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Transformer Report Ed 7 2019

Transformer Report Ed 7 2019

The 7th edition of the StatPlan Transformer Report sizes demand for power and distribu-tion transformers in base year 2018 and forecasts sales from 2018 to 2025.

Generator Transformers
Power Network Transformers
Distribution Transformers
Industrial Transformers

The report contains comprehensive analysis of the transformer markets; globally, for all regions and for 78 countries, sales and the installed base by type of transformer and ownership for 2018.

Market analysis of major countries of North America, Europe, CIS, Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, LAC.

The report predicts market trends in volume and value from 2018 to 2025.

The long term demand cycle is plotted - depends on new build and historical replacement over decades.

Price trends and factors affecting price are analysed; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy, pro-duction capacity and capacity utilisation.

Transformer production capacity is assessed in MVA by country and major manufacturer.

Production capacity in tonnes and manufacturers of electrical steel are analysed.

Competitive analysis and market shares of the top 21 transformer manufacturers, shares or listings for countries. Does disruption loom as ABB, the largest transformer manufacturer, exits the grid business?

Customer list - utility landscape with transmission and distribution companies listed for 204 countries.

The Grid Edge is already impacting on the transformer mix in distribution networks and this will acceler-ate. The distribution networks are not ready yet. The changing landscape of electricity systems, with the growth of DER and renewables, energy efficiency, electrification and digitalisation are discussed.

Smart transformers, characteristics and technical requirements, inputs to the smart grid, current market up-take.

MEPS - Minimum Energy Performance Standards for transformers are listed for countries which have enacted them and the market for high efficiency transformers analysed.

Load factors and redundancy are essential features of any network. Ignoring this distorts estimates of transformer populations by large factors. Load factors range from 50% to > 100% in networks, reflect-ing levels of redundancy. This is discussed in detail.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET
2. THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S TRANSFORMER FLEEET SEVEN STATPLAN SURVEYS
3. TRANSFORMER TYPES - GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMERS
Power transformers
Large Power Transformers (LPT)
Classification according to application
Generator step-up transformers (GSU)
System intertie (interconnecting) transformers.
Distribution Transformers
Pad mounted distribution transformers
Industrial transformers
4. NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
Transformer stock
Composition of demand
The utility market in the United States
Transformer market drivers
Utility investment
Manufacturing industry review - facilities
Power transformers
USA plant
NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico
Large power transformers (LPT)
Medium power transformers
Distribution transformers
MV distribution transformer
Liquid-immersed
Dry type
LV distribution transformers
Dry type
Amorphous core transformer manufacturers
Canadian manufacturers
Purchase considerations and delivery channels
National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency
MEPS standards
Canadian standards
5. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Regional overview of the European utility system
Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry
Voltage differences in the European distribution networks
High efficiency transformers
A changing network landscape - distributed power - smart transformers
European utility crisis
Transformer market Drivers
MEPS Standards
European transformer manufacturing industry review
FRANCE
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France
Transformer manufacturers
GERMANY
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Market leader - Siemens
SGB- SMIT
German utility crisis
Transformer manufacturers
ITALY
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
SPAIN
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
SWITZERLAND
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
ABB
UNITED KINGDOM
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
TURKEY
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
6. CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
RUSSIA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
The Russian power system
Market drivers
Russian transformer manufacturers
Ukrainian transformer manufacturer
7. MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS
IRAN
Transformer stock
Transformer manufacturers
SAUDI ARABIA
Transformer stock
Transformer manufacturers
UAE
Transformer stock
Transformer manufacturers
8. ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
Investment as a % of GDP
CHINA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
UHV AC and HVDC transformer markets in China
Chinese suppliers and foreign suppliers
UHV market participants
International firms in China’s UHV Market
Power and distribution transformers ≥ 220 kV ≤ UHV
Power and distribution transformers ≤ 220 kV
Distribution transformers for MV and LV distribution
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
The structure of the Chinese power sector
Manufacturing industry review
JAPAN
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Transformer manufacturers
Overseas production
INDIA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Electrification
Captive generation
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Manufacturing industry review
Capacity and utilisation
INDONESIA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
KOREA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
TAIWAN
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
THAILAND
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Transformer manufacturers
9. LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
BRAZIL
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
Manufacturing industry review
MEXICO
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
Transformer stock
Market drivers
MEPS Standards
Transformer manufacturers
10. THE VALUE CHAIN - FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX
The value chain at 6 levels
Sales channels
Utilities
Manufacturers’ direct sales
Distributor sales
Industry
Raw material inputs
11. THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE
12. TRANSFORMER SALES AT RETAIL PRICE AND INSTALLED COST
13. GSU, UTILITY & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
14. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Network configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems
Industry
Review of regional utility network practices - The link from medium voltage to low voltage
North America
Japan
Europe
Types of transformer
Liquid dielectric transformers
Dry-type transformers
Gas filled transformers
Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity
Ownership of power and distribution transformers
Ownership of GSU transformers
15. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND
The China Factor
16. TRANSFORMER:GENERATOR RATIOS - MVA:MW
17. SMART TRANSFORMERS
Smart transformers and the smart grid
Basic characteristics of smart transformers
The basic technical requirements of smart transformers
Intelligent transformer substations
Smart transformer in current infrastructure
Dissolved gas analysis (DGA)
18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Network failure
Transformer failure
Industrial reliability
Levels of redundancy
Network reliability
N-1 and the networks
Reliability standards SAIFI and SAIDI
Electricity transmission
Large power transformers (LPTs)
Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
19. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
PPI - Producer Price Index
USA
EU
China
Japan
Factors impacting on manufacturing cost and selling price of transformers
Manufacturing cost
Selling price
Cost of materials
The core - electrical steel
Amorphous steel
The coil - windings - copper and aluminium
Advantages of copper windings
Disadvantages of copper windings
Advantages of aluminium windings
Disadvantages of aluminium windings
Transformer oil
Fluctuations in commodity prices
Demand for transformers, market and industry trends
Production capacity and utilisation
20. CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
Trends in the generation mix
The impact of generation developments on transformation technology
Decentralised power
Czech Republic
Germany
Italy
Spain
21. MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards)
United States
Efficiency regulations
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
European Union
The European Norms EN50588-1:2014 and EU No 548/2014 apply.
Australia and New Zealand
Israel
Vietnam
Japan
China
Korea
India
Summary of efficiency standards
22. HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers
The market for AMTs
AMT manufacturers
Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers
Amorphous metal transformers - AMTs
Japan
China
United States
India
Taiwan
Other
HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers
23. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION
Capacity utilisation
North America (United States, Canada)
Europe
CIS
Mexico
Latin America (excluding Mexico)
China
India
Korea
Africa
South Africa
24. GLOBAL MARKET SHARE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS
25. LOGISTICS
1. Design of transformers
2. Preparation of a Transformer
3. Faults or damages to transformers
4. Voyage Assessment
5. Transport execution
6. Handling
7. Securing
Rail transport
North America
Europe
Africa
Asia Pacific
Road transport
Rear wheel drive
Clearance
Alternative solutions
26. ELECTRIFICATION
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
MENA
Latin America
Europe
CIS
North America
The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry
METHODOLOGY
Short term demand forecast
Long term demand cycle
Demand cycles and the market
StatPlan Energy Databases
Transformation capacity
Review of the transformer databases
1. Utility/industry ownership
2. The proportion of GSU/transmission PTs
3. Redundancy.
Figures
Figure 1: Annual growth of the transformer market in volume and value, 2018-2025
Figure 2: The global transformer fleet 2012-2017, generator and transformer capacity
Figure 3: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017
Figure 4: LPT, 265 MVA, 525 kV
Figure 5: MPT 60 MVA, 275 kV.
Figure 6: SPT with 12.5 MVA with OLTC ( On-Load Tap Changer)
Figure 7: An 800 kV UHVDC converter transformer by ABB
Figure 8: Oil-filled distribution transformer,
Figure 9: Dry-type distribution transformer
Figure 10: Pad-mounted distribution transformer
Figure 11: A pole top distribution transformer
Figure 12: Ratio of distribution transformers to generating capacity, installed base 1960-2016
Figure 13: Imports of power transformers (Oil filled ≥ 10 MVA), into the United States from Canada, Mexico and Korea 2000-2017 $ value
Figure 14: Distribution voltages in Europe (EU 27)
Figure 15: Market capitalisation of seleced European utilities
Figure 16: Investment as a % of GDP, selected countries and economic groupings, 1980-2020
Figure 17: Market shares for UHV AC and HVDC transformers in China
Figure 18: Market shares of leading transformer manufacturers for SGCC’s HV, MV and LV tenders
Figure 19: Production, consumption and exports of distribution transformers in China, 2006-2017
Figure 20: Structure of the Chinese electric power industry
Figure 21: An example of an electricity network
Figure 22: The UK electrical power transmission and distribution system
Figure 23: The traditional centralised electricity system compared with distributed power
Figure 24: Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA
Figure 25: Proportion of capacity (MVA) generator, utility and private industry ownership of power and distribution transformers by region, 2018
Figure 26: Installed capacity of power and distribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 27: Global installed transformation capacity and demand, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 28: The cycle of demand, new and replacement capacity, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 29: Global utility transformation capacity installed base by region, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 30: Demand for power and distribution transformers, China and the World, GVA, 1900 - 2050
Figure 31: Regional variation in long term demand, 1900 - 2050
Figure 32: Conventional grid with unidirectional power flow
Figure 33: Active distribution grid with intelligent transformer substations
Figure 34:, Producer Price Indeces for power and distribution transformers in the US 1967-2018
Figure 35: EU 28 Producer Price Index for industrial manufactures 2012 to Q2 - 2018
Figure 36: China Producer Price Index for industrial goods 2009 to 2018, 2009 = 100
Figure 37: Japan Producer Price Index for electrical machinery and equipment 1996 to 2018
Figure 38: The manufacturing processes for CRGO and CNRGO
Figure 39: Copper prices 1970 to 2020
Figure 40: Aluminium prices 1970 to 2020
Figure 41: Transformer commodity price index 2009 to 2018
Figure 42: Global generating capacity mix, 1990 - 2050
Figure 43: Global generating capacity mix by energy source, 1990 - 2050
Figure 44: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 45: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013
Figure 46: Global market share power and distribution transformers, $ value, 2018
Figure 47: Two Schnabel cars unloaded
Figure 48: Schnabel car with load
Figure 49: The largest load ever transported by road in the United Kingdom
Figure 50: Goldhofer heavy duty load
Figure 51: Goldhofer rear wheel drive vehicle
Figure 52: The trailer approaches a narrow turning
Figure 53: The trailer’s rear wheels begin the turn
Figure 54: The trailer has turned the corner
Figure 55: Overhead obstructions
Figure 56: Transformer off the road
Figure 57: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2016
Figure 58: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
Figure 59: World electrification – number and % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
Figure 60: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
Figure 61: Selected major countries – Number of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050
Figure 62: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050
Figure 63: Additions of electrified households in each decade by region, 2010 to 2050
Figure 64: Diagram of new plus total replacement capacity
Tables
Table 1: Transformer demand, GVA and $ in real and nominal values, 2018-25
Table 2: World transformer demand forecast, 2018-2025, GVA
Table 3: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
Table 4: World transformer demand forecast,
Table 5: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost,
Table 6: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017,
Table 7: North America, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025
Table 8: North America, power and distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
Table 9: North America, power transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
Table 10: North America, distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity
Table 11: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 12: Detailed shipment data for power and distribution transformers in the US, 2009
Table 13: Market shares of Power Transformer Producers in the United States, 2015
Table 14: Europe, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
Table 15: Europe, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 16: Europe, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 17: Europe, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 18: French power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 19: German power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 20: Italian power and distribution transformer stock, 2017
Table 21: Spanish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 22: Swiss power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 23: UK power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 24: Turkish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 25: CIS, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
Table 26: CIS, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 27: CIS, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 28: CIS distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 29: Russian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 30: MENA, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
Table 31: MENA, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 32: MENA, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 33: MENA, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 34: Iranian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 35: Saudi Arabian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 36: UAE power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 37: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025
Table 38: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 39: Asia Pacific, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 40: Asia Pacific, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 41: Chinese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 42: The operational UHV circuits in China in 2017
Table 43: UHV circuits under construction in China in 2017
Table 44: Key Technologies for UHV AC systems
Table 45: Key technologies for UVH DC systems
Table 46: Japanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 47: Transformer manufacturers in Japan
Table 48: Indian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 49: Indian transformer production capacity GVA
Table 50: Transformer manufacturers in India
Table 51: Indonesian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 52: Korean power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 53: Taiwanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 54: Thai power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 55: LAC, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
Table 56: LAC, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 57: LAC, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 58: LAC, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA
Table 59: Brazilian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 60: Mexican power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
Table 61: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex
Table 62: Electricity transmission and distribution companies of the world.
Table 63: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost by region, 2018-2025, $ million
Table 64: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, World, 2018
Table 65: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership, World, 2018
Table 66: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, North America, 2018
Table 67: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and ownership North America, 2018
Table 68: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Europe, 2018
Table 69: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Europe, 2018
Table 70: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, CIS, 2018
Table 71: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, CIS, 2018
Table 72: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018
Table 73: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018
Table 74: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018
Table 75: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018
Table 76: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
Table 77: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership Africa, 2017
Table 78: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by country and ownership, LAC, 2018
Table 79: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and ownership, LAC, 2018
Table 80: Average consumers per LV distribution transformer in selected countries, 2018
Table 81: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), World, 2018
Table 82: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe, 2018
Table 83: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS, 2018
Table 84: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East and North Africa, 2018
Table 85: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), S-S Africa, 2018
Table 86: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific, 2018
Table 87: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), North America, 2018
Table 88: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Latin America, 2018
Table 89: Cost of materials.
Table 90: Voltage level of for connection to the grid, German rules
Table 91: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Czech Republic, 2012
Table 92: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Germany, 2012
Table 93: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Italy, 2012
Table 94: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Spain, 2012
Table 95: Network losses by region
Table 96: The vast majority of countries have yet to take such action.
Table 97: A summary of liquid filled distribution transformer efficiency programmes
Table 98:Summary of dry-type distribution transformer efficiency programmes
Table 99: Manufacturers of energy efficient transformers in China, 2013
Table 100: World production capacity for transformers, GVA, 2019
Table 101: Global leaders’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019
Table 102: CIS, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2013
Table 103: China, domestic production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019
Table 104: India, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2007 - 2019
Table 105: Population and electrical parameters of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

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