Banking Market Research Reports & Industry Analysis

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine by 0.5ppts to 2% y/y. We estimate GDP growth in 2025 likely slowed to 1.8% y/y, limited by the escalated Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. We estimate that the resulting energy shortages caused a 2ppts drag on growth in Q4 ...

We have kept our 2026 Czech GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, but think risks are skewed modestly to the upside. The economy grew 0.5% q/q in Q4 last year, in line with our expectations, resulting in a 0.9ppts carryover into 2026. However, growth remains mostly driven by consumer spending, with investmen ...

We've kept our 2026 GDP forecast unchanged at 3.8%, following the just-confirmed 3.6% expansion last year. The near-full set of Q4 data indicates that the economy has maintained its strong momentum, likely carrying this over into 2026. We consider risks to be skewed to stronger growth, with GDP ...

We forecast Malaysia’s GDP growth will ease modestly to 4.3% in 2026. The effects of higher US tariffs will likely temper the economy's momentum, but strong electrical and electronic product (E&E) exports, driven by AI-led global capex, and resilient onshore data centre investment activity, ...

We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Indonesia at 5.1%. A recently-soft US dollar is helping to mask the rupiah's vulnerability; against most other major currencies the rupiah has continued to decline. Meanwhile, economic activity will be supported by policy amid uneven domestic demand a ...

We've kept our 2026 Hungary GDP growth forecast at 1.9%, after a 0.3% expansion in 2025. GDP returned to growth in Q4, but at a mere 0.2% q/q it undershot our and consensus call of a 0.5% q/q pick-up. However, improving sentiment and expected pre-electoral transfers supporting near-term spending ...

We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam at 7.4% y/y. Stronger public capex and the global AI-driven tech cycle are sustaining momentum. However, headline growth should moderate as consumption slightly eases and higher tariffs affect export growth. Overheating risks are present, especial ...

We raised our forecast for Singapore's GDP growth this year by 1.4ppts to 4.5%, down from 4.8% growth in 2025. Our revision reflects stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2025. Robust momentum could persist for some time, leaving the output gap positive. But a still-turbulent external environm ...

We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Israel by 1ppt to 5.2% in 2026 and 0.5ppts to 4.3% in 2027. In our view, very solid underlying economic fundamentals will reassert themselves as the impact of the conflict with Hamas continues to fade. This will support a further easing in supply constra ...

Bulgaria In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Bulgaria provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Bu ...

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell at the helm of the central bank. The announcement doesn't warrant a change to our forecast, as it will be difficult for a single person to sway a divided committee in a more dovish direction. ...

Our 2026 GDP growth outlook for the UAE stands at 4.8%, with risks skewed to the upside. We expect weaker oil prices and production freezes will weigh on the UAE's oil GDP in H1, which we expect to grow by 3.6%. Additionally, input price pressures are being reported across the non-oil private se ...

We've lowered our 2026 growth forecast for Thailand by 0.1ppt to 1.5% this year, after an estimated 2% expansion in 2025. ...

We don't expect December's sharp drop in mortgage approvals to mark the start of a UK housing market downturn. December is a low activity month with a big seasonal adjustment, and this weakness will likely be revised away or prove to be a one-off. Mortgage affordability has improved signific ...

Libya In-depth PEST Insights Summary This PEST country analysis report on Libya provides a holistic view of the country, with insightful analysis of current and future issues, supplemented with relevant quantitative data to support trend analysis. Synopsis Understand the political system in Libya th ...

We've kept our 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 2.2%, but there's increasing downside risk coming from US trade policy and the emerging weakness in domestic demand. The latter may materialise in the absence of the supportive fiscal stimulus that we expect this year. ...

As Asia shifts from disinflation to modest reflation, the room for further monetary easing is narrow. We expect core inflation to edge higher as domestic activity gathers steam. ...

Economic activity is expected to expand at a solid pace this year. Non-oil growth of 4.9% is the main driver, supported by resilient domestic demand. Oil-sector activity is expected to contribute more modestly amid production discipline. Overall, GDP growth is projected at 4.3% in 2026. This is slig ...

We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Croatia by 0.4ppts to 3%. Based on high-frequency data, the economy grew strongly in Q4 2025, mechanically lifting our forecast for this year. But we have also raised our projection for long-term average GDP growth by around 0.1ppt, with strong private ...

We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.3% in 2026, after growing by 1.0% in 2025. Trade policy uncertainty will discourage businesses from investing. Tariffs will lower Belgium's direct exports to the US by making them more expensive and hit demand for Belgian-produced inputs into othe ...

We still forecast Switzerland's sporting event-adjusted GDP to grow by a below-consensus 0.9% pace in 2026. The subdued growth outlook follows an estimated 1.4% expansion in 2025. The important pharmaceutical production will lose some momentum compared to 2025 as the front-loading of exports ahe ...

We raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.5ppts to 3.5% y/y, 0.7ppts above the consensus. We expect strong consumer spending growth this year of 3.4% y/y due to the surprise 23% minimum wage increase and delayed government fiscal tightening. A historically low unemployment rate and 20 ...

Our forecast for Romania's GDP growth in 2026 remains unchanged at 1.6%. However, severe downside risks to growth remain, with the budget announcement on the way and natural gas price cap expiring . ...

Retail Banking Regional Report: Middle East and Africa 2025 Summary This report offers a comprehensive analysis of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) retail banking market, focusing on financial performance, competitive dynamics, and customer relationships. It explores the impact of digital banking an ...

We have kept our GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway in 2026 at 1.4%. We project quarterly mainland GDP growth will average 0.4% throughout 2026. Supportive fiscal policy and improving consumer confidence are key drivers, but weak external demand and tight monetary policy will limit growth momen ...