Transformer Report Ed 7 2019
The 7th edition of the StatPlan Transformer Report sizes demand for power and distribu-tion transformers in base year 2018 and forecasts sales from 2018 to 2025.
Generator Transformers
Power Network Transformers
Distribution Transformers
Industrial Transformers
The report contains comprehensive analysis of the transformer markets; globally, for all regions and for 78 countries, sales and the installed base by type of transformer and ownership for 2018.
Market analysis of major countries of North America, Europe, CIS, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, LAC.
The report predicts market trends in volume and value from 2018 to 2025.
The long term demand cycle is plotted - depends on new build and historical replacement over decades.
Price trends and factors affecting price are analysed; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy, pro-duction capacity and capacity utilisation.
Transformer production capacity is assessed in MVA by country and major manufacturer.
Production capacity in tonnes and manufacturers of electrical steel are analysed.
Competitive analysis and market shares of the top 21 transformer manufacturers, shares or listings for countries. Does disruption loom as ABB, the largest transformer manufacturer, exits the grid business?
Customer list - utility landscape with transmission and distribution companies listed for 204 countries.
The Grid Edge is already impacting on the transformer mix in distribution networks and this will acceler-ate. The distribution networks are not ready yet. The changing landscape of electricity systems, with the growth of DER and renewables, energy efficiency, electrification and digitalisation are discussed.
Smart transformers, characteristics and technical requirements, inputs to the smart grid, current market up-take.
MEPS - Minimum Energy Performance Standards for transformers are listed for countries which have enacted them and the market for high efficiency transformers analysed.
Load factors and redundancy are essential features of any network. Ignoring this distorts estimates of transformer populations by large factors. Load factors range from 50% to > 100% in networks, reflect-ing levels of redundancy. This is discussed in detail.
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET
- 2. THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S TRANSFORMER FLEEET SEVEN STATPLAN SURVEYS
- 3. TRANSFORMER TYPES - GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMERS
- Power transformers
- Large Power Transformers (LPT)
- Classification according to application
- Generator step-up transformers (GSU)
- System intertie (interconnecting) transformers.
- Distribution Transformers
- Pad mounted distribution transformers
- Industrial transformers
- 4. NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
- Transformer stock
- Composition of demand
- The utility market in the United States
- Transformer market drivers
- Utility investment
- Manufacturing industry review - facilities
- Power transformers
- USA plant
- NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico
- Large power transformers (LPT)
- Medium power transformers
- Distribution transformers
- MV distribution transformer
- Liquid-immersed
- Dry type
- LV distribution transformers
- Dry type
- Amorphous core transformer manufacturers
- Canadian manufacturers
- Purchase considerations and delivery channels
- National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
- CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency
- MEPS standards
- Canadian standards
- 5. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
- Regional overview of the European utility system
- Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry
- Voltage differences in the European distribution networks
- High efficiency transformers
- A changing network landscape - distributed power - smart transformers
- European utility crisis
- Transformer market Drivers
- MEPS Standards
- European transformer manufacturing industry review
- FRANCE
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France
- Transformer manufacturers
- GERMANY
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Market leader - Siemens
- SGB- SMIT
- German utility crisis
- Transformer manufacturers
- ITALY
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- SPAIN
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- SWITZERLAND
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- ABB
- UNITED KINGDOM
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- TURKEY
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- 6. CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
- RUSSIA
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- The Russian power system
- Market drivers
- Russian transformer manufacturers
- Ukrainian transformer manufacturer
- 7. MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS
- IRAN
- Transformer stock
- Transformer manufacturers
- SAUDI ARABIA
- Transformer stock
- Transformer manufacturers
- UAE
- Transformer stock
- Transformer manufacturers
- 8. ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
- Investment as a % of GDP
- CHINA
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- UHV AC and HVDC transformer markets in China
- Chinese suppliers and foreign suppliers
- UHV market participants
- International firms in China’s UHV Market
- Power and distribution transformers ≥ 220 kV ≤ UHV
- Power and distribution transformers ≤ 220 kV
- Distribution transformers for MV and LV distribution
- Market drivers
- MEPS Standards
- The structure of the Chinese power sector
- Manufacturing industry review
- JAPAN
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- MEPS Standards
- Transformer manufacturers
- Overseas production
- INDIA
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Electrification
- Captive generation
- Market drivers
- MEPS Standards
- Manufacturing industry review
- Capacity and utilisation
- INDONESIA
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- KOREA
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- TAIWAN
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- THAILAND
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Transformer manufacturers
- 9. LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
- BRAZIL
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- Manufacturing industry review
- MEXICO
- Annual demand power and distribution transformers
- Transformer stock
- Market drivers
- MEPS Standards
- Transformer manufacturers
- 10. THE VALUE CHAIN - FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX
- The value chain at 6 levels
- Sales channels
- Utilities
- Manufacturers’ direct sales
- Distributor sales
- Industry
- Raw material inputs
- 11. THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE
- 12. TRANSFORMER SALES AT RETAIL PRICE AND INSTALLED COST
- 13. GSU, UTILITY & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
- 14. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
- THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
- Stage 1
- Stage 2
- Stage 3
- Stage 4
- Network configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems
- Industry
- Review of regional utility network practices - The link from medium voltage to low voltage
- North America
- Japan
- Europe
- Types of transformer
- Liquid dielectric transformers
- Dry-type transformers
- Gas filled transformers
- Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity
- Ownership of power and distribution transformers
- Ownership of GSU transformers
- 15. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
- INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND
- The China Factor
- 16. TRANSFORMER:GENERATOR RATIOS - MVA:MW
- 17. SMART TRANSFORMERS
- Smart transformers and the smart grid
- Basic characteristics of smart transformers
- The basic technical requirements of smart transformers
- Intelligent transformer substations
- Smart transformer in current infrastructure
- Dissolved gas analysis (DGA)
- 18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
- Network failure
- Transformer failure
- Industrial reliability
- Levels of redundancy
- Network reliability
- N-1 and the networks
- Reliability standards SAIFI and SAIDI
- Electricity transmission
- Large power transformers (LPTs)
- Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution
- 19. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
- PPI - Producer Price Index
- USA
- EU
- China
- Japan
- Factors impacting on manufacturing cost and selling price of transformers
- Manufacturing cost
- Selling price
- Cost of materials
- The core - electrical steel
- Amorphous steel
- The coil - windings - copper and aluminium
- Advantages of copper windings
- Disadvantages of copper windings
- Advantages of aluminium windings
- Disadvantages of aluminium windings
- Transformer oil
- Fluctuations in commodity prices
- Demand for transformers, market and industry trends
- Production capacity and utilisation
- 20. CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
- Trends in the generation mix
- The impact of generation developments on transformation technology
- Decentralised power
- Czech Republic
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- 21. MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
- MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards)
- United States
- Efficiency regulations
- Canada
- Brazil
- Mexico
- European Union
- The European Norms EN50588-1:2014 and EU No 548/2014 apply.
- Australia and New Zealand
- Israel
- Vietnam
- Japan
- China
- Korea
- India
- Summary of efficiency standards
- 22. HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
- Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers
- The market for AMTs
- AMT manufacturers
- Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers
- Amorphous metal transformers - AMTs
- Japan
- China
- United States
- India
- Taiwan
- Other
- HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers
- 23. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
- MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION
- Capacity utilisation
- North America (United States, Canada)
- Europe
- CIS
- Mexico
- Latin America (excluding Mexico)
- China
- India
- Korea
- Africa
- South Africa
- 24. GLOBAL MARKET SHARE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS
- 25. LOGISTICS
- 1. Design of transformers
- 2. Preparation of a Transformer
- 3. Faults or damages to transformers
- 4. Voyage Assessment
- 5. Transport execution
- 6. Handling
- 7. Securing
- Rail transport
- North America
- Europe
- Africa
- Asia Pacific
- Road transport
- Rear wheel drive
- Clearance
- Alternative solutions
- 26. ELECTRIFICATION
- Sub-Saharan Africa
- Asia
- MENA
- Latin America
- Europe
- CIS
- North America
- The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry
- METHODOLOGY
- Short term demand forecast
- Long term demand cycle
- Demand cycles and the market
- StatPlan Energy Databases
- Transformation capacity
- Review of the transformer databases
- 1. Utility/industry ownership
- 2. The proportion of GSU/transmission PTs
- 3. Redundancy.
- Figures
- Figure 1: Annual growth of the transformer market in volume and value, 2018-2025
- Figure 2: The global transformer fleet 2012-2017, generator and transformer capacity
- Figure 3: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017
- Figure 4: LPT, 265 MVA, 525 kV
- Figure 5: MPT 60 MVA, 275 kV.
- Figure 6: SPT with 12.5 MVA with OLTC ( On-Load Tap Changer)
- Figure 7: An 800 kV UHVDC converter transformer by ABB
- Figure 8: Oil-filled distribution transformer,
- Figure 9: Dry-type distribution transformer
- Figure 10: Pad-mounted distribution transformer
- Figure 11: A pole top distribution transformer
- Figure 12: Ratio of distribution transformers to generating capacity, installed base 1960-2016
- Figure 13: Imports of power transformers (Oil filled ≥ 10 MVA), into the United States from Canada, Mexico and Korea 2000-2017 $ value
- Figure 14: Distribution voltages in Europe (EU 27)
- Figure 15: Market capitalisation of seleced European utilities
- Figure 16: Investment as a % of GDP, selected countries and economic groupings, 1980-2020
- Figure 17: Market shares for UHV AC and HVDC transformers in China
- Figure 18: Market shares of leading transformer manufacturers for SGCC’s HV, MV and LV tenders
- Figure 19: Production, consumption and exports of distribution transformers in China, 2006-2017
- Figure 20: Structure of the Chinese electric power industry
- Figure 21: An example of an electricity network
- Figure 22: The UK electrical power transmission and distribution system
- Figure 23: The traditional centralised electricity system compared with distributed power
- Figure 24: Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA
- Figure 25: Proportion of capacity (MVA) generator, utility and private industry ownership of power and distribution transformers by region, 2018
- Figure 26: Installed capacity of power and distribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 27: Global installed transformation capacity and demand, GVA, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 28: The cycle of demand, new and replacement capacity, GVA, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 29: Global utility transformation capacity installed base by region, GVA, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 30: Demand for power and distribution transformers, China and the World, GVA, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 31: Regional variation in long term demand, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 32: Conventional grid with unidirectional power flow
- Figure 33: Active distribution grid with intelligent transformer substations
- Figure 34:, Producer Price Indeces for power and distribution transformers in the US 1967-2018
- Figure 35: EU 28 Producer Price Index for industrial manufactures 2012 to Q2 - 2018
- Figure 36: China Producer Price Index for industrial goods 2009 to 2018, 2009 = 100
- Figure 37: Japan Producer Price Index for electrical machinery and equipment 1996 to 2018
- Figure 38: The manufacturing processes for CRGO and CNRGO
- Figure 39: Copper prices 1970 to 2020
- Figure 40: Aluminium prices 1970 to 2020
- Figure 41: Transformer commodity price index 2009 to 2018
- Figure 42: Global generating capacity mix, 1990 - 2050
- Figure 43: Global generating capacity mix by energy source, 1990 - 2050
- Figure 44: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
- Figure 45: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
- Figure 46: Global market share power and distribution transformers, $ value, 2018
- Figure 47: Two Schnabel cars unloaded
- Figure 48: Schnabel car with load
- Figure 49: The largest load ever transported by road in the United Kingdom
- Figure 50: Goldhofer heavy duty load
- Figure 51: Goldhofer rear wheel drive vehicle
- Figure 52: The trailer approaches a narrow turning
- Figure 53: The trailer’s rear wheels begin the turn
- Figure 54: The trailer has turned the corner
- Figure 55: Overhead obstructions
- Figure 56: Transformer off the road
- Figure 57: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2016
- Figure 58: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 59: World electrification – number and % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 60: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 61: Selected major countries – Number of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
- Figure 62: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050
- Figure 63: Additions of electrified households in each decade by region, 2010 to 2050
- Figure 64: Diagram of new plus total replacement capacity
- Tables
- Table 1: Transformer demand, GVA and $ in real and nominal values, 2018-25
- Table 2: World transformer demand forecast, 2018-2025, GVA
- Table 3: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
- Table 4: World transformer demand forecast,
- Table 5: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost,
- Table 6: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017,
- Table 7: North America, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025
- Table 8: North America, power and distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
- Table 9: North America, power transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
- Table 10: North America, distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
- Table 11: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 12: Detailed shipment data for power and distribution transformers in the US, 2009
- Table 13: Market shares of Power Transformer Producers in the United States, 2015
- Table 14: Europe, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
- Table 15: Europe, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 16: Europe, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 17: Europe, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 18: French power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 19: German power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 20: Italian power and distribution transformer stock, 2017
- Table 21: Spanish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 22: Swiss power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 23: UK power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 24: Turkish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 25: CIS, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
- Table 26: CIS, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 27: CIS, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 28: CIS distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 29: Russian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 30: MENA, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
- Table 31: MENA, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 32: MENA, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 33: MENA, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 34: Iranian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 35: Saudi Arabian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 36: UAE power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 37: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025
- Table 38: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 39: Asia Pacific, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 40: Asia Pacific, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 41: Chinese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 42: The operational UHV circuits in China in 2017
- Table 43: UHV circuits under construction in China in 2017
- Table 44: Key Technologies for UHV AC systems
- Table 45: Key technologies for UVH DC systems
- Table 46: Japanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 47: Transformer manufacturers in Japan
- Table 48: Indian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 49: Indian transformer production capacity GVA
- Table 50: Transformer manufacturers in India
- Table 51: Indonesian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 52: Korean power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 53: Taiwanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 54: Thai power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 55: LAC, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
- Table 56: LAC, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 57: LAC, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 58: LAC, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
- Table 59: Brazilian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 60: Mexican power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
- Table 61: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex
- Table 62: Electricity transmission and distribution companies of the world.
- Table 63: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost by region, 2018-2025, $ million
- Table 64: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, World, 2018
- Table 65: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership, World, 2018
- Table 66: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, North America, 2018
- Table 67: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership North America, 2018
- Table 68: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Europe, 2018
- Table 69: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Europe, 2018
- Table 70: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, CIS, 2018
- Table 71: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, CIS, 2018
- Table 72: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018
- Table 73: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018
- Table 74: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018
- Table 75: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018
- Table 76: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
- Table 77: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership Africa, 2017
- Table 78: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, LAC, 2018
- Table 79: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, LAC, 2018
- Table 80: Average consumers per LV distribution transformer in selected countries, 2018
- Table 81: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), World, 2018
- Table 82: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe, 2018
- Table 83: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS, 2018
- Table 84: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East and North Africa, 2018
- Table 85: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), S-S Africa, 2018
- Table 86: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific, 2018
- Table 87: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), North America, 2018
- Table 88: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Latin America, 2018
- Table 89: Cost of materials.
- Table 90: Voltage level of for connection to the grid, German rules
- Table 91: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Czech Republic, 2012
- Table 92: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Germany, 2012
- Table 93: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Italy, 2012
- Table 94: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Spain, 2012
- Table 95: Network losses by region
- Table 96: The vast majority of countries have yet to take such action.
- Table 97: A summary of liquid filled distribution transformer efficiency programmes
- Table 98:Summary of dry-type distribution transformer efficiency programmes
- Table 99: Manufacturers of energy efficient transformers in China, 2013
- Table 100: World production capacity for transformers, GVA, 2019
- Table 101: Global leaders’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019
- Table 102: CIS, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2013
- Table 103: China, domestic production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019
- Table 104: India, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2007 - 2019
- Table 105: Population and electrical parameters of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa