simba Information's exclusive growth figures and projections that will assist you determine where to place your investment bets for maximum ROI
• Exhaustive title output trends and analysis drawn from Bowker's Books In Print® and Books In Print® IntelliMarket™ tools. Find out which segments publishers have been pulling back on -- and which ones they're building up
• Comprehensive profiles of the 10 leading children's book publishers that enable you to stay current with the competitive landscape -- with data that includes frontlist and backlist sales breakdown, bestseller history, growth projections, and Simba's assessment of market power
• Comprehensive examination of the trends affecting all players in the industry
• And more

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