Communications and Intelligent Car Markets, Standardization, Technologies

Communications and Intelligent Car Markets, Standardization, Technologies

This report updates and extends the Practel Intelligent Car project.

Though never managing to accurately predict what each forthcoming generation of mobile technology should deliver to satisfy future users, the industry has nonetheless reached some consensus on the use cases for 5G communications; and among them - facilitating the use of mobile networks by connected or autonomous cars expected to figure large in 5G thinking. There is a common notion the industry is hoping that 5G will solve problems we don't have today, but those that could hold us back years in the future – and one of the best examples to such a statement is a driverless car.

  • This particular report addresses the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) progress in reaching its ultimate goal - to make a car “intelligent” enough to safely drive without a human participation. It also updates the status of a driverless car development in connection with transition to the 5G era: the industry identified driverless cars as most viable form of ITS, dominating the roadways by 2035-2040 and sparking dramatic changes in vehicular travel. The report discusses the specifics of the 5G era as they are seen by the industry and academy at the present time with emphasis on what 5G technologies can bring to the driverless car.
  • Such a car was considered by many as a scientists’ dream only 10-15 years ago; now it is a reality and all predictions are that driverless cars hit the roads in 6-8 years; with commercial introduction already in 2017-2018. Fully developed driverless car needs support of communications systems evolving in the transition to 5G; and these two developments are interrelated - a driverless car becomes a 5G use case.
The report provides overview of the current status of the driverless car development, pictures the future steps, which the industry is planning, analyzes roadblocks, and emphasizes the importance of standardization – several organizations are working in this direction. The analysis concentrates on technological and marketing aspects of driverless cars and also on the status of the industry.

The survey of driverless cars projects currently underway is conducted; as well as the survey of related patents (2015-2017). Initial marketing statistics are developed.
  • The detailed analysis of two important components of a driverless car: a) lidar (one of the main components of ADAS - Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and b) the communications gear - “connected car” - is performed.
A driverless car, for simplicity, may be described as a combination of a connected car and ADAS; and other parts. The ADAS important part is driverless car “eyes” – an instrument that can “see” surroundings and provide the information to the car for the analysis and taking relevant actions. One of most promising technologies that make cars “to see” is lidar, which is composed of laser and other parts. The report provides the detailed analysis of lidar technical and marketing characteristics and the survey of the industry.

The detailed analysis of connected cars specifics, standardization, technical characteristics and economics are presented in this report. The companies – contributors to the connected car market development – are identified and their portfolios are analyzed.

The report also emphasizes the importance of 5G mobile networking as a basis for driverless car ITS revolution. With “ultimate” ITS, it is expected that safety on the roads will be drastically improved and the society will be free from massive amount of injuries and deaths on the roads as well as from damages to the economy due to accidents and traffic jams.

The report is intended for technical and managerial staff involved in the advanced ITS development; and for specialists in communications technologies who support such a development.

1.0 Introduction
1.1 Overview
1.2 Report Goal
1.3 Report Scope
1.4 Research Methodology
1.5 Target Audience
2.0 ITS: Roads to Perfection
2.1 Response
2.2 Structure
2.3 ITS Key Technologies
2.4 ITS Main Subsystems – Driverless Car Basis
2.5 ITS Standardization: In Progress
2.5.1 Overview
2.5.2 ETSI - Europe
2.5.3 U.S. General National Transportation Communications for ITS Protocol (NTCIP)
2.5.4 International General ITU
2.5.5 Summary
2.6 ITS Applications
2.6.1 V2V and V2I
2.6.2 Intelligent Vehicles
2.7 ITS Market Statistics
2.7.1 General
2.7.2 Estimate
3.0 Connected Car
3.1 General – Definition
3.1.1 Driving Forces
3.2 Alternatives: Technologies
3.2.1 Connected Car - 5.9 GHz DSRC General - History Recent Developments Efforts Place Structure and Protocols Requirements Milestones IEEE 802.11p General Objectives and Status ASTM Contributions Characteristics IEEE 1609 General Overview IEEE 1609 in Use ETSI ITS-G5 – Major Features ISO and DSRC Components and Procedures Components Procedures Major Applications EPS Spectrum – DSRC Channels Designation Services Major Services Service Categories/QoS Service Requirements Summary: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics Market Segment and Industry Market Drivers Market Requirements Market Estimate - 5.9 GHz DSRC Industry Industry Coalition Recent Progress Vendors
Arinc (Rockwell Collins)
Cohda Wireless
NXP (Qualcomm-in process of acquisition)
Redpine Signals
3.2.2 Connected Car – Cellular Technologies General 3GPP Activities D2D Communications C-V2X Broadcast Performance Comparison
3.2.3 Two Technologies – Two Opinions Governments Comparison
3.2.4 Functional Technologies Over the Air (OTA) Updates
3.2.5 Major Applications
3.2.6 Policies
3.2.7 Choices
3.2.8 Network Requirements
3.2.9 Market: Connected Car
3.2.10 Industry
Airbiquity Inc.
MobilEye (Intel Company)
Sierra Wireless
Wind River
3.2.11 Connected Car – Industry Groups and Alliances Open Automotive Alliance 4G Venture Forum for Connected Cars Apple – iOS in the Car
3.2.12 Standards and Regulations Joint Efforts EU U.S. WWW Consortium SAE GSMA Connected Car Forum Car Connectivity Consortium
4.0 5G Era
4.1 5G Timetable (3GPP-ITU)
4.2 Contributors
4.3 5G Activity Survey
4.3.1 Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) Ltd 5G White Paper
4.3.2 5G-PPP (5G Public Private Partnership)
4.3.3 5G Americas
4.3.4 GSMA GSMA Report Vision The Evolution: From 4G to 5G 5G Use Cases
4.3.5 Verizon 5G Technology Forum (TF)
4.3.6 3GPP – New Radio (NR)
5.0 5G Technologies – Main Features
5.1 Look into the Future
5.2 Promising Directions
5.2.1 Requirements
5.2.2 Common Views 5G Spectrum
5.2.3 Future – Starts Today
5.3 Issues
5.4 Use Cases
5.4.1 General –Characteristics
5.4.2 Mobile Broadband
5.4.3 Automotive
5.4.4 Smart Society
6.0 Driverless Car – Developments
6.1 Growing Together
6.2 Directions and Issues
6.3 ADAS
6.4 Current Status – Legislation and Insurance
6.5 Major Benefits
6.6 Solutions
6.7 Market Projections and Price
6.8 Phases
6.8.1 Required Characteristics
6.9 Industry and R&D
6.9.1 Automakers Audi Ford GM Nissan Daimler/Mercedes VW and AdaptIVe Consortium Volvo Cars Tesla Motors Other
6.9.2 R&D and Competitors Alphabet/Google – ProjectX -Waymo Baidu DOTs Telecom Readiness: Driverless Car - 5G Communications Huawei Swisscom QNX Continental Automotive Nvidia
6.9.3 Sturt-ups Uber
6.10 Standardization
6.10.1 NHTSA
6.10.2 SAE International USA Preparedness
6.10.3 IEEE
6.10.4 Summary
7.0 Lidar
7.1 General
7.1.1 Typical Characteristics
7.2 Structure and Functionalities
7.2.1 Comparison with other Sensors
7.3 Sensors and Bad Weather
7.4 Industry
Ibeo (subsidiary of SICK AG)
Oryx Vision
Osram/Phantom Intelligence
Princeton Lightwave (acquired by GM in 2017)
Waymo (Alphabet)
7.5 Benefits and Limitations
7.6 Market
8.0 Conclusions
Attachment I: Driverless/Connected Car-related Patents Survey (2015-2017)
Figure 1: Wireless Communications: ITS Environment
Figure 2: Europe – Standardization Organizations
Figure 3: U.S. - ITS Standardizations Bodies
Figure 4: NTCIP Structure
Figure 5: International –Standardization Bodies - ITS
Figure 6: Estimate: Global Market - ITS Devices ($B)
Figure 7: Estimate: ITS WICT- Global Market ($B)
Figure 8: ITS Equipment Sales by Regions ($B)
Figure 9: Connected Car - Sensors
Figure 10: 5.9 GHz DSRC – Frequencies Allocation and Channelization
Figure 11: DSRC - Modified Spectrum Proposal
Figure 12: Industry Cooperation
Figure 13: ITS-5.9 GHz DSRC - Illustration
Figure 14: Communications Model: WAVE
Figure 15: 802.11p - Communications
Figure 16: Logical Flow – 5.9 GHz DSRC
Figure 17: Collision Detection/Avoidance System
Figure 18: Work Zone Warning
Figure 19: “Smart” Car
Figure 20: DSRC Worldwide – Spectrum Allocation
Figure 21: DSRC: Spectrum Allocation Details
Figure 22: Channel Assignment – 5.9 GHz DSRC
Figure 23: 5.9 GHz DSRC Transmission Characteristics and Channelization
Figure 24: Spectrum Details – Overlapping Wi-Fi
Figure 25: Major Categories-DSRC Services
Figure 26: 5.9 GHz DSRC Rate vs. Distance
Figure 27: 5.9 GHz DSRC Protocols – Summary
Figure 28: Estimate: 5.9 GHz DSRC Market Size ($B)
Figure 29: C-V2X Modes of Communications
Figure 30: 3GPP Schedule – D2D Communications
Figure 31: D2D Communications – Evolution
Figure 32: LTE ProSe Functions – Discovery and Communications
Figure 33: Connected Car Functionalities
Figure 34: Network Requirements – Connected Car Connectivity
Figure 35: Estimate – Global Market – Connected Car ($B)
Figure 36: Estimate: Global Automotive Wireless Market – Equipment Sales ($B)
Figure 37: Estimate – Global – Service Providers Revenue – Connected Car ($B)
Figure 38: Estimate – Global Sales – Connected Cars (Mil. Units)
Figure 39: Connected Car Penetration – U.S. (%)
Figure 40: Projections: Global Market V2X Technologies in Connected Vehicles ($B)
Figure 41: ITU-R Schedule and Process for IMT-2020
Figure 42: 3GPP – Tentative Timeline – 5G Standardization
Figure 43: Transition - Current View
Figure 44: 5G Spectrum
Figure 45: 5G Technologies Directions
Figure 46: 5G Use Cases-General
Figure 47: 5G Use Cases – Rate of Transmission and Latency
Figure 48: U.S. – Driverless Car Legislative Status (as of 2017)
Figure 49: Estimate: Percentage of Driverless Cars Sold – Global (%)
Figure 50: Evolution Path – Driverless Car
Figure 51: NHTSA Car Automation Levels
Figure 52: Lidar and Radar Properties
Figure 53: Estimate: Global Lidar Market ($B)
Figure 54: Estimate: Global Automotive Lidar Market ($B)
Table 1: ETSI G5 Channels
Table 2: Events Priorities
Table 3: Service Requirements
Table 4: 5.9 GHz DSRC Characteristics
Table 5: LTE - D2D and Broadcast Modes – Performance Comparison
Table 6: Major Parameters – 5.9 GHz DSRC and C-V2X
Table 7: 5G Major Characteristics
Table 8: 5G Use Cases
Table 9: Lidar Characteristics – Automotive Applications
Table 10: Lidar and Video Camera Properties

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